Linking phytoplankton phenology to pink salmon productivity along a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Linking phytoplankton phenology to pink salmon productivity along a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 28, 2023 187 likes •520 views

Linking phytoplankton phenology to pink salmon productivity along a north-south gradient Michael Malick Simon Fraser University, BC, Canada Sean Cox, Randall Peterman, & Franz Mueter @michaelmalick Bottom-up Control b 1999 1 0 ) B

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Michael Malick

Simon Fraser University, BC, Canada

Linking phytoplankton phenology to pink salmon productivity along a north-south gradient

Sean Cox, Randall Peterman, & Franz Mueter

@michaelmalick

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2 1 –1 –2 –3 2 4 6 8 1 1999 1981 1998 1979, 1997 2000 1980 2001 Anomalies in the timing of spring blooms (weeks) S u r v i v a l i n d e x

(

R / S S B

)

b

2

Bottom-up Control

Phytoplankton phenology

(Platt et al. 2003)

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2 1 –1 –2 –3 2 4 6 8 1 1999 1981 1998 1979, 1997 2000 1980 2001 Anomalies in the timing of spring blooms (weeks) S u r v i v a l i n d e x

(

R / S S B

)

b

2

Bottom-up Control

Mean resident fish yield (metric tons km )

  • 2

0.0 2 4 6 1.0 2.0 r p < n = 0.87; 0.0001; = 11 Mean chl-a concentration (mg m )

2

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Phytoplankton biomass

(Ware and Thomson 2005)

Phytoplankton phenology

(Platt et al. 2003)

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2 1 –1 –2 –3 2 4 6 8 1 1999 1981 1998 1979, 1997 2000 1980 2001 Anomalies in the timing of spring blooms (weeks) S u r v i v a l i n d e x

(

R / S S B

)

b

2

Bottom-up Control

Mean resident fish yield (metric tons km )

  • 2

0.0 2 4 6 1.0 2.0 r p < n = 0.87; 0.0001; = 11 Mean chl-a concentration (mg m )

2

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Phytoplankton biomass

(Ware and Thomson 2005)

Phytoplankton phenology

(Platt et al. 2003)

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SLIDE 5

3

Bottom-up Control

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SLIDE 6

3

Bottom-up Control

Survival Marine growth

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SLIDE 7

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Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

Research Question

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Spatial Covariation

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  • Alaska

BC

(Pyper et al. 2001)

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Spatial Covariation

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  • Alaska

BC

(Pyper et al. 2001)

Does the extent of spatial covariation for phytoplankton phenology and biomass match pink salmon?

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7

Salmon Data

Year Productivity (R/S)

1 2 3 4 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Phytoplankton Data

  • Spring bloom initiation date

Year Spring bloom initiation

6 8 10 12 14 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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Phytoplankton Data

  • Spring bloom initiation date

May

Year Biomass (mg / m3)

2 4 6 8 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

  • Year

Spring bloom initiation

6 8 10 12 14 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

  • Phytoplankton biomass (mg/m3)
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9

Spatial Covariation

Correlation Distance (km)

50% Correlation Scale

  • 1. Calculate cross-correlations
  • 2. Plot correlations as a function of geographic distance
  • 3. Fit covariance function to scatterplot
  • 4. Estimate 50% correlation scale
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10

Hierarchical Models

loge(Ri,t/Si,t) = α + ai - βiSi,t + δXi,t+1 + diXi,t+1 + εi,t

Regional Stock #27 Stock #1

...

Spawners log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30

  • Spawners

log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 5 10

  • Spawners

log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2 4 6 8 10

  • Stock #2
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11

Hierarchical Models

loge(Ri,t/Si,t) = α + ai - βiSi,t + δXi,t+1 + diXi,t+1 + εi,t

Regional Stock #27 Stock #1

...

Spawners log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30

  • Spawners

log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 5 10

  • Spawners

log(R/S)

−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2 4 6 8 10

  • Stock #2
  • Spring bloom initiation date
  • Phytoplankton biomass (July-September)
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Spatial Covariation

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Pink Salmon Productivity

Covariance function 50% correlation scale

Distance (km) Correlation coefficient

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

  • 261 km (148-628 km)
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14

Spring Bloom Initiation Date

Covariance function 50% correlation scale

367 km (235-776 km)

Distance (km) Correlation coefficient

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

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Phytoplankton Biomass

Distance (km) Correlation coefficient

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 500 1500 2500

  • ● ●
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  • February

500 1500 2500

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  • March

500 1500 2500

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  • April

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

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  • May
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  • June
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  • July

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

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  • August
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  • September
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  • October
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16

Biomass 50% Correlation Scale

Pink salmon

Month 50% correlation scale (km)

200 400 600 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

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17

Spatial Covariation

  • ●
  • ●
  • ●
  • ●
  • ●
  • ●
  • Alaska

BC

(Pyper et al. 2001)

Does the extent of spatial covariation for phytoplankton phenology and biomass match pink salmon?

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18

Phenology & Biomass Effects

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Spring bloom coefficient Stock number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

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Spring Bloom Initiation Date

Regional effect Stock-specific effect

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SLIDE 24

Spring bloom coefficient Stock number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

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Spring Bloom Initiation Date

Early bloom = Beneficial Late bloom = Beneficial Regional effect Stock-specific effect

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SLIDE 25

Biomass coefficient Stock number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 −3 −2 −1

  • 20

Phytoplankton Biomass

Regional effect Stock-specific effect

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SLIDE 26

Biomass coefficient Stock number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 −3 −2 −1

  • 20

Phytoplankton Biomass

Lower biomass = Beneficial Regional effect Stock-specific effect

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SLIDE 27

21

Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

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SLIDE 28

21

  • 1. Strong and opposite effects of the spring bloom

initiation date on northern and southern stocks

Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

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SLIDE 29

21

  • 1. Strong and opposite effects of the spring bloom

initiation date on northern and southern stocks

Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

North = Downwelling South = Upwelling

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21

  • 1. Strong and opposite effects of the spring bloom

initiation date on northern and southern stocks

  • 2. Significant negative effects of late summer

phytoplankton biomass on salmon productivity

Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

North = Downwelling South = Upwelling

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21

  • 1. Strong and opposite effects of the spring bloom

initiation date on northern and southern stocks

  • 2. Significant negative effects of late summer

phytoplankton biomass on salmon productivity

Do changes in coastal phytoplankton phenology or biomass significantly influence pink salmon productivity?

North = Downwelling South = Upwelling

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SLIDE 32

22

  • 1. Strong and opposite effects of the spring bloom

initiation date on northern and southern stocks

  • 2. Significant negative effects of late summer

phytoplankton biomass on salmon productivity

North = Downwelling South = Upwelling

+ North

  • South

Time Frequency Phenology Mismatch