Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: China’s Automobile Market
Panle Jia Barwick Shengmao Cao Shanjun Li Cornell University June 2016
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Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: Chinas - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Local Protectionism, Market Structure, and Social Welfare: Chinas Automobile Market Panle Jia Barwick Shengmao Cao Shanjun Li Cornell University June 2016 (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 1 / 50 Chinas Economic Growth
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◮ Intra-country trade barriers ◮ policies and practices that protect local firms against competition from
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
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.2 .4 .6 .8 Anhui Chongqing Fujian Guangdong Guangxi Guizhou Hebei Henan Hubei Hunan Jiangsu Jiangxi Shaanxi Shandong Shanghai Sichuan Yunnan Zhejiang
Local Market Share vs. National Market Share Market Share of Cigarette Products from Major Manufacturers (2007 - 2013)
Local Market Share National Market Share (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 5 / 50
◮ About 1-2% of vehicle prices. Controlled using distance
◮ Local brands might have more dealers in the region ◮ Control the number of dealers, though it is affected by policies
◮ Consumers prefer local brands (information and reputation)
◮ Policies that protect local firms against competition from nonlocal firms (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 6 / 50
◮ First Auto Works (FAW) is a SOE headquartered in Changchun,Jilin ◮ Local governments in Jilin heavily promote FAW brands ◮ From 2009-2010 – ⋆ Require government procurement to give priority to FAW group ⋆ Waive all fees (including registration fees and tolls) for individual
◮ From 2012-2013 – ⋆ Subsidize FAW indigenous brands (not JV brands) by 3500-7000 Yuan
◮ Subsidy up to 2000 Yuan for local brands (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 7 / 50
◮ Local officials are evaluated and promoted based on GDP growth ◮ SOEs are important for local GDP and fiscal revenue
◮ Top executives of SOEs and JVs (their domestic partner) are appointed
◮ SOEs often provide private benefits for local government officials
◮ No effective central policies that prohibit interregional trade barriers ◮ U.S. Constitution’s Commerce Clause prohibits state regulations that
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◮ To what extent are the differences between local and national shares
◮ How does local protectionism affect prices and demand? ◮ What is the welfare impact?
◮ The impacts on firm entry and exit, market structure, and capacity
◮ The impacts on resource allocation across regions and their welfare
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◮ Young (2000), Bai et al. (2004), Holz (2009), Eberhardt et al. (2015) ◮ They identify protectionism by looking for changes in industry
◮ We use disaggregate data for one industry that covers all products in
◮ Ours is the first study to quantify the welfare impacts
◮ Hsieh and Klenow (2009) examines misallocation of inputs ◮ We focus on the misallocation in the product market, which could lead
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1 Introduction 2 Theory 3 Industry Background and Data 4 Empirical Strategy and Results 5 Simulations and Welfare Analysis 6 Conclusion (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 11 / 50
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1 Introduction 2 Theory 3 Industry Background and Data 4 Empirical Strategy and Results 5 Simulations and Welfare Analysis 6 Conclusion (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 15 / 50
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◮ Joint ventures (JVs, 71%), State owned enterprises (SOEs, 12%), ◮ domestic private firms (10%), and imports (7%)
◮ By law, foreign automakers cannot have their own production ◮ VW and GM have the largest presence in China
◮ Important for GDP, employment, and spillovers to other industries ◮ Strategic industry in 26 provinces (out of 31) from 2005 to 2010
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◮ About 30 million observations ◮ Vehicles purchased by individuals: 90% ◮ Vehicles purchased by governments and commercial entities: 10%
◮ Aggregate to province, model, year: 19624 observations
◮ Demographic information (income distribution) from 2005 Census ◮ Prices and attributes from Polk and other sources ◮ Auxiliary data sets for gasoline prices, dealership network, etc (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 21 / 50
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Source: Ford Automobile Buyer Survey 2009-2011 and Annual Statistical Yearbook 2009-2011.
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2 Introduction 3 Theory 4 Industry Background and Data 5 Estimation and Results 6 Simulations and Welfare Analysis 7 Conclusion (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 24 / 50
1 Identify local protection: separate it from other factors 2 Estimate its welfare impacts: a structural model (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 25 / 50
1 Identify local protection: separate it from other factors 2 Estimate its welfare impacts: a structural model (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 25 / 50
◮ HQ: 1 if j is produced by a firm headquartered in market m ◮ Plant: 1 if j is produced by a firm with a plant in market m
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◮ Direct or indirect subsidies ◮ Entry barriers for dealers of nonlocal brands
◮ Private brands enjoy little protection from the government. Its
◮ The home bias for SOEs and JVs above that of private firms is
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◮ Number of products within the same segment by the same firm, or by
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◮ Local vs. non-local products: consumer preference ◮ Local private vs. local SOEs/JVs products: local protection
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◮ Local vs. non-local products: consumer preference ◮ Local private vs. local SOEs/JVs products: local protection
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◮ Local vs. non-local products: consumer preference ◮ Local private vs. local SOEs/JVs products: local protection
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◮ Local governments have more to gain from protecting SOEs ◮ “As local government officials hold the right to appoint the chief executives
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1 Define consumers’ choice set: all available vehicle models; each
2 Define household utility function over product attribute space with
Go to utility function 3 Generate household choice probabilities and aggregate to market
4 Match predicted market shares of different vehicle models with
5 Estimate preference parameters and conduct welfare analysis (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 33 / 50
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◮ BLP contraction mapping to recover the mean utility δmtj conditional
◮ Form aggregate moment conditions based on the recovered mean
◮ Form micro-moment conditions based on simulated household choices ◮ Stack both sets of moment conditions, properly weighted, to form
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j
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α(e ¯ α1)
α2
α3
α4
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2 Introduction 3 Theory 4 Industry Background and Data 5 Structural Model and Results 6 Simulations and Welfare Analysis 7 Conclusion (Cornell) Local Protectionism June 2016 42 / 50
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5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Sales with local protection Sales without local protection
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◮ Choice distortion – local protectionism leads to suboptimal choices ◮ Price effect – firms raise prices due to increased market power in their
◮ Production distortion – production shifts to high-cost producers
◮ Welfare loss from taxation to finance local protection (i.e., through
◮ Dynamic impacts on entry and exit, capacity utilization, and resource
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‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
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◮ More than doubles the sales of local SOEs ◮ Increases the sales of local JVs by 70%
◮ About 12 billion Yuan ($1.9 bn) from 2009 to 2011 ◮ Taxation and subsidies are considered transfers and not included in the
◮ The policy has benefited rich car buyers at the expense of the average
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◮ Diverts production from low-cost producers (JVs and private firms) to
◮ Leads to a large number of inefficient firms ◮ Induces excess capacity and low capacity utilization
◮ Future reform that aims at eliminating local barriers and facilitating a
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