Managem gemen ent P Presen entation
Earnings Call – 3Q20 NYSE American: GDP
Managem gemen ent P Presen entation Earnings Call 3Q20 This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
NYSE American: GDP Managem gemen ent P Presen entation Earnings Call 3Q20 This presentation has been prepared by Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (the Company) solely for information purposes and may include "forward-
Managem gemen ent P Presen entation
Earnings Call – 3Q20 NYSE American: GDP
This presentation has been prepared by Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (the “Company”) solely for information purposes and may include "forward- looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. Private Litigation Securities Reform Act of 1995. The Company, its respective employees, directors,
whether the communications were oral or written. The statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to forward-looking statements about acquisitions, divestitures, trades, potential strategic alliances, the availability of capital, the expectations of plans, strategies, objectives and anticipated financial and operating results of the Company, including the Company's drilling program, production, hedging activities, capital expenditure levels and other guidance that may be included in this presentation. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on management's experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. These include risks relating to the Company's financial performance and results, availability of sufficient cash flow to execute its business plan, prices and demand for oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, the ability to replace reserves and efficiently develop current reserves, the ability to access the capital markets and finance operations, including capital expenditures, and
reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. See "Risk Factors" in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other public filings and press releases.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Environmental:
~0
5.1
Social:
48
0%
51%
20%
Governance:
8
6
75%
1 Year
10
100%
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18+ Year Inventory of Core Locations (77% Operated)
24,000 Net Acres (Core - HBP and De-Risked)
>1.7 Tcf of Natural Gas Resource Potential in North Louisiana
Production: 125,500 Mcfe/day (3Q20)
4Q20E – 140,000 – 145,000 Mcfe/day
Low Finding/Development and Lifting Cost Generating Strong Rates of Return
2.5 Bcf Per 1,000 Feet of Lateral
Low Leverage (Net Debt to EBITDA (TTM) – 1.67X)
Exit 2021 Estimated Leverage Multiple of <1.0X
Top Tier Capital Efficiency, Returns and Free Cash Flow Yield Projected
TUSCALOOSA MARINE SHALE:
Gross (Net) Acres (3Q20): 48,000 (33,000) Proved Reserves (YE19 – SEC) 7 Bcfe Objectives: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale
EAG AGLE LE F FORD SHALE ALE:
Net t Acres s (3Q20 20): 4, 4,30 300 Proved ed R Reser erves es ( (YE19 19 – SEC) ) Obj bjectiv ives: Eagle le F Ford S rd Shale le, P Pears rsall S l Shale le & & Buda da L Lim ime
HAYNESVILLE / BOSSIER SHALE ANGELINA RIVER TREND (“ART”)
Gross (Net) Acres (4Q18): 7,000 (3,000) Proved Reserves (YE18 - SEC) Objective: Haynesville & Bossier Shale
HAY AYNESVILL LLE S SHALE ALE - COR ORE
Gross ( ss (Net) A Acres (3Q20) 0): 42,000 00 (24,000 000) Proved ed R Reser erves es ( (YE19 19 - SEC) C) 51 510 Bcfe fe Obj bjectiv ive: H Haynes esville e Shale e
HAYNESVILLE P PURE P PLAY OPPORTU RTUNITY TY STRONG H HAYNESVILL LLE RESULT LTS COMPANY RETURN RNS AND BALANCE SHE HEET T
Texas Mississippi
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5 55 303 428 480 517 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 ETX TMS NLA - Haynesville Total
SEC C PV10 of $297 $297 Million YE YE19 19 Proved ed Reserve ves by Area (Bcfe, % , %) YE19 Prov
rves by Category
, %) %) SEC Proved Reserves (Bc Bcfe) e) YE YE19 19 Proved Re Reserves by Co Commodity
PUD-372 (72%) PDP- 145 (28%)
HS – 511 (99%)
TMS-6 (1%) Natural Gas – 511 (99%) Oil - 6 (1%)
100,000 150,000 200,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* 2021*
Mcfe/ e/Day
Mcfe/Day
* Mid-Point of Guidance
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Volume mes and d Cost st Gui uida danc nce 2021 2021E
Pro roductio ion
Annual Net Production (Bcfe): 60 – 64
170 Percent Natural Gas: 99%
Capit ital E l Expendit itures (MM)
Total Capital Expenditures $75 - $85
Price R Realiz ization
Henry Hub Differential $0.15 – $0.25
Unit t Cost t (Per Mcfe)
LOE: $0.20 - $0.24 Taxes: $0.06 – $0.09 Transportation: $0.30 - $0.36 G&A (Cash): $0.20 - $0.24
Dev evelopme ment Schedu dule 2021 2021E
Activi ivity
Gross (Net) Wells: 17 (9.0)
~8,000’ Percentage Operated (Net): 84%
Net Capit ital l Allocatio ion
Bethany-Longstreet 78% Greenwood-Waskom 22%
Quart rterly rly Completion Ca Cadence
1Q20 9 Gross (3.2 Net) 2Q20 2 Gross (2.0 Net) 3Q20 3 Gross (1.5 Net) 4Q20 3 Gross (2.3 Net) Tot
17 17 Gross ( (9.0 0 Net)
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Peri riod Na Natural al Gas as V Volumes (M (Mcf cf/d) Swap p Volumes (M (Mcf cf/d) Collar V Volumes (M (Mcf cf/d) Sw Swap Price ce Collar ar P Price ces 3Q20 70,000 45,000 25,000 $2.56 $2.40 - $2.62 4Q20 70,000 45,000 25,000 $2.59 $2.40 - $2.62 1Q21 70,000 43,000 27,000 $2.64 $2.40 - $2.62 2Q21 100,000 70,000 30,000 $2.54 $2.50 - $3.50 3Q21 100,000 70,000 30,000 $2.55 $2.50 - $3.50 4Q21 100,000 70,000 30,000 $2.53 $2.50 - $3.50 1Q22 100,000 70,000 30,000 $2.53 $2.50 - $3.50 Peri riod Oil V il Volu lumes (Bo Bo/d) Swap p Volumes (Bo Bo/d) Collar V Volumes (Bo Boe/d) Sw Swap Price ce 3Q20 210 210 $58.36 4Q20 200 200 $57.51 1Q21 200 200 $56.58
GDP DP 24,000 ,000 Net Acre cres
Pay Zones
} 100 – 300 feet
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Haynesville - Core
~36,000/21,000
net) potential locations on 880’ spacing providing 18+ year inventory
the NLA core position
remaining 23% of NLA Core Acreage
Inventory with No Upfront Capital
Opportunities Shelby Trough/Angelina River Trend (ART) Haynesville and Bossier Shales:
3,000
TOTAL H L HAYNESVILLE LLE SHA HALE ~24, 24,000 00 net A t Ac ART RT 3, 3,000 000 Net t Ac Ac
NORTH LOUISIAN ANA A CORE AREA 21,000 ,000 Net t Ac
Rig Source: Ulterra Bits
(8) CHK ROTC 1 & 2 10,000’ Laterals IP: 72,000 Mcf/d (Combined) (11) GDP-Wurtsbaugh 25-24 #2&3 7,500’ Laterals IP: 25,000 Mcf/d IP: 29,000 Mcf/d (10) GDP Wurtsbaugh 26 4,600’ Lateral IP: 22,000 Mcf/d (9) GDP MSR - Hunt 5H-1 4,600’ Lateral IP: 17,000 Mcf/d (22) CHK Black 1H IP: 44,000 Mcf/d 10,000’ Lateral (21) Vine HA RA SU74;L L Golson 3 - 003-ALT IP: 18,800 Mcf/d 4,661’ Lateral
GEPH Unit IP: 47,988 Mcf/d 15,000’ Lateral
HUNTER 28-21HC 1&2 IP: 27,000 Mcf/d each 9,200’ Laterals (13) GDP Franks 25&24 #1 IP: 30,000 Mcf/d 9,600’ Lateral (12) GDP Wurtsbaugh 25-24 #1 8,800’ Lateral IP: 31,000 Mcf/d (19) GDP Cason-Dickson #1&2 IP: 31 MMcf/d, IP: 23 MMcf/d 8,000 & 3,000’ Laterals
FLORSHEIM 9-16 HC #1&2 10,000’ Laterals IP: 26,500 Mcf/d IP: 27,600 Mcf/d (20) GDP Cason-Dickson 23&24 #3&4 IP: 62,000 Mcf/d 9,300’ Laterals (18) GDP Harris 14&23 #1 IP: 27,500 Mcf/d 6,100’ Lateral (14) GDP Loftus 27&22 #1 & 2 26,000 Mcfe/d 25,000 Mcfe/d 7,500’ Laterals (15) GDP Demmon 34H #1 22,500 Mcf/d 4,600’ Lateral (16) GDP Wurtsbaugh 35H #1 IP: 22,500 Mcf/d 4,600’ Lateral (7) CRK Cook 21-28 HC #2 10,000’ Lateral IP: 26,800 Mcf/d 3,798#/ft (6) CRK Cook 21-28 HC #1 10,000’ Lateral IP: 25,600 Mcf/d 3,803#/ft (2) CRK Nissen 28-21HC #2 10,000’ Lateral IP: 25,000 Mcf/d 3,801#/ft (1) CRK Nissen 28-21HC #1 10,000’ Lateral IP: 27,000 Mcf/d 3,796#/ft (17) Covey Park Tucker 31-6C H1 IP 18,045 Mcf/d 7,466’ Lateral
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-16 17 18-20 21 22
(22) GDP Melody Jones 20H-1 4,600’ Lateral IP: 22,000 Mcf/d
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(23) CRK Gates 26-35 #1 & #2 10,000’ Laterals IP: 24,600 Mcf/d IP: 23,700 Mcf/d
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GROSS NET PROVED YE19 SEC POTENTIAL TOTAL 3P PARISH/ GROSS NET REMAINING REMAINING RESERVES PV10 NET RESERVES NET RESOURCE COUNTY AREA ACRES ACRES LOCATIONS LOCATIONS (BCFE) * (MM) (BCFE) ** POTENTIAL Caddo/DeSoto Panola Bethany- Longstreet 30,300 16,000 137 63 411 $224 740 1,151 Caddo Greenwood- Waskom 4,100 3,600 54 31 40 2 445 485 Bienville Swan Lake/Thorn Lake 1,600 1,400 25 2 59 55 35 94 Other Angelina River, Other 6,000 3,000 1 1 1 Total Haynesville 42,000 24,000 216 96 511 282 1,220 1,731 TMS LA, MS 47,800 33,000 6 15 6 Totals 89,800 57,200 216 96 517 $297 1,220 1,737
* YE19 Proved Reserves - Netherland Sewell & Ryder Scott ** 2.5 Bcfe/1k ft of Lateral Applied to Potential Reserves. Angelina River Potential Not Quantified
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Assumptions Louisiana EUR 12.6 Bcf (2.7 Bcf/1,000’) Sales Gas BTU Price Adjustment 1.020 Pricing Differentials/ Transportation Average - NYMEX less $0.15 / MMBtu Transportation: $0.30 / Mcf Fixed Opex Fixed Opex: $3,290 / month Variable Opex $0.07 / Mcf Severance Tax Payout or 24 month tax holiday; thereafter $0.12 / Mcf Ad Val Tax $0.03 / Mcf Royalty Burden 27.0% D&C Capex $7.0 MM Facilities/Tubing Capex $0.381 MM, included in D&C Capex Spud to 1st Sale 60 Days PV10 (M$)
($2.75/Mcf Pricing)
$7,047 (Post Capex) Economic EUR’s vary depending on gas price assumptions. 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 20 40 60 80 100 120 Avg Daily Produ duction
pd) Months hs
4, 4,60 600' 0' L Lateral Type Curve
4,600' Lateral EUR Capex (Mmcfe) ($M) 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110% 2.00 25.0% 37.8% 52.6% 2.00 53.0% 37.8% 27.0% 2.25 43.3% 61.3% 81.9% 2.25 82.8% 61.3% 45.9% 2.50 65.0% 89.2% 117.1% 2.50 118.5% 89.2% 68.3% 2.75 90.5% 122.1% 158.9% 2.75 161.0% 122.1% 94.6% 3.00 120.0% 160.6% 208.4% 3.00 211.4% 160.6% 125.1%
Ownership: WI 100% - NRI 73% Pricing: Flat Pricing AFE: Two well pad.
IRR Sensitivity Analysis Estimates (IRR Sensitivity to EURs and Capex) IRRs Incoporate Early Time Outperformance
Gas Price Gas Price
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Assumptions Louisiana EUR 21 Bcf (2.8 Bcf/1,000’) Sales Gas BTU Price Adjustment 1.020 Pricing Differentials/ Transportation Average - NYMEX less $0.15 / MMBtu Transportation - $0.30 / Mcf Fixed Opex Fixed Opex: $3,290 / month Variable Opex $0.07 / Mcf Severance Tax Payout or 24 month tax holiday; thereafter $0.12 / Mcf Ad Val Tax $0.03 / Mcf Royalty Burden 27.0% D&C Capex $8.9 MM Facilities/Tubing Capex $0.408 MM, included in D&C Capex Spud to 1st Sale 60 Days
PV10 (M$)
($2.75/Mcf Pricing)
$13,453 (Post Capex) Economic EUR’s vary depending on gas price assumptions. 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 20 40 60 80 100 120 Avg Daily Produ duction
pd) Months hs
7, 7,50 500' 0' L Lateral Type Curve 7,500' Lateral EUR Capex (Mmcfe) ($M) 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110% 2.00 47.8% 65.5% 85.7% 2.00 86.8% 65.5% 49.6% 2.25 72.8% 97.5% 125.9% 2.25 127.7% 97.5% 75.0% 2.50 102.6% 135.9% 174.8% 2.50 177.5% 135.9% 105.4% 2.75 137.8% 181.9% 233.9% 2.75 237.7% 181.9% 141.3% 3.00 179.0% 236.3% 304.9% 3.00 310.1% 236.3% 183.3%
Ownership: WI 100% - NRI 73% Pricing: Flat Pricing AFE: Two well pad.
IRR Sensitivity Analysis Estimates (IRR Sensitivity to EURs and Capex) IRRs Incoporate Early Time Outperformance
Gas Price Gas Price
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Assumptions Louisiana EUR 25 Bcf (2.5 Bcf/1,000’) Sales Gas BTU Price Adjustment 1.020 Pricing Differentials/ Transportation Average - NYMEX less $0.15 / MMBtu Transportation: $0.30 / Mcf Fixed Opex Fixed Opex: $3,290 / month Variable Opex $0.07 / Mcf Severance Tax Payout or 24 month tax holiday; thereafter $0.12 / Mcf Ad Val Tax $0.03 / Mcf Royalty Burden 27.0% D&C Capex $10.7 MM Facilities/Tubing Capex $0.485 MM, included in D&C Capex Spud to 1st Sale 60 Days PV10 (M$)
($2.75/Mcf Pricing)
$15,226 (Post Capex) 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 20 40 60 80 100 120 Avg Daily Produ duction
pd) Months hs
10 10,000 00' L Lateral Ty Type C Curve
10,000' Lateral EUR Capex (Mmcfe) ($M) 90% 100% 110% 90% 100% 110% 2.00 27.7% 39.9% 53.9% 2.00 54.5% 39.9% 29.4% 2.25 47.8% 65.7% 86.1% 2.25 87.3% 65.7% 50.1% 2.50 72.3% 97.1% 125.6% 2.50 127.4% 97.1% 75.4% 2.75 101.6% 134.7% 173.2% 2.75 175.8% 134.7% 105.5% 3.00 135.8% 179.2% 179.2% 3.00 233.5% 179.2% 140.9%
Ownership: WI 100% - NRI 73% Pricing: Flat Pricing AFE: Two well pad.
IRR Sensitivity Analysis (IRR Sensitivity to EURs and Capex) IRRs Incoporate Early Time Outperformance
Gas Price Gas Price
Economic EUR’s vary depending on gas price assumptions
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 GDP Cash Opex Cash Interest Expense
$0. $0.94 $1. $1.02 $1. $1.69 $1. $1.79 $2. $2.74
Peers include: AR,COG,CRK,EQT,GDP, GPOR,MR,RRC,SWN
$1. $1.05 $1. $1.34 $1. $1.59 $2. $2.30
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0% 20% 40% 60%
Cash Margin*
3 3
2% 2%
GDP DP
54 54% 38 38% 33 33% 21 21% 11 11% 6% 6%
2% 2%
Peer Companies Include: AR,COG,CRK,EQT,GDP,GP OR,MR,RRC,SWN
47 47%
27% 20
* Cash Margin = Per Unit Cash Flow/Net Realized Price
Cash Flow Generation With Strong Balance Sheet and Low
Trading Multiple Creates an Attractive Entry Point for the Stock
18+ Year Inventory on Core Haynesville Position Provides ~1.7
Tcf of Resource Potential on Acreage Predominately Held By Production
A Continued Reduction in Per Unit Cash Costs Driven By High
Volume, Low Lifting Cost Wells, Combined with Higher Natural Gas Prices Setting the Company Up for Significant Margin Expansion
Potential for Top Tier Growth and Free Cash Flow Yield
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