MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD Valtteri Laine OpenRisk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD Valtteri Laine OpenRisk Workshop Project Manager 13 June 2017 Captain/M.Sc. BACKGROUND The Event Risk Classification (ERC) is a part of ARMS Methodology for Operational Risk Assessment. It was

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OpenRisk Workshop 13 June 2017

MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD

Valtteri Laine Project Manager Captain/M.Sc.

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BACKGROUND

The Event Risk Classification (ERC) is a part of ARMS Methodology for Operational Risk

Assessment.

It was originally developed for aviation by the ARMS Working Group from 2007 to 2010.
OpenRisk will develop consequence/probability matrices for environmental damages, loss
f life or injuries and economic losses, and process for risk identification.
The expected end-users of this method are Pollution Prevention and Response authorities

and VTS authorities.

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SWISS CHEESE

James Reason

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EVENT RISK

Risk that was present in an individual experienced event in a specific

context.

These contextual factors will influence both the probabilities and severity

levels of outcomes.

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“Manifestation of a hazard or combination of several hazards in a specific context”

Events that have something in

common.

SAFETY ISSUE

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Economical Losess

MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Loss of Life or Injuries Environmental Damages

Severity Likelihood Risk Index Values Very high risk High risk Medium risk Low risk

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MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Accident outcomes Non-accident outcomes

Question 1. If this event had

escalated into an accident outcome, what would have been the most credible outcome? SCENARIO

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MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC

Accident outcomes Non-accident outcomes Question 2: What was the effectiveness of the remaining controls between this event and the most credible accident scenario?

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RISK INDENTIFICATION PROCESS

Data Collection

VTS Incident Reports
Marine Casualty Reports
Accident Investigation Reports
Pilotage Reports
...

Structured Database

Date
Location (latitude/longitude)
Weather conditions (good/moderate/poor)
IMO number
Accident or scenario (grounding/collision/contact/fire or explosion…)
…

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MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMGES

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MARITIME ERC FOR THE LOSS OF LIFE OR INJURIES

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MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ECONOMICAL LOSESS

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EXAMPLE 1: Violation of Contravened Regulationss Rule 10/b ii on March 2014

Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess

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EXAMPLE 2: Violation of Contravened Regulationss Rule 10/b i on September 2014

Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess

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EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT

Safety Issue: Collision risk between ropax ship and sailboat The events on different ship types from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754).

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Spatial Distribution of Maritime Accidents and Spatial Cold Spots and Hot Spots Based on Incidents and Their Event Risk Values

EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT

Safety Issue: Accidental hotspot area The events from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754).

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EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012

Safety Issue I Safety Issue II

5 10 15 20 25 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

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RISK ANALYSIS

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND BE SAFE!

Valtteri Laine Project Manager Tel: +358 40 3527 689 E-mail: valtteri.laine@helcom.fi

HELCO COM

Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland