CONFERENCE: Doing Business in Angola and Brazil 2 4 th October 2012 - Head Office KPMG Amstelveen Business Opportunities Maritime sector & Offshore industry Angola Marco Rensma Director-owner MEYS Emerging Markets Research www.meys.eu
High economic growth rates Strong increase oil production paved the way GDP per capita, 2011 (USD) 25 2.500,0 Gabon 16 419 20 2.000,0 Angola 5 876 Thousand barrels per day Ghana 3 058 15 1.500,0 Africa 3 025 % Nigeria 2 471 10 1.000,0 Cameroon 2 450 5 500,0 Zambia 2 043 Senegal 1 763 0 0,0 Cote D'Ivoire 1 686 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 Oil production (R-axis) Economic growth rate (L-axis) Source: African Development Bank Source: IMF, OPEC www.meys.eu
Offshore industry key sector to Angola Oil dominate trade and economy 100.000 GDP by economic sector, 2011 (%) 80.000 7 10 60.000 21 Million USD 40.000 8 20.000 47 7 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Agriculture Oil -20.000 Industry (excl. oil) Construction Trade, transport Other services -40.000 Imports Oil exports Non-oil exports Source: BNA Source: Alfandegas, IMF www.meys.eu
Angola large proven crude oil reserves Potential danger of ‘Dutch disease ’ Proven crude oil reserves, 2011 (million barrels) Libya* Nigeria* Algeria* Angola* Sudan Egypt Gabon 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000 Note: (*) OPEC-member www.meys.eu Source: OPEC
Ports essential to foreign trade Strong position Port of Luanda Total throughput main ports 2008 - 2011 (excl. cabotage, tonnes) Luanda Lobito Namibe 95 per cent foreign trade is seaborne trade Cabinda Soyo 0 5.000.000 10.000.000 15.000.000 20.000.000 25.000.000 30.000.000 Source: Ministry of Transport Angola www.meys.eu
Short sea shipping is limited Less than 15 per cent of total maritime trade Total volume short sea shipping by main ports 2008 - 2011 (tonnes) Lobito Cabinda Namibe Amboim Lobito connected to railtrack Caminho – de- Ferro de Benguela Soyo Luanda 0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 3.500.000 Source: Ministry of Transport Angola www.meys.eu
Slow port handling Angola High costs cross border trading Ports and terminal handling, 2012 (days) Angola Cote d'Ivoire Nigeria Cameroon Ghana Senegal the Netherlands 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Imports Exports Source: World Bank www.meys.eu
Port developments 2010 - 2020 Expanding capacity, meeting international standards New satellite port Barra do Dande Expansion port of Lobito Modernising port of Namibe New deep-water port Caio Port www.meys.eu
Market opportunities for dredging Port developments and inland waterways ✓ Deepening of ports and channels ✓ Total length of rivers Angola: 3.000 km ✓ Creating new land for port expansion ✓ Navigable length: 400 km www.meys.eu
Maritime sector Angola almost non-existent Merchant fleet Angola only 10 (Sonaship)vessels Sonaship www.meys.eu
Revitalising local shipping Re-activate public shipping company Sécil Marítima ✓ Dorment for 20 years ✓ Reduce local maritime transport costs ✓ Alternative to inland road, rail and air transport ✓ Focus on long haul (oceangoing) cargo transport ✓ Goal Government: 15 per cent market share in 2015 ✓ Market share Sécil in oceangoing cargo transport 2010: 0,05 per cent www.meys.eu
Shipbuilding Angola in infant stage Focus on offshore industry Sonamet Lobito shipyard Petromar shipyards (3) Porto Amboim new shipyard SONANGOL www.meys.eu
SWOT-analysis Maritime sector & Offshore industry Angola Weaknesses Strengths • Economic dependance of oil exports (‘Dutch • Large proven oil reserves disease ’) • Growing economy • Large non-oil trade deficit • Investments in port infrastructure • No domestic maritime infrastructure • Strategic geographical location Angola • High costs cross border trading • Unskilled labour (deficit between supply- demand Opportunities Threats • • Growing seaborne trade Continuation economic crisis Europe & US • • Large investments by offshore industry Lower oil prices • • New port developments and hinterland Political instability & social unrest • connections Corruption & red tape • • Low labour costs No clear government strategy for maritime • Dredging of rivers and ports sector • • Short sea shipping Lack of sufficient finance for maritime • Local shipbuilding (OSVs, tugs, cargo, infrastructure ferries) www.meys.eu
THANKYOU FORYOUR ATTENTION Marco Rensma Mob.: +31 (0)6 12 79 25 60 E-mail: mrensma@meys.eu Website: www.meys.eu www.meys.eu
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