Measuring and Inferring Weather's Effect on Residential Internet - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Measuring and Inferring Weather's Effect on Residential Internet - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 18, 2023 138 likes •374 views

Measuring and Inferring Weather's Effect on Residential Internet Infrastructure Ramakrishna Padmanabhan, Aaron Schulman, Ramakrishnan Sundara Raman, Reethika Ramesh, Dave Levin, Neil Spring 1 Residential Internet infrastructure is

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SLIDE 1

Measuring and Inferring Weather's Effect

  • n Residential Internet Infrastructure

Ramakrishna Padmanabhan, Aaron Schulman, 
 Ramakrishnan Sundara Raman, Reethika Ramesh, 
 Dave Levin, Neil Spring

1

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SLIDE 2

Residential Internet infrastructure is vulnerable to weather

2

  • Residential Internet

infrastructure includes

  • power infrastructure
  • last-mile infrastructure

from the ISP

  • Lightning strikes, wind,

and rain, can damage these infrastructure

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SLIDE 3

Are there regions where the Internet infrastructure is particularly vulnerable?

  • Some geographic regions may be particularly

prone to weather-related Internet outages

  • E.g.: Snow in the southern U.S. states
  • Identifying vulnerable regions and networks

will:

  • help isolate underlying challenges
  • inform which enhancements can improve

residential Internet reliability

3

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SLIDE 4

Study residential Internet infrastructure reliability across regions using ThunderPing

  • Internet reliability can be studied by detecting

and analyzing outages

  • ThunderPing detects residential Internet
  • utages in the U.S.
  • across geography, ISPs, linktypes
  • in many weather conditions

4

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SLIDE 5

ThunderPing detects outages during times

  • f predicted severe weather in the U.S.

5

… 24.128.255.0/24: 42.2843,-85.2293 24.129.0.0/23: 30.2187,-81.7540 … 24.129.42.0/23: 30.2558,-82.1300 … 76.123.95.224/27: 26.9856,-82.0910 76.123.96.0/23: 30.3533,-81.4990 … 76.123.116.0/23: 30.1294,-81.7775 …

Weather Alert Probe Responses

<entry> <title>Hurricane Warning issued September 10 at 3:30AM EDT until September 10 at 11:30AM EDT by NWS</title> … <cap:severity>Severe</ cap:severity> <cap:certainty>Possible</ cap:certainty> … <valueName>FIPS6</ valueName> <value>12003</value> … </entry>

Maxmind Geolocation Reverse DNS PlanetLab

Pl 0 Pl 1 Pl 2 Pl 3 Pl 4 Pl 5 Pl 6 Pl 7 Pl 8 Pl 9

24.129.42.9 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.16 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.19 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.20 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.21 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.22 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 24.129.42.47 S5 S0 S8 S1 S3 F9 F9 F9 F9 F9 F2 F4 76.123.113.127 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F2 F4 F6 F4 F2 F6 76.123.113.126 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F2 F4 F4 F6 F2 F6 76.123.113.153 S5 S8 S0 S1 S3 F9 S9 F2 F2 F4 F6 F4 76.123.113.212 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F2 F4 F6 F4 F2 F6 76.123.113.249 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F2 F4 F6 F4 F2 F6 76.123.116.32 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F2 F0 76.123.116.34 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F2 F0 76.123.116.44 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F2 F0 76.123.116.63 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F0 F2 76.123.116.89 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F2 F0 76.123.116.97 S8 S0 S1 S3 S9 F2 F4 F2 F6 F4 F2 F0 c-24-129-42-9.hsd1.fl.comcast.net. c-24-129-42-16.hsd1.fl.comcast.net. c-24-129-42-19.hsd1.fl.comcast.net. … c-76-123-116-89.hsd1.fl.comcast.net. c-76-123-116-97.hsd1.fl.comcast.net.

Identify locations
 to ping Identify addresses
 to ping Ping from 
 multiple 
 vantage points If previously responsive 
 address stops responding,
 infer outage

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SLIDE 6

Associate weather with responsive times and with times when failures began

6

  • Consider 10 addresses that were pinged for 24

hours

  • Clear weather: 18 hours
  • Rain: 6 hours
  • Suppose each address had an hour-long failure in

clear weather and in rain, but was responsive

  • therwise
  • Responsive time in Clear: (18 - 1) * 10 = 170 hours
  • Responsive time in Rain: (6 - 1) * 10 = 50 hours
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SLIDE 7

We use failure rate as our metric for comparing reliability

7

  • Failure rate: # Failures/Responsive-duration

(in days)

  • Failure rate in clear: 10/(170/24) = 1.41
  • Failure rate in rain: 10/(50/24) = 4.8
  • Normalized failure rate = 4.8/1.41 = 3.4
  • Failure rate in rain is 3.4 times that of clear
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SLIDE 8

Short paper in IMC’11 presented 
 preliminary results using 3 months’ data

8

  • Failures in Thunderstorm 4 times as likely as

failures in Clear

  • Failure in Rain twice as likely
  • Since then, we have pinged for 7 years in a

variety of weather conditions

  • I will focus upon measurements from 2017
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SLIDE 9

ThunderPing pings addresses in 
 clear weather a lot

9

Clear Drizzle Rain Fr’ rain Snow Hail Tstorm Tornado

1 10 100 1000 10000

Responsive Duration (years) Clear Drizzle Rain Fr’ rain Snow Hail Tstorm Tornado 90 1 10 Percent

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SLIDE 10

Distribution of addresses pinged in 2017

10

ASN AS Name Pinged IPs Failed IPs Many Comcast 1,118K 93K 20115 Charter 288K 32K 22773 Cox 62K 5K 209, 22561 Centurylink 476K 106K 7029 Windstream 363K 55K 701 Verizon (DSL) 104K 14K 701 Verizon (Fiber) 173K 8K 7155 Viasat 74K 47K 17306, 23205 RISE Broadband 22K 6K Rest 889K 147K Total 3,569K 513K

Cable DSL Fiber Satellite WISP

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SLIDE 11

Failure rate in clear weather varies across linktypes

11

1 10 100 1000 10000

Responsive Duration (years)

CABLE DSL FIBER SAT WISP 0.0 0.2 0.4

Failure Rate

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SLIDE 12

How does the failure rate in clear weather vary across regions?

  • The failure rate for a linktype should be similar across

regions

  • Modulo rural-urban divisions
  • For the largest cable (Comcast) and DSL (Centurylink)

ISPs in our dataset:

  • Found failure rates for all U.S. states
  • Plotted heat map of failure rates across U.S. states:
  • Heat map shows only states where addresses from

the ISP were responsive for a total of 100 days (or more) in 2017

12

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SLIDE 13

0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

For Comcast, failure rate in clear weather is higher in the south-east

13

Failure rate in Clear for Comcast 
 (Failure rate across all states: 0.03)

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SLIDE 14

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

For Centurylink, failure rate in clear weather is higher in the west

14

Failure rate in Clear for Centurylink (Failure rate across all states: 0.13)

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SLIDE 15

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

For Charter, failure rate in clear weather is more uniform

15

Failure rate in Clear for Charter (Failure rate across all states: 0.04)

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SLIDE 16

Residential Internet infrastructure reliability varies across regions

  • Failure rates vary across U.S. states even in clear

weather

  • Snow had higher failure rates in the southern

states (see backup slides)

  • Upcoming work
  • Longitudinal analysis: Are trends observed in

2017 also present in earlier years?

  • Large events: Can we use correlated failures to

detect events such as power outages?

16

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SLIDE 17

Backup Slides

17

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SLIDE 18

Study reliability across weather conditions
 using normalized failure rates

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  • Find failure rate in Clear
  • Find failure rate in weather condition
  • Calculate normalized failure rate as


failure-rate-in-weather/failure-rate-in-clear

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SLIDE 19

Failure rates in snow, rain, and thunderstorm, are higher than in clear

19

CABLE DSL FIBER SAT WISP

Linktype

0.0 0.2 0.4

Failure Rate

Cable DSL

Drizzle Snow Rain Thunderstorm 1 2 3 4 5

Normalized Failure Rate

Drizzle Snow Rain Thunderstorm 1 2 3 4 5

Normalized Failure Rate

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SLIDE 20

2 4 6 8 10 12

For Cable, the south experiences higher failure rates in Snow

20

Normalized Failure rate in Snow for Cable

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SLIDE 21

2 4 6 8 10

DSL also has higher failure rates in snow in the south

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Normalized Failure rate in Snow for DSL

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SLIDE 22

5 10 15

Cable has higher failure rates in the north east and south east in rain

22

Normalized Failure rate in Rain for Cable

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SLIDE 23

1 2 3 4 5

As does DSL, though the increase in failure rate is less pronounced

23

Normalized Failure rate in Rain for DSL