June 2017 Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a changed world britainthinks.com BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
Here’s a recap of what happened on both sides of the pond… BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 2
A recap of what happened The votes in both countries revealed a generation gap: the older you were, the more likely you were to vote Trump or for Brexit Clinton Neither Trump Remain Leave 18-24 73% 27% 18-29 55% 37% 25-34 62% 38% 30-44 50% 42% 35-44 52% 48% 45-54 44% 56% 45-64 44% 53% 55-64 43% 57% 65+ 45% 53% 65+ 40% 60% But don’t forget that roughly 2 in 5 under-45s voted Trump in the US, and 25-34 year olds for Brexit in the UK BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 3
A recap of what happened Rural and small communities tended to vote Brexit and Trump, with big cities tending to vote for Clinton and to Remain in the EU Clinton Neither Trump Small city 34% 62% or rural Suburbs 45% 50% City over 59% 35% 50,000 BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 4
A recap of what happened Generally, those with fewer qualifications preferred Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US Remain Leave Clinton Neither Trump GCSE or lower 30% 70% High school or less 45% 51% Some college/associate A level 50% 50% 43% 52% degree Higher below 48% 52% College graduate 49% 45% degree Degree 68% 32% Postgrad study 58% 37% This difference was (even) more pronounced in the UK than in the US BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 5
A recap of what happened White voters were more likely to support Brexit and Trump, with support for both much lower among BAMEs Clinton Neither Trump White 37% 58% Black 88% 8% Hispanic 65% 29% Asian 65% 29% Other 56% 37% BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 6
A recap of what happened And attitudinally, Trump and Brexit voters were united in feeling more pessimistic than optimistic about the future of their country Clinton Neither Trump Life for future Americans will be… NET agreement that… Better than 59% 38% life today Worse than 31% 63% life today About the 54% 39% same Trajectory of the country… Right 90% 8% direction Off track 25% 69% BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 7
A recap of what happened But the two stories differ on turnout – and particularly on the mobilisation of disenchanted, apolitical non-voters 2.8 million non-voters swung it Democrat Republican BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 8
The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them – offer some big watch outs for communicators… • Some are new slants on old issues • Some highlight things we already knew but had perhaps forgotten • Some of them feel new and very different to what’s gone before BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 9
#1 Check your bias BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 10
#1 Check your bias We were applying and projecting our own values both before the votes, when we chose to hear what we wanted to hear… Economists projecting their own The analysis & interpretation of the opinion uncertainty onto their predictions: polls in the run-up to the Referendum: 78% “In the end, we couldn’t predict public confidence at all. Because the vast majority of 63% economists thought that Brexit was a bad idea … they put their own views onto the population as a whole and thought the public would tighten 27% 22% their belts and spend less and that’s why you got the forecasts for an immediate downturn.” 10% 0% Chris Giles, Financial Times on More or Less Phone polls Online polls Remain leads Leave leads Ties BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 11
#1 Check your bias …and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’ “Trading is about stuff, but we don’t make goods any more, our REMAIN CAMPAIGN: ‘NORMAL’ VOTER: industry is in decline.” Starting from a place of “I don’t see how it “The EU buys over 50 per limited understanding of helps me – I’m not a cent of UK exports: 54% of not just trade, but also trader, I don’t have goods and 40% of services” business and the stocks and shares.” economy BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 12
#1 Check your bias …and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’ DEMOCRAT RESPONSE TO THE MISSED TRUMP MOVING ON THE TRUMP’S COMMENTS ON WOMEN: OPPORTUNITY? CONVERSATION: Family? Tradition? Gentlemanliness? BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 13
#1 Check your bias But we’re still doing it now, with an ongoing assumption that voters will ‘see sense’ eventually How many in the Westminster ‘bubble’ How voters – including many are describing Brexit: Remainers – are describing Brexit: "When I heard we had ‘gone Brexit’ I felt like England had won the World Cup!" of the British public think 68% that we should go ahead with Brexit YouGov, Nov 2016 BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 14
#2 Get yourself a “change [back]” message BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 15
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Both successful campaigns of 2016 were headed by a big, capacious message “We’ve got to stop this madness, cut all that red tape and regulation and take the reigns!” “Mass immigration is still hopelessly out of control and set to get worse if we remain inside the EU” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 16
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’ BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 17
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’ “‘Go Global’ [was] a firm favourite for many years among a subset of MPs and Farage’s inner circle (Leave.EU adopted this as its first slogan) and a total loser with the public.” Dominic Cummings’s Blog BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 18
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message And which speak to a desire to change – while not pitching everyone into an uncertain future Both speak to a sense of nostalgia for the past… …but also a sense of direction and where they want to go, alluding to specific values and policies BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 19
#3 Start talking values (not just value) BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 20
#3 Start talking values (not just value) Both Trump and Brexit cut across many traditional socio economic divides Some leavers But a great are ‘left behind’ deal aren’t ‘left behind’ • Nothing to lose • Driven by desire • Economically for greater and culturally sovereignty challenged by • Driven by practical immigration ‘cutting red tape’ argument • Culturally challenged by immigration BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 21
#3 Start talking values (not just value) But it does seem that there are some really big values which unite some previously divergent groups Eric Kaufmanm for the Fabian Society BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 22
#3 Start talking values (not just value) And for the first time, the Trump and EU votes have given these heterogeneous groups clear tribes to belong to “The Trump rally was the most fun I have had in years. Trump would say. ‘What am I going to build?’ and we would say ‘A wall!’… It was fun to lighten up, to cheer along with everyone else, just like back in high school, when we would cheer that our teams were definitely going to win, even when they were bad” And an opportunity to define themselves against what they aren’t… Whether against the liberal, metropolitan elites of New York or Washington, London or Leeds or the ‘left behind’ of Sunderland or Scranton BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 23
#3 Start talking values (not just value) The more we talk about these divides as if they’re monolithic, the more likely they are to become totemic and embedded This may present some ‘quick win’ But it also presents a risk… opportunities That by continually describing these divides we are only serving to “We will defend the Britain we love… reinforce them and make them ‘real’ - and overlook the real complexities (and of course we’ll oppose the expansion of Heathrow too)” BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 24
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 25
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism A lot of people are talking about the ‘echo chamber’ “The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” Francis Bacon, 1620 + = Confirmation Super Online Selection Bias Selectivism BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 26
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism The “filter bubble” works in (at least) two ways Hard-Wired Selection Social Selection • Social networking as • Personalised search & news source recommendation algorithms • Recommendations from • Targeted advertising & friends messaging • Network building based • Timeline editing on preference-proximity BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 27
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism 3x 10% Less likely to Less exposure see liberal to conservative content news sources Gentzkow & Shapiro: 2011
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