Placement, Performance, and Progress in Basic Skills and Transfer Level Courses in English and Mathematics (Brief version) Fundamental and critical aspects of this research were completed by our two research analysts, Andrew Fuenmayor, in particular, and Karen Rothstein, our Associate Dean of Institutional Effectiveness, Eva Bagg, and our Director of Institutional Research, John Hetts. Questions can be directed to John Hetts at jhetts@lbcc.edu or 562-938-4052. 1
Two goals Initiate reflection about whether: assessment and placement are well-aligned with performance at our colleges? our students are more prepared for college than commonly believed Pique your interest Provide glimpse of work to get you to attend our talk, @ 1:45 in Mountain Vista (Assessing Assessment) 2
Preparation and Assessment CCCs are open-access, come as you are Primary method of assessing level of preparation has been: performance on standardized assessment Conclusions from those assessments: Students are simply unprepared for college Underscored by first official contact with college 3
What is our typical response? Take a moment to reflect on some common local solutions to this problem Can it really be the case that so many high school graduates are virtually unprepared for college work? Emerging research strongly suggests otherwise 4
Our research Sought local answers to 3 questions using 5 year cohort of ~7000 students built for us by Cal-PASS from a large local unified school district (LUSD) What predicts how students assess and place into our 1. developmental courses? What predicts how students perform (likelihood of 2. successful completion) in those courses? How well are placement and performance aligned? 3. Very simplified presentation of predictive utility (unstandardized ordinal and logistic regression coefficients) of 11 th grade California Standards Test scores and grades. 5
Alignment in English Predicting Placement Predicting Performance 1.34 x 1.4 1.0 .88 x 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 .37*** 0.4 0.4 .30** .17* 0.2 0.2 .00 0.0 0.0 CST ELA (z) Eng Grade GPA (other) CST ELA (z) Eng Grade GPA (other) (12) (12) * p <.05 **, p <.01, *** p<.001, x = p< 1 x 10 -10 6
Alignment in Math Predicting Placement Predicting Performance 1.0 1.0 .75 x 0.8 0.8 .73 x 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 .25** .21* .20* .20 0.2 0.2 .07 .00 0.0 0.0 CST Math Math GPA GPA (12) GPA (11) CST Math Math GPA GPA (12) GPA (11) (z) (z) * p <.05 **, p <.01, *** p<.001, x = p< 1 x 10 -10 7
Alignment in Reading Predicting Placement Predicting Performance 1.4 1.4 1.20 × 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 .62 × 0.6 0.6 .45*** .34** 0.4 0.4 .21** 0.2 0.2 .09 .06 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -.20* -0.4 -0.4 CST-ELA EngGrade GPA (12) GPA (11) CST-ELA EngGrade GPA (12) GPA (11) (z) (12) (z) (12) * p <.05 **, p <.01, *** p<.001, x = p< 1 x 10 -8 8
Spurring evidence-based change: Fall 2012, Promise Pathways ~25% (~1600) of FTF are direct matriculators from largest school district partner 1000-1200 students who complete matriculation by May 5 will receive Prescriptive, full-time course load Emphasis on early completion of developmental courses At the core, pilots of direct placement in coursework based on multi-method, evidence-based, holistic assessment of students’ preparation and capabilities Taken together, what will this mean for our students? 9
What this will mean: English pilot as an example Percentage of LUSD first-term student cohort taking English courses in their first semester 60% 52% 52% 50% 40% 29% 30% 21% 19% 17% 20% 11% 10% 0% 0% English 1 One level below Three levels below Did not take English Current 1st semester enrollment Promise Pathways model 10
What this will mean: 1 year Projected completions of transfer-level English in first year (with LUSD cohort of ~1000) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Total Asian Black Hispanic White Current (F2010) 101 16 9 45 22 Promise Pathways 571 105 59 240 109 Current (F2010) Promise Pathways 11
Implications Promising way to increase student progress and achievement by: Aligning placement with predictors of student performance Reconsidering long-held beliefs about the lack of preparation or capability of our students Broadly speaking, it suggests the importance and potential of: Implementing broad-based, multiple method evidence- based assessment and placement locally and systemically Supporting the efforts of the CCCCO, Cal-PASS, IEBC, and the Data Quality Campaign to try to build a true K-20 SLDS Coming to see the tools Andrew built to help make this work an immediate possibility a reality at your college or district 12
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