Manion Lecture 2011 Supporting Slides UNCLASSIFIED 1. Export - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Manion Lecture 2011 Supporting Slides UNCLASSIFIED 1. Export - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Manion Lecture 2011 Supporting Slides UNCLASSIFIED 1. Export market growth GDP growth in key export markets 120 US (1992-97) 115 Euro-area (2010-15)* 110 1992/2010=100 105 100 95 90 0 1 2 3 4 5 Year * IMF forecast for euro-area

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SLIDE 1

UNCLASSIFIED

Manion Lecture 2011

Supporting Slides

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SLIDE 2

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 1. Export market growth

90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1 2 3 4 5 1992/2010=100 Year

US (1992-97) Euro-area (2010-15)*

GDP growth in key export markets *IMF forecast for euro-area

Source: IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook

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SLIDE 3

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 2. Fiscal and Financial Sector Vulnerabilities

Finland Bulgaria Germany Netherlands Italy Slovenia Sweden Austria Czech Rep Denmark France Portugal Slovakia Greece Spain U.S UK Ireland

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 Domestic banking assets (% GDP) Structural deficit in 2010 (% GDP)

Source: ECB, Eurostat, US Fed and HMT calculations

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SLIDE 4

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% o GDP

Year

Canada 1989 onwards UK 2007/8 onwards

Net borrowing

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% of GDP

Year

Canada 1989 onwards UK 2007/08 onwards

Net debt

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)

  • 3. Borrowing and debt
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SLIDE 5

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% o GDP

Year

Canada 1989 onwards UK 2007/08 onwards

Structural net borrowing

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)

  • 4. Structural borrowing
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SLIDE 6

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 5. Bond yield spreads
  • 200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Basis points

10-year yield spread to Bunds

Spain Portugal Italy UK France Ireland Greece

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SLIDE 7

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 6. Comparison of consolidations

Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada) 30 35 40 45 50 55 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

% of GDP

Public spending Receipts

Canadian public spending and receipts

30 35 40 45 50 55

% of GDP

Public spending Receipts

UK public spending and receipts

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SLIDE 8

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

  • 7. Changes to Public Sector Employment*

Sources: OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook March 2011. ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics Q4 2010. Employment Statistics for the Federal Public Service 1996 to 1997, TBCS. Statistics Canada (www.statcan.gc.uk)

85 90 95 100 1 2 3 4 5

1994/2010 = 100

Year Canadian Public Sector (1994 to 1999) UK Public Sector* (2010 to 2015)

* UK Public sector excluding Public corporations (General Government).

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SLIDE 9

UNCLASSIFIED

  • 8. Civil Service Engagement: 2010 Civil Service People Survey

30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%

  • 16
  • 14
  • 12
  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

+2 +4 +6 2010 Employee Engagment Index Percentage point change in EEI since 2009

Source: Civil Service People Survey 2010

The Civil Service’s employee engagement framework views engagement as the emotional contribution staff provide to their

  • rganisation. We measure

engagement using five questions:

I am proud when I tell others I work for [my organisation] I would recommend [my

  • rganisation] as a great

place to work I feel a strong personal attachment to [my

  • rganisation]

[My organisation] inspires me to do the best in my job [My organisation] motivates me to help it achieve its

  • bjectives

Civil Service benchmark 2010: 56% Civil Service benchmark 2009: 58%

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SLIDE 10
  • 9. Drivers of Engagement