PLUGGING GGING THE E HOL OLES ES IN LEAK EAKAGE: GE: MET ETHODS HODS FOR OR CALCULA CULATING TING LEA EAKA KAGE GE OU OUT OF OF AND D INTO O UPSTR TREAM EAM RES ESIDENTIAL DENTIAL LIGHTING GHTING PROGRA OGRAMS MS Tami Buhr, Opinion Dynamics Amy Buege, Itron
What is Lighting Program Leakage…and Why do Wh o We Ca e Care? e? ▪ Sales of program-discounted bulbs to customers of another utility ▪ Can’t limit sales with upstream program design ▪ Lighting program savings are shrinking as market transforms ▪ Limiting leakage is one way to maximize remaining savings ▪ But first, we need to be confident in how to measure it IEPEC 2017 2
Meas Me asuring uring Leak akage: age: The he Sta tate e of th the Industr dustry ▪ Little consistency in measurement or Mentioned tioned Upstre Up ream am Estima imatio ion application of leakage Res. s. Lighti ting Met ethods hods State Leak akage Descr scrib ibed? d? across country Yes Arkansa sas Yes Yes ▪ Reviewed 11 TRMs and UMP Yes No Illinois inois Yes the UMP Yes No Pennsylv sylvania ia Yes No ▪ Less than half mentioned New York No No Mass ssac achuse setts ts leakage (5 of 12) No No Indiana iana ▪ Only two described No No Texas as leakage methods No No Connec ecticut ticut No No Minneso esota ta ▪ In-store interviews No No Wiscons sconsin in ▪ GIS Analysis No No Ver ermo mont IEPEC 2017 3
Leak akage age Met Metho hods: ds: In-St Store re Cust stomer omer Inter erce cept pt Inter ervie views ws ▪ Estimate leakage by asking customers for the name of their electric utility ▪ Main objective is usually to estimate program free- ridership ▪ Sample stores may not be selected in a manner to accurately estimate secondary objectives such as leakage (coverage bias) ▪ Can only measure leakage out IEPEC 2017 4
Leak akage age Met Metho hods: ds: GIS Analysis alysis ▪ Estimate leakage by mapping participating retailers and utility customers ▪ Define store territories by drawing distance-based buffers around each store ▪ Leakage rate is the percentage of opposing utility households within the buffer ▪ Sales weight the results so that stores with more sales have a greater influence on overall leakage rate IEPEC 2017 5
Leak akage age Met Metho hods: ds: GIS Analysis alysis (2 (2) ▪ Requires simplifying assumptions about customer purchase behavior (questionable internal validity) ▪ Can estimate both leakage out and leakage in, though sales data are required for the most precise estimates IEPEC 2017 6
Two o Met Methods, hods, Two o Uti tilit lities, ies, On One Bo Borde der, , Zero o Wal alls ls ▪ Ameren Illinois Company (AIC) and Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) ▪ Estimate leakage along the AIC/ComEd border using intercepts and GIS ▪ AIC: 725 participating stores ▪ ComEd: 1,151 participating stores IEPEC 2017 7
Defini ining ng Leak akage age Ou Out t & Le Leak akage age In for AIC IC AIC Program bulbs Leakage Out ComEd Program bulbs Leakage In IEPEC 2017 8
Inter ercep cept t Met Method hod Detai etails ls ▪ Conducted intercept interviews at between 23-26 stores ▪ AIC: 335 ▪ ComEd: 400 ▪ Examined leakage from sampled stores within 15 miles of AIC/ComEd border ▪ Most sampled participating stores near territory borders, mirrors population Population Sample Stores Stores Within 15 Part. Within 15 Part. Border % Border % Miles of Stores Miles of Stores Utility Border Border AIC 47 725 5% 1 26 4% ComEd 106 1151 9% 2 23 9% IEPEC 2017 9
Resul sults: ts: In-Store re Inter ercepts cepts ▪ Intercept interviews at stores within 15 miles of AIC/ComEd border did not identify any customers from the neighboring utility purchasing program- AI AIC ComEd mEd discounted bulbs Leak akage ge Ou Out 0.00% 0.00% ▪ Overall intercept sample reflects population pretty well in terms Leak akage ge In 0.00% 0.00% of distance to all borders, but sample size is too small to Tot otal al Leak eakage age 0.00% 0.00% estimate leakage out of or into a single border IEPEC 2017 10
GIS Met Method hod Detai etails ls ▪ Uses sales data from participating stores ▪ Store territory = 15 mile buffer surrounding the store ▪ Assumes that all customers within the territory have equal opportunity to purchase bulbs ▪ We distribute program-discounted bulbs sold at each store equally across all households in territory ▪ Focused on “leakage susceptible stores” along AIC/ComEd border ▪ Those that have customers from neighboring utility within store territory IEPEC 2017 11
Resul sults: ts: GIS Analysis alysis ▪ Calculated leakage out and leakage in for both utilities for both years ▪ AIC has more bulbs leaking in AIC ComE mEd than leaking out Leaka kage ge Out 2.51% 1.68% ▪ ComEd has more bulbs leaking out than leaking in Leaka Le kage ge In 3.16% 1.33% ▪ ComEd had more leakage- Tot otal al Leaka kage ge 0.65% -0.35% susceptible stores near the border than AIC, which also sold more program-discounted bulbs than AIC leakage- susceptible stores IEPEC 2017 12
Sensi nsitivity tivity Analysi alysis s of Rad adius ius Par Paramet ameter er ▪ The leakage estimates can vary significantly using different buffer radii ▪ These differences may be due to the irregular shape of the AIC/ComEd border, varying communities on either side of the border, and sporadic shifts in household density Utility ty 10 10-Mil ile e Radius ius 15 15-Mil ile e Radius ius 20-Mil 20 ile e Radius AI AIC 8.53% 0.65% -4.92% ComEd mEd -6.35% -0.35% 1.13% IEPEC 2017 13
Ex Example ample of Par Param ameter er Sensitivity sitivity for Single le AIC IC Store re % % Radiu ius s AIC C ComE mEd Leaka kage ge (in Cust stomer omers Cust stomer omers Out to miles) s) ComE mEd 10 10 13,784 453 3% 15 15 19,537 2,531 11% 20 20 23,301 20,544 47% IEPEC 2017 14
Key y Tak akea eaways ys GIS Method Intercept Method ▪ Pros ▪ Pros ▪ Can produce accurate estimate ▪ Both leakage out and leakage in of leakage out for overall territory Can use to estimate leakage to ▪ if sample stores locations are single utility representative of population No sample required ▪ ▪ Cons ns ▪ Is inexpensive ▪ Samples are too small to ▪ Co Cons estimate leakage to a single ▪ Requires untested simplifying utility assumptions ▪ Not practical to estimate leakage ▪ Requires access to bulb sales data in from opposing program for ▪ Expensive leakage in estimates to be precise IEPEC 2017 15
Thank ank you Tami Buhr tbuhr@opiniondynamics.com 617-492-1400 ext 4654
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