Macroeconomic and financial markets outlook Ionut Dumitru - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Macroeconomic and financial markets outlook Ionut Dumitru - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ROMANIA Macroeconomic and financial markets outlook Ionut Dumitru Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania February 2016 Economic growth momentum has strengthen as domestic demand accelerated Domestic demand (private consumption and


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ROMANIA Macroeconomic and financial markets outlook

Ionut Dumitru Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania February 2016

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Economic growth momentum has strengthen as domestic demand accelerated

 Domestic demand (private consumption and investments) should further remain the major driver of GDP growth following the recent boost provided by the cut of taxes and by the increase of wages in the public sector.  Economic growth is shared by all major sectors of activity (industry, construction, services).

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Real GDP and domestic demand

Real GDP (% yoy) Private consumption (% yoy) Gross fixed capital formation (% yoy)

  • 9
  • 6
  • 3

3 6 9 12 01Q3 03Q3 05Q3 07Q3 09Q3 11Q3 13Q3 15Q3

Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy)

6.9% per year 2.8% per year

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Strong rebound of households’ confidence and propensity to spend

 Fast growth of real disposable income has resulted in a rapid increase of consumer confidence. Rapid increase of private consumption was the key driver of GDP growth in 2014 and in 2015.  Private consumption should remain a major driver of GDP growth going forward as cuts of VAT rate, increase of public wages, and hike of minimum wage would provide additional incentives for individuals to increase spending.

Note: Employees’ remuneration = (number of employees * net wage ) in private companies with at least four employees and in the public sector Source: National Institute of Statistics, European Commission, GfK, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3

Households' spending (11Q1=100)

Nominal sales of durable consumer goods Real retail sales Real private consumption

  • 70
  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

Consumer confidence indicator

Unemployment expectations over next 12 months General economic situation over next 12 months Financial situation over next 12 months Savings over next 12 months Consumer confidence

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15

Employees' remuneration (real terms, % yoy)

Private sector Total economy

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Performance of exports has deteriorated, but the upward trend should continue

 Exports of goods towards some Emerging Markets (Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey, Brazil, China) decreased in 2015 and this limited the advance of total exports.  Strengthening of external demand and still low level of domestic labor cost should preserve the upward trend of exports in 2016-2017.

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

2013 2014 1 Germany 18.5 19.3 2 Italy 11.5 11.9 3 France 6.8 6.8 4 Hungary 5.0 5.1 5 Turkey 5.1 4.5 6 United Kingdom 4.1 4.1 7 Bulgaria 3.4 3.4 8 Russia 2.8 2.8 9 Spain 2.4 2.7 10 Netherlands 3.1 2.6 11 Poland 2.4 2.5 12 Austria 2.4 2.4 13 Czech Rep. 2.0 2.3 14 United States 1.7 1.9 15 Slovakia 1.7 1.8 16 Belgium 1.9 1.7 Total 74.7 75.5 EU 28 70 71 Non EU 28 30 29 % of total RO exports Rank in 2014 Partner country 13 14 15 16 30 34 38 42 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15

Exports of goods, by partner countries

Exports to EU countries (EUR bn, last 12M) Exports to non-EU countries (EUR bn, last 12M, RHS)

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Good prospects for economy to keep growing in the next years

 The low level of GDP per capita suggests that the real convergence process should remain in place from a medium and long term perspective. The main challenge for authorities would be to implement reforms aimed to speed up the real convergence process.

Source: European Commission, National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

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  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F

Real GDP (% yoy)

6.5% per year 2.7% 3.8%

20 40 60 80 100 120 Bulgaria Turkey Romania Croatia Latvia Poland Hungary Greece Lithuania Estonia Slovakia Portugal Slovenia Cyprus Czech Republic Malta Spain Italy France Finland United Kingdom Belgium Iceland Denmark Germany Sweden Austria Netherlands Ireland

GDP per capita in PPS in 2015 (% of average for Germany and France)

Note: European Commission’s estimates as of February 2016

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Fiscal consolidation trend was suddenly reversed

 Public budget deficit is foreseen to increase towards 3.0%

  • f GDP in 2016 and to remain close to this level in 2017.

 The reversal of the fiscal consolidation trend is the consequence of both a reduction of taxes and an increase

  • f public spending:

 VAT rate cuts in 2015, 2016 and 2017  hike of public wages at the end of 2015  increase of some social transfers starting with 2015  reduction of tax on dividends in 2016  removal of tax on special constructions in 2017  reduction of excises for fuels in 2017  The target of a structural public deficit amounting to 1.0%

  • f GDP assumed by Romania as part of the Fiscal

Compact (MTO) will be missed in 2016 as well as in the subsequent years.  We expect also the current account deficit to increase in the following years as the rapid advance of domestic demand (boosted also by the fiscal stimulus) should result in a faster increase of imports than of exports.

Source: Ministry of Public Finances, European Commission, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

  • 9
  • 8
  • 7
  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Public budget balance

Consolidated budget balance (cash basis, % of GDP) Cyclically adjusted public budget balance (% of GDP)

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Negative inflation rate due to temporary favorable supply side shocks

 Cuts of VAT rate (June 2015, January 2016) should keep the annual inflation rate in the negative territory until May 2016 and at a low level until December 2016. The annual inflation rate would jump to 2.5% yoy at the beginning of 2017 when the favorable statistical base effect fuelled by VAT rate cuts would fully fade out.  We expect the NBR to keep the key rate unchanged at 1.75% in 2016 as its focus would be on underlying inflationary pressures, on rapid economic growth and on risks related to fiscal policy.

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

Inflation outlook

NBR mid-point target (%, yoy) CPI (%, yoy) Forecast

  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food at constant indirect taxes (% yoy)

Poland Hungary Euro Area Romania 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

Key rate and money market rates

ROBOR 1M ROBOR 3M ROBOR 6M NBR key rate

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

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Interest rates at historical lows to offer support for economic activity

 Lending interest rates in RON and FCY have reached historically low levels, which bodes well for indebted companies and individuals, and for new lending activity.  Lending in RON has improved substantially, offsetting for the decline in stock of FCY denominated loans. As a result, annual dynamics of outstanding gross loans (RON+FCY) returned to the positive territory in Q4 2015.

Source: National Bank of Romania, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

19.8

  • 10.2

2.8

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Outstanding gross loans to households and companies

RON denominated (% yoy) FCY denominated (% yoy in EUR equiv.) Total RON + FCY (% yoy, FX adjusted)

  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15

Dynamics of new loans in RON and EUR

Companies Housing Consumer, other purposes Total new loans in RON and EUR (% yoy)

  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15

Dynamics of new loans in RON and EUR

RON denominated EUR denominated Total new loans in RON and EUR (% yoy)

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