Long-term energy modeling for a decarbonized world: an assessment of the Paris Agreement with an optimization bottom-up model Sandrine SELOSSE & Seungwoo KANG & Nadia MAIZI MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CMA-Centre for Applied Mathematics Chair Modeling for Sustainable Development Sophia Antipolis - France
The Paris Agreement: increasing the ambition of the long-term goal 2/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 Copenhagen Agreement and KP – Period 2 UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol : From adoption to implementation KP - Period 1 COP 21 Paris Agreement: NDCs Nn 1992 1997 2009 2015 2002 2005 2008 2012 2020 … Rio Kyoto Copenhagen Paris An historical agreement: COP 21 marked a decisive stage on the transition to a decarbonized world A major milestone A new objective Article 2.1(a): “(h)olding the increase in the global average Higher level of Recognition of the • temperature to well below 2°C • international above pre-industrial levels and to 1.5°C (without pursue efforts to limit the cooperation after formalization) temperature increase to 1.5°C” decades of The need for • negotiations and net-zero emissions Article 4.1: “(…) to achieve a regional division balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals Political will to initiate • by sinks of greenhouse gases in the a global transition second half of this century” T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Modeling approach: TIAM-FR 3/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP/IEA) • Optimization, linear programming, bottom-up, multiregional • Minimization of the total discounted cost of the system – Long-term possible futures of the energy system • in the Post-Paris climate context Where NPV is the net present value of the total cost for all regions over the projected period; ANNCOST (r,y) is the total annual cost in region r and year y; dr,y is the discount rate; REFYR is the reference year for discounting; YEARS is the set of years and R is the set of regions (15 regions) T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Specification of scenario: decarbonized pathways 4/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 A global 2050 target scenario in line with the long-term UNFCCC 2°C • objective UNFCCC-40 : 40% – UNFCCC-50 : 50% GHG emissions reduction by 2050 compared to 2010 – UNFCCC-70 : 70% – A regional scenario considering the Paris Agreement with NDCs • NDCs scenarios according to Low and High commitments by (2025)2030 – compared to reference year and regional assumptions by 2050 T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Mitigation Mitigation Regions Reference year Target year Reduction level Reduction type 2010-2030 (Low) 2010-2030 (High) Industrialized countries -29.5% Europe (WEU-EEU) 1990 2030 40% The USA (USA) 2025 26% - 28% -33.3% -35.0% Australia and New Zeland (AUS) 2005 26% - 28% Emission reduction -26.0% -28.0% 5/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 -25.8% Canada (CAN) 2030 30% Japan (JPN) 2013 26% -25.5% Fast developing countries China (CHI) 60% - 65% 15.5% 1.1% 2005 2030 Carbon intensity India (IND) 33% - 35% 133% 126.0% Developing countries Russia (FSU) 1990 25% - 30% 16.1% 8.4% Mexico (MEX) 25% - 40% -2.6% -22.1% South Korea (SKO) 37% -20.8% -20.8% 2030 Emission reduction Africa (AFR) BAU 15% - 30% 17.1% -3.5% Middle East (MEA) 15% - 30% 14.7% -5.5% Asian countries (ODA) 15% - 30% 6.5% -12.3% Latin America (CSA) INDCs from TIMES-ALyC 15.3% 8.6% Mitigation Mitigation Regions Reference year Target year Reduction level Reduction type 2030-2050 2030-2050 (LowLow) (UpUp) Industrialized countries Europe (WEU-EEU) 1990 60%-80% -33% -67% The USA (USA) 2005 83% -73% -72% Australia and New Zeland (AUS) 2005 2050 60%-80% Emission reduction -46% -72% Canada (CAN) 2005 60%-80% -43% -71% Japan (JPN) 2013 60%-80% -46% -73% Fast developing countries China (CHI) 2030 2050 Peak emission 2030 0% India (IND) Fast developing countries Russia (FSU) Mexico (MEX) South Korea (SKO) Africa (AFR) 2030 2050 Peak emission 2030 0% Middle East (MEA) Asian countries (ODA) Latin America (CSA) T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Short-term GHG emissions pathways 6/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Long-term GHG emissions pathways 7/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 70 Gt GHG emissions 60 BAU 50 UNFCCC-40 UNFCCC-50 40 UNFCCC-70 30 INDCs-2050-lolo INDCs-2050-loup 20 INDCs-2050-uplo 10 INDCs-2050-upup 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Regional contribution to the mitigation effort 8/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Regional distribution of GHG emission 9/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 2030 – Low targets 2050 – Low targets 2005 2010 2030 – High targets 2050 – High targets T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Technological choices to the mitigation effort World electricity production (PJ) 10/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Technological choices to the mitigation effort World electricity production (PJ) 11/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 160,000 140,000 120,000 CCS 100,000 WIND SOL 80,000 GEOT & TIDE BIOMASS 60,000 NUCLEAR HYDRO 40,000 OIL AND GAS COALS 20,000 - 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BAU UNFCCC-50 INDC-2050-lolo INDC-2050-upup T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Regional electricity production (PJ) – Industrialized countries 12/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 No BECCS = No CCS but Investment in bioplant T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Regional electricity production (PJ) – CCS Plants Fast developing countries 13/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 INDCs Scenarios: no CCS but electricity from bioplant is more important UNFCCC-70-NoBECCS: decarbonized electricity system (solar) T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Regional electricity production (PJ) – Developing countries 14/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 RE T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Carbon storage …. (Gt) 15/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 Increasingly strong climatic constraints Carbon sequestration sites 2°C objective Paris agreement T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Carbon storage by year to achieve the 2°C objective (radiative forcing at 2,6 W/m² by 2100) 16/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 Sensitivity analyses on carbon storage by site and scenario (Gt CO 2 ) Clim_ini Storage potentials Clim_Doo • Initial TIAM – 9,392 Gt Clim_HenL 2050 • Miscellaneous database – 10,142 Gt Clim_HenB • Ref. Dooley – 10,655 Gt • Ref. Hendriks – 572 Gt / 1,706 Gt / 5,864 Gt Clim_HenH Clim_Misc Clim_ini Clim_Doo Clim_HenL 2100 Clim_HenB Clim_HenH Clim_Misc 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Deep saline aquifers (offshore) Deep saline aquifers (onshore) Depl gas fields (offshore) Depl gas fields (onshore) Depl oil fields (offshore) Depl oil fields (onshore) Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov <1000 m Enhanced Coalbed Meth recov >1000 m Enhanced Oil Recovery (offshore) Enhanced Oil Recovery (onshore) T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
Sensitivity analysis on biomass potential and impact on storage carbon 17/18 IFORS – Québec – July 17-21, 2017 Storage carbon sites T h e d e c a r b o n i z e d p a t h w a y s o f t h e p o s t - P a r i s C l i m a t e P o l i c y – S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E
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