Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework OpenRisk Workshop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Syed Raza Ali Mehdi

rm@wmu.se

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework

OpenRisk Workshop

SYKE, Helsinki, Finland | 13th June 2017

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 2

Icebreaker

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 3

Icebreaker

• Background:
• MSc. Engineering Dynamics & Control
• BEng. Aerospace Engineering
• Flight Test Certifications
• Current Status:
• MaRiSa Research Group @ WMU
• Research Assistant
• 3rd Year PhD Student
• Technical Officer OpenRisk Project
• Research Areas:
• Risk, Safety & Reliability Assessments
• Risk-Based Marine Spatial Planning
• Accident Investigation

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 4

Research Work

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 5

Dynamic vs Static Risk Assessment

• Static risk assessment:
• Non-operational
• Does not focus on one operation, but covers

many ship movements in an area

• Focuses on a wide time period
• Proactive – generally conducted during the

planning phase

• Probabilistic
• More ‘controllable’ parameters that can be

changed

• Low certainty about information
• High availability of time & resources
• Outcomes directly effect dynamic risk

assessment conducted during an operation

• Dynamic risk assessment:
• Operational
• Generally focuses on one single operation
• Focuses on a specific time period during the
• perational phase of a system
• Reactive – usually conducted during an on-

going operation

• More deterministic than probabilistic
• Either the consequences of an event are known

and/or the probability of the event is 1 or 0

• Less ‘controllable’ parameters
• The few ‘controllable’ operational parameters

(e.g. ship speed, rudder angle) may be used to quantify the risk in a scenario

• High level of certainty
• Low availability of time & resources

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 6

Static Risk Assessment

• Sophisticated NRA frameworks/models already exist (Mehdi & Schröder-Hinrichs 2016)
• Significant literature on contact, collision, grounding models
• E.g. of previous work includes NRA models for bridges, quays, oil platforms

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 7

Static Risk Assessment

• Consequence model selection was partially based on literature review & surveys
• Included a comprehensive review of 50+ contemporary damage assessment models
• Presented at Intl. Conference on Ships & Offshore Structures (ICSOS) 2016

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 8

Static Risk Assessment

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 9

Dynamic Risk Assessment

• Why: lack of communication between operational & non-
• perational maritime users
• Survey of 122 seafarers shows 104 are unaware of any NRA

studies around OREIs

• Results of a typical NRA often ‘meaningless’ for seafarers
• Exception: if a risk-control option is integrated as a result of the NRA

that influences maritime operations

• What: dynamic risk model that can be integrated as a

decision support system

• Based on ship manoeuvrability & hydrodynamics
• Relates the probability of an accident to the safe manoeuvring area

available to a ship

• Initially developed for maritime collision avoidance
• Developed from the principles for ACAS/TCAS used in the

aviation industry

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 10

Dynamic Risk Assessment

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 11

Dynamic Risk Decision Support System: Future Work

• Several potential future

developments:

• Incorporate drift envelope

calculations

• Integration with AIS data (variant

already been demonstrated successfully by Nakano & Hasagawa in 2012)

• Potential integration of

consequence assessment based

• n ship speed & rudder angle at

time of collision, contact or grounding

• Integration with KPIs?

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 12

Improving Input Data for Risk Assessment Processes

• MaRiSa Simulator Lab:
• DNV-GL certified, multiple simulators:
• Desktop ship handling

– Basic navigational equipment as specified by SOLAS – Internal Communication – e.g. – engine room to bridge – External Communication – e.g. – VTS

• Safety & Security Training

– Virtual-reality – Simulates on-board accidents

• HECSALV

– Damage Stability simulator

• Manoeuvring station

– Predictive ship manoeuvres

• Engine room simulator
• SenseFloor to track movement on bridge

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 13

Improving Input Data for Risk Assessment Processes

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 14

In the Context of ISO 31000 & 31010

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 15

Risk Assessment/Management

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework | 16

Tips from ISO 31000/31010

Thank You!