Lufthansa Group Roadshow Presentation
June 2015
Lufthansa Group Roadshow Presentation June 2015 Disclaimer in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Lufthansa Group Roadshow Presentation June 2015 Disclaimer in respect of forward-looking statements Information published in this presentation concerning the future development of the Lufthansa Group and its subsidiaries consists purely of
June 2015
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Information published in this presentation concerning the future development of the Lufthansa Group and its subsidiaries consists purely of forecasts and assessments and not of definitive historical facts. These forward-looking statements are based on all discernible information, facts and expectations available at the time. They can, therefore, only claim validity up to the date of their publication. Since forward-looking statements are by their nature subject to uncertainties and imponderable risk factors – such as changes in underlying economic conditions – and rest on assumptions that may not occur, or may occur differently, it is possible that the Group’s actual results and development may differ materially from the forecasts. Lufthansa makes a point of checking and updating the information it publishes. However, the Company is under no obligation to update forward-looking statements or adapt them to subsequent events or developments. Accordingly, it neither explicitly nor implicitly accepts liability, nor gives any guarantee for the actuality, accuracy or completeness
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A unique portfolio of airlines and aviation services as basis for future success
Hub airlines to improve profitability at current size; P2P airlines and aviation services to grow
All operating segments improve; SWISS and Lufthansa Cargo show strongest positive development
2015 will be year of following through: fleet optimization, CASK reduction & revenue quality improvement
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Logistics Catering MRO
Other Services
Multi-hub, multi-brand
Total revenue 2014 Total revenue 2014
Internal Revenue External Revenue
21.4 bn € 2.6 bn € Total revenue 2014 Total revenue 2014 2.4 bn € 4.3 bn €
Poin-to-point
1.9 bn € Total revenue 2014
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Revenue Adjusted EBIT
Airlines
Passenger Airline Group Logistics (Cargo)
Service Companies
MRO Catering IT Services*
Others incl. Group Functions
+6.7% +1.8%
23.3 bn 2.4 bn 4.3 bn 0.7 bn 2.7 bn 44 m
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
non-airline profits
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
+3.9% 1.4% +12.1% +4.3%
123 m 701 m
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
+11.3% +7.4% +4.2% +3.2%
380 m 88 m
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
*dissolved and partly integrated in „Others“ segment from FY 2015
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produces strong cash flows
ambitious balance sheet targets provide security buffer
competitive edge in financing conditions; low net financial debt, but pension provision burden
in bn EUR
S&P Investment Grade Rating (BBB-, stable) confirmed in May 2015 pension provisions: flexible funding model, no "margin call" for additional fundings
>70% of fleet is financially unburdened (not used as security for financing deals) Q1 2015 0.5 1.4 2014
2.0 2013 1.3 3.3 2012 1.4 2.8 2011 0.7 2.4 Free Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow Q1 2015
0.4 2014 1.2 1.4 2013 1.0 1.8 2012 0.7 1.8 2011 1.0 1.7
Depreciation
Target FY 14 Q1 15 Min. Liquidity 2.6bn EUR 3.0bn EUR Debt Re- payment Ratio 21% 17% Equity Ratio 13% 8% 45% (min. 35%) 25% midterm 2.3 bn EUR
Q1 2015 2014 2.9 10.2 3.4 7.2 2013 2011 1.7 4.7 2012 2.0 5.8 2.3 2.2 net financial debt pension provisions
Issuance of 1.125% Bond Volume of 500 m EUR and a maturity of 5 years (Sept 2014 - Sept 2019) Recent Debt financing
14.3 bn €
leased
unencumbered
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X2 A380-800 4 B747-8 44 B777 (Freighter + PAX) X1 A330-300 25 A350-900 76 166 A320 Family 30 Bombardier CS100 Delivery schedule
777-9X from 2020
2015 16 17 18 19 Aircraft type
Aircraft orders: long-haul
196
Aircraft orders: short-haul
Aircraft type Delivery schedule 2015 16 17 18 19
Lufthansa Group Fleet (as of 31. March 2015)
Thereof fleet invest FY 16 FY 17 2.5 FY 13 2.0 2.5 2.5 FY 15 2.9 FY 14 2.3 2.8
(bn EUR)
Net invest Gross invest Aircraft to be phased-out
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2000 0.60 2014 0.00 2009 0.00 2008 0.70 2007 1.25 2006 0.70 2005 0.50 2004 0.30 2003 0.00 2002 0.60 2001 0.00 2013 0.45 2012 0.00 2011 0.25 2010 0.60
Dividend per share in EUR
continue regular payments
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Dividend Year Financial Year
Old Dividend Policy New Dividend Policy Operating Result EBIT 30%-40% pay-out 10-25% pay-out local GAAP net result = max payout in m EUR local GAAP net result = max payout in m EUR
Regular Pay-outs
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A unique portfolio of airlines and aviation services as basis for future success
Hub airlines to improve profitability at current size; P2P airlines and aviation services to grow
All operating segments improve; SWISS and Lufthansa Cargo show strongest positive development
2015 will be year of following through: fleet optimization, CASK reduction & revenue quality improvement
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#3 Pan-European Point-to-Point Airline
Point to Point / Secondary Brand Eurowings
#1 in Aviation Services
Aviation Services
#1 Multi-Brand Premium Hub System in Europe
Hub Airlines
Integrated Value Chain Financial Stability Strong Brand Family Attractive Employer Strong Home Markets Natural Hedging Customer Data …
Margin improvement Profitable Growth
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Constantly improving efficiency Customer centricity & quality focus Innovation & digitalization Effective & lean
Value based steering New concepts for growth Culture & leadership
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New First Class New Business Class New Premium Economy Class 5 Star Service Upgrades
Lufthansa Passenger Airlines Lufthansa Group Airlines
Full flat Business Class seats now standard in the Lufthansa Group
600 new seats until Jun. 2015 7,000 new seats until Sep. 2015 3,600 new seats until Oct. 2015
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Intra- European 46.1%
(-0.5pts.)
Asia Pacific 17.8%
(+0.2pts)
North America 22.8%
(+1.4pts.)
South America 5.8%
(-0.5pts.)
Africa 3.7%
(-0.3pts.)
Mid-East 3.8%
(-0.3pts.)
First JV for Japan-Europe and Europe-China* Largest Transatlantic Joint Venture Largest Airline Group in Europe
Traffic revenue shares Passenger Airline Group as of 31 December 2014 (comparison to previous year) * Joint venture with Air China in progress (MoU signed in 2014)
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Classic GDS Distribution
GDS controlled
Content Corporate Retailer Online TA Travel Agency GDS
Limited add. feature
(i.e. Seat reservation)
Booking Class Price Route
etc.
Offer
LH Direct Sales LH.com, Call Center, Airport Office, City Office
70% of bookings via GDS’s 30% of bookings via LH Direct Sales
Incentive GDS fee Transaction Fee Terminal Fee Discount for FCA*
Full Content
*Full Content Agreement (FCA): Additional contract specification, which offers access to „full content“ to the GDS (i.e. to all prices and availabilities as well as all functionalities). In return the GDS grants extensive discounts on the list prices
capability But
Proprietary
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Travelers Lufthansa Group Alternative Content Aggregators* etc. Airline Offer Management System New Entrants Travel Agents
(including Travel Management Companies, Online Travel Agents and Independent Travel Agents)
Further Content Aggregation Direct Connect / Website Saver Flex Holiday Your Offer
Standardized Tailored Personalized
Booking Class Route
Offer
Extensive Added value services Price
Corporate Online Booking Engine, Website, SME Portal
Benefit
Classic GDS Distribution GDS
etc.
Distributive Freedom
* DCC exempt if channel meets economic, technical and legal requirements by LHG
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Reduce overhead costs through shared services Freeze fleet size Turn LHP into process oriented company Reduction of costs at all suppliers (ATC, internal suppliers, etc.) Introduction of 2 class long-haul fleet Roll-out new First and Business Class Become first western 5 Star Airline Premium Economy Restructuring of outstation operations
2015 Capacity & fleet dimensioning Fleet development and
platforms Invest in revenue quality General measures to reduce unit cost 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014
Phase-in A380 and B747-8 Reduced ASK growth rate until competitive structures have been established Lower cost sub-fleet of 14 A343 launch new technology a/c Eurowings long-haul operations Reduction of IT infrastructure costs Reduction short-haul fleet from 9 to 3 different a/c types Transfer non-hub operations to Germanwings and achievement of break-even Roll-over Eurowings fleet to A320 a/c
Revenue Quality Cost structures
Product initiatives
A320neo delivery Eurowings base in VIE Individualized customer approach New services along the customer travel chain Improved direct sales channels Renegotiation of labor contracts to competitive level Modification of pension schemes Strategic partnership Air China
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79,8% 722 77,9% 2009 234 710 2010 260 258 77,6% 2013 79,6% 615 696 2014 80,1% 144 432 75,0% 2005 147 2011 627 622 430 513 169 2006 75,2% 79,8% 2007 268 2012 2008 208 263 524 78,9% 78,8% 195 ASK (bn) # of aircraft SLF (%)
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Mediators will propose recommendation about provisions for cabin crews on 20th June
new fleet of Airbus A320
pilots and cabin crew
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long-haul operations from fall 2015
with Austrian crews
Until 2013
Evolution into Eurowings Long-haul flights to start from Nov 2015
2013-2015 2015 onwards New Eurowings New Germanwings LH Direct and Germanwings
Ancillaries
BEST
Pricing Inflight entertainment In-seat + own devices
loss- making break- even 2015 #3 point-to- point carrier
Fare structure
Innovations News
Varadero Punta Cana Phuket Bangkok Dubai
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398 404 318 2014 2013 2012 100 105 85 2012 2014 2013
100 m EUR
airline-catering
retail business
product and service portfolio
how in food and logistics to new adjacent markets
392 m EUR
independent MRO-provider
services
APAC, Middle East, North America until 2018
strategic partnerships enable access to new customers and markets
China (MoU signed in 2014)
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and integrated commercial steering
through dedicated resources and higher degree of entrepreneurial freedom
non-travel industries
point-to-point platforms
EUR 100m despite weak air cargo market
cargo carriers with approx. 300 destinations
2013 and 2015
100 77 105 2012 2014 2013
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The Lufthansa Compliance
implementation, development and communication
Lufthansa Compliance program Fuel consumption dropped below 4 liters in 2013* Corporate social responsibility Continuous efficiency gain improves CO2 footprint
*Fuel consumption per passenger per 100 km
Help Alliance, Cargo Human Care, SOS Kinderdorf
fuel efficiency, noise reduction, crane protection
sponsorships
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A unique portfolio of airlines and aviation services as basis for future success
Hub airlines to improve profitability at current size; P2P airlines and aviation services to grow
All operating segments improve; SWISS and Lufthansa Cargo show strongest positive development
2015 will be year of following through: fleet optimization, CASK reduction & revenue quality improvement
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Q1 2015 Q1 2014
Operating cash flow 1,394 855 +63.0% Net invest 862 660 +30.6% Free cash flow 532 195 +172.8% Q1 2015 FY 2014
Equity ratio 7.5% 13.2%
Net debt (excl. pensions) 2,890 3,418
Pension provisions 10,211 7,231 +41.2%
Passenger Airline KPIs
Q1 2015
ASK (capacity) +1.0% RPK (volume) +1.3% SLF (load factor) +0.2pts. Yield (pricing) +3.7% RASK (unit revenue) +4.1% CASK (unit costs) +6.0%
Lufthansa Group (in m EUR)
Q1 2015 Q1 2014
Total revenue 6,973 6,462 +7.9%
5,419 5,161 +5.0% EBIT
+33.6% Adjusted EBIT
+30.4% Net income 425
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Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2014 in m EUR
Passenger Airline Group Logistics MRO Catering Others & Consolidation Revenue
5,157
+5.2%
614
+5.3%
1,249
+18.6%
672
+15.7%
+78
52
+27
106
+3
+3
in m EUR
Lufthansa Passenger Airlines* SWISS Austrian Airlines Revenue
3,732
+4.9%
1,055
+10.1%
390
+23
51
+47
+1 Share of LH Group‘s external revenue 71.6% 1.0% 7.7% 11.0% 8.7%
* incl. Germanwings and regional airlines
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Total Q1 2015 Number of flights
ASK +1.0% RPK +1.3% SLF +0.2pts. Yield +3.7% Yield ex currency
RASK +4.1% RASK ex currency
CASK incl. fuel +6.0% CASK ex currency ex fuel +2.8% Europe Q1 2015 ASK
RPK
SLF +0.9pts. Yield +3.7% Yield ex currency
RASK +4.9% RASK ex currency +0.8% Asia/Pacific Q1 2015 ASK +2.7% RPK +1.7% SLF
Yield +1.3% Yield ex currency
RASK +0.3% RASK ex currency
Americas Q1 2015 ASK +4.6% RPK +5.5% SLF +0.6pts. Yield +9.0% Yield ex currency
RASK +9.8% RASK ex currency +0.4% Mid East / Africa Q1 2015 ASK +2.1% RPK
SLF
Yield +3.1% Yield ex currency
RASK +0.5% RASK ex currency
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A unique portfolio of airlines and aviation services as basis for future success
Hub airlines to improve profitability at current size; P2P airlines and aviation services to grow
All operating segments improve; SWISS and Lufthansa Cargo show strongest positive development
2015 will be year of following through: fleet optimization, CASK reduction & revenue quality improvement
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Full Year 2015 assumptions Explanation
Fleet rollover: Continued phase out of small, non-efficient aircraft
Capacity
(ASK) Capacity growth mainly achieved through more seats per
Volume
(RPK)
Load Factor
(SLF)
Pricing
(Yield ex currency) High degree of uncertainty around market dynamics from lower fuel price (surcharge, yield, capacity discipline)
Unit Revenue
(RASK ex currency)
Unit Costs
(CASK ex fuel ex currency) Headwinds included: ATC charges, staff and pension cost, higher depreciation
Cargo Capacity
Reduction in freighter capacity offset by growing belly capacity of passenger aircraft
slightly up above capacity growth clearly negative further reduction
slightly reduced clearly negative
Page 29 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 FY 2015
* incl. fuel hedging as of 20 April 2015
Lufthansa Group fuel expenses after hedging (in bn EUR)
Sensitivities with deviating oil price 6.7 (+20%) 6.5 (+10%) 6.0 (-10%) 5.7 (-20%) Fuel hedging level 79% 79% 78% 78% 79% 59% Expected volume (in m tons) 9.1 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 slight increase Jet fuel price (USD/ton)* 734 745 722 734 735 731 EUR/USD forward
1.07 Brent forward (USD/bbl)
69
Lufthansa Group price curve remainder of 2015 and 2016
Market price in USD/barrel Price paid in USD/barrel Market price: 66 USD/bbl LH price: 77 USD/bbl Hedging result: -11 USD/bbl Hedging result 2014 2015e FY 2016 Hedging result LH price 2015 LH price 2016 Market price 6.8 6.2 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
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Segment
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
Lufthansa Passenger Airlines 252 399 significantly above previous year SWISS 289 278 slightly above previous year Austrian Airlines 10 9 significantly above previous year Consolidation 2 15 Passenger Airline Group 553 701 significantly above previous year Logistics 100 123 slightly above previous year MRO 392 380 slightly below previous year Catering 100 88 significantly above previous year IT Services 37 44 dissolution of segment Others
significant improvement Internal Result / Consolidation
Lufthansa Group 954 1,171 more than 1,500 m EUR before strike cost
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987 725 972 2015 forecast 2014 1,171 2013 2012 2011 2010 1,297
Lufthansa Group Adjusted EBIT Actual and Forecast
in m EUR
Financial Year 2015
passenger airlines
profit level
especially towards USD and CHF
airlines
Passenger Airlines
“more than 1.5 bn EUR"
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Deutsche Lufthansa AG Investor Relations / FRA IR Lufthansa Aviation Center Airportring D-60546 Frankfurt Andreas Hagenbring, Head of IR Phone: +49 (0) 69 696 28000 Fax: +49 (0) 69 696 90990 E-mail: investor.relations@dlh.de
Visit our webpage: lufthansa-group.com/investor-relations
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358 Q1 2015 1,554 5,419 Currency: +6.9% Price: -2.8%
Volume: +0.9% 44 Q1 2014 1,301 5,161 Traffic revenue (+5.0%) Other revenue (+19.4%) ∑ Group revenue (+7.9%) ∑ 6,462 ∑ 6,973 Currency impact on EBIT (in m EUR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY (YTD) 2014
+63
2015
in m EUR
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313 182 Price
Volume 20 Q1 2014
Q1 2015 1,308 Currency Hedging 1,517 in m EUR Hedging result by quarter (in m EUR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY (YTD) 2014
2015
Cost of hedging increased yoy
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Lufthansa Group (in m EUR)
Q1 2015
Total revenue 6,973 +7.9% Other operating income 913 +74.9%
Total operating income 7,886 +12.9% Operating expenses 8,019 +11.5% Non-fuel operating expenses 6,711 +18.2% Cost of materials and services 3,977 +1.1%
Fuel expenses 1,308
Fees and charges 1,246 +6.7%
Staff costs 1,922 +6.9% Depreciation 374 +10.0% Other operating expenses 1,746 +55.6% Result from equity investments
EBIT
+33.6% Adjustments
0.0% Adjusted EBIT
+30.4%
+4.9% excl. pensions +18.0% excl. exchange rate losses
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Lufthansa Group (in m EUR)
Q1 2015
EBT (earnings before income taxes) 356 +663 Depreciation & amortisation (incl. non-current assets) 395 +42 Net proceeds from disposal of non-current assets
Result from equity investments 11 +3 Net interest result
Income tax payments/reimbursements
+1 Measurement of financial derivatives through profit or loss
Change in working capital 1,368 +593 Operating cash flow 1,394 +539 Capital expenditure (net)
Free cash flow 532 +337 Cash and cash equivalents as of 31.03.15* 825 +63 Current securities 2,216
Total Group liquidity 3,041
* Excluding fixed-term deposits with terms from three to twelve months (92 m EUR) FY 2011 2.4 Q1 2015 1.4 FY 2014 2.0 FY 2013 3.3 FY 2012 2.8 Operating Cash Flow Q1 2015 0.9 0.8 GJ 2014 2.3 2.8 GJ 2013 2.0 2.5 GJ 2012 1.4 2.4 GJ 2011 1.6 2.6 Net Invest Gross Invest FY 2011 0.7 Q1 2015 0.5 FY 2014
FY 2013 1.3 FY 2012 1.4 Free Cash Flow
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10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Logistics 4.3 8.5 Passenger Airline Group
Austrian Airlines
SWISS 0.4 4.8 Lufthansa Passenger Airlines
Catering
MRO 9.8 8.5
Lufthansa Group
all figures in %
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
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11.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Passenger Airline Group 2.7 3.0 Austrian Airlines 0.4 1.3 3.3 4.9 6.6 Lufthansa Passenger Airlines 2.5 3.9 IT Services 6.3 6.8 Catering 4.4 3.3 MRO 11.3 8.8 Logistics 4.3 5.1 Lufthansa Group 2.3 SWISS
all numbers in %
FY 2013 FY 2014
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in m EUR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 6M 9M Full Year
Adjusted EBIT 2014
418 810 183 178 988 1,171
+7
Adjusted EBIT ex one-off factors
501 838 315 309 1,147 1,462 Adjusted EBIT 2015
Adjusted EBIT ex one-off factors
+127
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ROCE = (EBIT + Interest on Liquidity – Tax) Average Capital Employed
EBIT
Balance Sheet Total Capital Employed Current Year WACC
EACC
./. operating costs + Interest on Liquidity ./. Tax (assumed tax rate 25%) ./. Cost of Capital ./. non-interest bearing liabilities +/- pension changes: past service costs,… +/- book gains/losses
+/- impairments
+ Income from Subsidiaries Total Op. Income
(Rev.+ Oth. Op. Income)
50 : 50
Capital Employed Last Year
X
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ROCE = (1,000 + 84 - 271) 17,565
EBIT: 1,000
30,474 17,584 5.9%
EACC: -223
./. 31,235 + 84 ./. 271 ./. 1,036 ./. 12,980
+77 +142
+ 121 32,114
50 : 50
17,545
X
= 4.6%
in m EUR
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1,171 986 725 972 1,000 936 1,645 864 954 699 839 820
2014 2013* 2012 2011
Operating profit EBIT
Total Operating Income 31,070 32,947 32,149 32,114 ./. Operating Expenses
+ Income from Subsidiaries 71 94 124 121 EBIT 864 1,645 936 1,000 ./. Delta to Operating Result
Operating Result 820 839 699 954
972 725 986 1,171 ./. Delta to Operating Result
Operating Result 820 839 699 954 * Restatement due to IFRS11: Aerologic GmbH has been proportionately consolidated as a joint operation since 1 January 2014
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in m EUR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 6M 9M Full Year Operating result
359 735 105 114 849 954
418 810 183 178 988 1,171
pension changes +15 +33 +15 +48 book gains / losses on asset disposals +13 +8
+13 +21
impairments +10 +15
25 24
EBIT
433 832
216 1,048 1,000
interest on liquidity +84 taxes (25% lump sum)
cost of capital
EACC
average capital employed 17,565 WACC 5.9%
ROCE 4.6%
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Cost of Debt1 Cost of Equity2 3.4% (FY 2014) 8.4% (FY 2014) Target Capital Structure 50 : 50 WACC: 5.9%
1 Currently no consideration of tax shield 2 Cost of Equity FY2014 = Risk-free market interest rate of 2.6% + (Market risk premium of 5.2% x Beta Factor 1.1)
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Balance Sheet Total 28,081 28,559 29,108 30,474 ./. Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities 10,649 10,940 11,563 12,890
2,359 2,612 2,635 2,848
4,758 4,887 5,113 5,151
2,095 2,096 2,151 2,103
1,437 1,345 1,664 2,798 Capital Employed at year-end 17,432 17,619 17,545 17,584 Average Capital Employed 18,101 17,526 17,582 17,565 WACC 7.0% 7.0% 6.2% 5.9% EBIT 864 1.645 936 1,000 Interest on liquidity 62 75 67 84 Taxes
Cost of capital
EACC
63
ROCE 3.8% 7.4% 4.3% 4.6%
17,565 17,545 17,526 18,101
2014 2013* 2012 2011 7.0% 7.0% 6.2 % 5.9% WACC
Average Capital Employed
* Restatement due to IFRS11: Aerologic GmbH has been proportionately consolidated as a joint operation since 1 January 2014
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# months before actual date of consumption
reduce volatility
before actual consumption
until 85% is hedged
in order to still benefit from falling oil prices
hedging horizon) with differing approaches due to competition reasons
Extension of hedging horizon to up to 36 month in order to take advantage of current low oil prices
FY2015 FY2016 79% 59%
Current hedging level status
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Only 3 major ticket distributors (GDS) Thousands of Points of Sale
Standardization Standardization
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