MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD Valtteri Laine OpenRisk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OpenRisk Workshop 13 June 2017

MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD

Valtteri Laine Project Manager Captain/M.Sc.

PERIODIC RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk Identification

• The organization should identify sources
• f risk, areas of impacts, events (including

changes in circumstances) and their causes and their potential consequences.

• The aim of this step is to generate a

comprehensive list of risks based on those events that might create, enhance, prevent, degrade, accelerate or delay the achievement of objectives.

OVERVIEW

• The Event Risk Classification (ERC) is a part of ARMS Methodology for Operational Risk

Assessment.

• It was originally developed for aviation by the ARMS Working Group from 2007 to 2010.
• OpenRisk has develop consequence/probability matrices for environmental damages, loss
• f life or injuries and economic losses, and process for risk identification.
• The expected end-users of this method are Pollution Prevention and Response authorities

and VTS authorities.

EVENT RISK

• Risk that was present in an individual experienced event in a specific

context.

• These contextual factors will influence both the probabilities and severity

levels of outcomes.

.

“Manifestation of a hazard or combination of several hazards in a specific context”

• Events that have something in

common.

SAFETY ISSUE

Economical Losess

MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Loss of Life or Injuries Environmental Damages

Severity Likelihood Risk Index Values Very high risk High risk Medium risk Low risk

MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Accident outcomes Non-accident outcomes

• Question 1. If this event had

escalated into an accident outcome, what would have been the most credible outcome? SCENARIO

MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Accident outcomes Non-accident outcomes Question 2: What was the effectiveness of the remaining controls between this event and the most credible accident scenario?

PROCESS

Data Collection

 VTS Incident Reports  Marine Casualty Reports  Accident Investigation Reports  Pilotage Reports  ...

Structured Database

• Date
• Location (latitude/longitude)
• Weather conditions (good/moderate/poor)
• IMO number
• Accident or scenario (grounding/collision/contact/fire or explosion…)
• …

MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMGES

MARITIME ERC FOR THE LOSS OF LIFE OR INJURIES

MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ECONOMICAL LOSESS

EXAMPLE 1: Engine failure January 2015

Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess

EXAMPLE 2: Engine failure June 2016

Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess

EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT

Safety Issue: Collision risk between ropax ship and sailboat The events on different ship types from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754). Safety Issue: Engine failures

Spatial Distribution of Maritime Accidents and Spatial Cold Spots and Hot Spots Based on Incidents and Their Event Risk Values

EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT

Safety Issue: Accidental hotspot area The events from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754).

OpenRisk Workshop 13 June 2017

BOWTIE METHOD

Valtteri Laine Project Manager Captain/M.Sc.

PERIODIC RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk Analysis

• Risk analysis involves developing an

understanding of the risk. Risk analysis provides an input to risk evaluation and to decisions on whether risks need to be treated, and on the most appropriate risk treatment strategies and methods.

• Risk analysis can also provide an input into

making decisions where choices must be made and the options involve different types and levels of risk.

OVERVIEW

• Simple diagrammatic way of describing

and analysing the pathways of a risk from causes to consequences

• Combination of Fault Tree and Event Tree

analysis

• Focus of the bow tie is on the barriers

between the causes and the risk, and the . risk and consequences

• Often used in combination with the ERC

method

• Easy to understand and useful

communication tool

PROCESS

Identified risk

Sources of risk (hazards) Identified mechanism Identified escalation factors Identified prevention controls and robustness Identified potential consequences Identified mechanism Identified escalation factors Identified mitigation and recovery controls and robustness Identified owners of controls Identified owners of controls

Data collection: Accident statistics, VTS Incident reports, expert judgements, studies...

SCOPE AND LEVEL OF ABSTRACTION

• Determining scope
• Level of abstraction

EXAMPLE OF PREVENTION

Based on risk identification Robustness?

EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE

Based on risk identification

Owner of controls?

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND BE SAFE!

Valtteri Laine Project Manager Tel: +358 40 3527 689 E-mail: valtteri.laine@helcom.fi

HELCOM

Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland