Meeting on Post-2015 Framework for Development: Growth, Structural - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Meeting on Post-2015 Framework for Development: Growth, Structural Change and Employment

Tokyo, May 2012

Structural transformation and employment

Ralf Peters, UNCTAD

UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Structural transformation urgently needed

Least developed countries

• Many LDCs have no industrial base
• Little supply capacity; often exporters of

resources; high share of workforce in low productivity agriculture Middle income countries

• Many countries are stuck in early and middle

income stages of development Rising inequality

• Need for inclusive growth

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1

SST (US$ 3.5 billion, 2010): Share by Regions From Asia = 84% (of which 74% is intra-Asia) From Americas = 10% (of which 4.2% is to Asia) Africa = 6% (of which 3.7% is to Asia) SST (US$ 3.5 trillion, 2010): Share by Region

Low trade barriers: Challenges ahead

Globalization and way of production

• Increasing specialization
• Do scale effects lead to increasing agglomeration?
• Is it still an option to start with labour

intensive light manufacturing?

• Are policy options limited?

Economic and financial crisis

• Demand in developed countries slows down
• Protectionist measures

Opportunities ahead

Globalization and way of production

• Will lower transport costs allow production of

goods and services around the globe?

• Does production in supply chains make it easier to

break into global markets?

• … but value addition matters
• Outward orientation possible

Economic and financial crisis

• South-south cooperation offers an opportunity
• Growing markets

Interest in industrial policy made a comeback Developmental state

Not “picking winners” Industrial policy by institutional design

• Incentives and institutions that support self-discovery
• Establish and accelerate process that focuses on learning

Providing good conditions: market enhancing governance

• Predictable economic environment
• Reasonably secure property rights
• Investment in human capital

State active beyond those conditions

• Socialized long-term investment risks
• Support services: technology, training and exporting

THANK YOU

ralf.peters@unctad.org