PRESIDENT AND CEO THE ESTÉE LAUDER COMPANIES
FABRIZIO FREDA
SEPTEMBER 8, 2016
LEADING
GROWTH
IN PRESTIGE
BEAUTY
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CFO THE ESTÉE LAUDER COMPANIES
TRACEY T. TRAVIS
LEADING GROWTH IN PRESTIGE BEAUTY FABRIZIO FREDA PRESIDENT AND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
LEADING GROWTH IN PRESTIGE BEAUTY FABRIZIO FREDA PRESIDENT AND CEO THE ESTE LAUDER COMPANIES TRACEY T. TRAVIS EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CFO THE ESTE LAUDER COMPANIES SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION THE FORWARD-LOOKING
PRESIDENT AND CEO THE ESTÉE LAUDER COMPANIES
FABRIZIO FREDA
SEPTEMBER 8, 2016
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CFO THE ESTÉE LAUDER COMPANIES
TRACEY T. TRAVIS
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION, INCLUDING THOSE CONTAINING WORDS LIKE “EXPECT,” “PLANS,” “MAY,” “COULD,” “ANTICIPATE,” “ESTIMATE,” “PROJECTED,” “FORECASTED,” THOSE IN MR. FREDA’S AND MS. TRAVIS’S REMARKS AND THOSE IN THE “NEAR AND LONGER-TERM GOALS” SLIDE INVOLVE RISKS AND
(1) INCREASED COMPETITIVE ACTIVITY FROM COMPANIES IN THE SKIN CARE, MAKEUP, FRAGRANCE AND HAIR CARE BUSINESSES; (2) THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE AND MARKET NEW PRODUCTS ON WHICH FUTURE OPERATING RESULTS MAY DEPEND AND TO SUCCESSFULLY ADDRESS CHALLENGES IN THE COMPANY’S BUSINESS; (3) CONSOLIDATIONS, RESTRUCTURINGS, BANKRUPTCIES AND REORGANIZATIONS IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY, AND OTHER FACTORS CAUSING A DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORES THAT SELL THE COMPANY’S PRODUCTS, AN INCREASE IN THE OWNERSHIP CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY, OWNERSHIP OF RETAILERS BY THE COMPANY’S COMPETITORS OR OWNERSHIP OF COMPETITORS BY THE COMPANY’S CUSTOMERS THAT ARE RETAILERS AND OUR INABILITY TO COLLECT RECEIVABLES; (4) DESTOCKING AND TIGHTER WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT BY RETAILERS; (5) THE SUCCESS, OR CHANGES IN TIMING OR SCOPE, OF NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES AND THE SUCCESS, OR CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR THE SCOPE, OF ADVERTISING, SAMPLING AND MERCHANDISING PROGRAMS; (6) SHIFTS IN THE PREFERENCES OF CONSUMERS AS TO WHERE AND HOW THEY SHOP FOR THE TYPES OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES THE COMPANY SELLS; (7) SOCIAL, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RISKS TO THE COMPANY’S FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING, DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL OPERATIONS, INCLUDING CHANGES IN FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND TRADE POLICIES AND REGULATIONS OF THE HOST COUNTRIES AND OF THE UNITED STATES; (8) CHANGES IN THE LAWS, REGULATIONS AND POLICIES (INCLUDING THE INTERPRETATIONS AND ENFORCEMENT THEREOF) THAT AFFECT, OR WILL AFFECT, THE COMPANY’S BUSINESS, INCLUDING THOSE RELATING TO ITS PRODUCTS OR DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS, CHANGES IN ACCOUNTING STANDARDS, TAX LAWS AND REGULATIONS, ENVIRONMENTAL OR CLIMATE CHANGE LAWS, REGULATIONS OR ACCORDS, TRADE RULES AND CUSTOMS REGULATIONS, AND THE OUTCOME AND EXPENSE OF LEGAL OR REGULATORY PROCEEDINGS, AND ANY ACTION THE COMPANY MAY TAKE AS A RESULT; (9) FOREIGN CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS AFFECTING THE COMPANY’S RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND THE VALUE OF ITS FOREIGN ASSETS, THE RELATIVE PRICES AT WHICH THE COMPANY AND ITS FOREIGN COMPETITORS SELL PRODUCTS IN THE SAME MARKETS AND THE COMPANY’S OPERATING AND MANUFACTURING COSTS OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES; (10) CHANGES IN GLOBAL OR LOCAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THOSE DUE TO THE VOLATILITY IN THE GLOBAL CREDIT AND EQUITY MARKETS, NATURAL OR MAN-MADE DISASTERS, REAL OR PERCEIVED EPIDEMICS, OR ENERGY COSTS, THAT COULD AFFECT CONSUMER PURCHASING, THE WILLINGNESS OR ABILITY OF CONSUMERS TO TRAVEL AND/OR PURCHASE THE COMPANY’S PRODUCTS WHILE TRAVELING, THE FINANCIAL STRENGTH OF THE COMPANY’S CUSTOMERS, SUPPLIERS OR OTHER CONTRACT COUNTERPARTIES, THE COMPANY’S OPERATIONS, THE COST AND AVAILABILITY OF CAPITAL WHICH THE COMPANY MAY NEED FOR NEW EQUIPMENT, FACILITIES OR ACQUISITIONS, THE RETURNS THAT THE COMPANY IS ABLE TO GENERATE ON ITS PENSION ASSETS AND THE RESULTING IMPACT ON ITS FUNDING OBLIGATIONS, THE COST AND AVAILABILITY OF RAW MATERIALS AND THE ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE COMPANY’S CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES; (11) SHIPMENT DELAYS, COMMODITY PRICING, DEPLETION OF INVENTORY AND INCREASED PRODUCTION COSTS RESULTING FROM DISRUPTIONS OF OPERATIONS AT ANY OF THE FACILITIES THAT MANUFACTURE NEARLY ALL OF THE COMPANY’S SUPPLY OF A PARTICULAR TYPE OF PRODUCT (I.E., FOCUS FACTORIES) OR AT THE COMPANY’S DISTRIBUTION OR INVENTORY CENTERS, INCLUDING DISRUPTIONS THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INITIATIVES OR BY RESTRUCTURINGS; (12) REAL ESTATE RATES AND AVAILABILITY, WHICH MAY AFFECT THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO INCREASE OR MAINTAIN THE NUMBER OF RETAIL LOCATIONS AT WHICH THE COMPANY SELLS ITS PRODUCTS AND THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANY’S OTHER FACILITIES; (13) CHANGES IN PRODUCT MIX TO PRODUCTS WHICH ARE LESS PROFITABLE; (14) THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO ACQUIRE, DEVELOP OR IMPLEMENT NEW INFORMATION AND DISTRIBUTION TECHNOLOGIES AND INITIATIVES ON A TIMELY BASIS AND WITHIN THE COMPANY’S COST ESTIMATES AND THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS OPERATIONS OF SUCH SYSTEMS AND THE SECURITY OF DATA AND OTHER INFORMATION THAT MAY BE STORED IN SUCH SYSTEMS OR OTHER SYSTEMS OR MEDIA; (15) THE COMPANY’S ABILITY TO CAPITALIZE ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVED EFFICIENCY, SUCH AS PUBLICLY-ANNOUNCED STRATEGIES AND RESTRUCTURING AND COST- SAVINGS INITIATIVES, AND TO INTEGRATE ACQUIRED BUSINESSES AND REALIZE VALUE THEREFROM; (16) CONSEQUENCES ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOCAL OR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS AROUND THE WORLD, AS WELL AS FROM ANY TERRORIST ACTION, RETALIATION AND THE THREAT OF FURTHER ACTION OR RETALIATION; (17) THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF ACQUISITIONS, INVESTMENTS AND DIVESTITURES; AND (18) ADDITIONAL FACTORS AS DESCRIBED IN THE COMPANY’S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 10-K FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2016. THE COMPANY ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY TO UPDATE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS MADE HEREIN OR OTHERWISE.
THESE MATERIALS INCLUDE SOME NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES RELATING TO: CONSTANT CURRENCY; CHARGES ASSOCIATED WITH RESTRUCTURING ACTIVITIES; ACCELERATED ORDERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANY’S SMI ROLLOUT; THE VENEZUELA REMEASUREMENT CHARGES; AND INTEREST EXPENSE ON DEBT EXTINGUISHMENT. WE USE SUCH MEASURES, AMONG OTHER FINANCIAL MEASURES, TO EVALUATE OUR OPERATING PERFORMANCE, WHICH REPRESENT THE MANNER IN WHICH WE CONDUCT AND VIEW OUR BUSINESS. MANAGEMENT BELIEVES THAT EXCLUDING CERTAIN ITEMS THAT ARE NOT COMPARABLE FROM PERIOD TO PERIOD HELPS INVESTORS AND OTHERS COMPARE OPERATING PERFORMANCE BETWEEN TWO
RESULTS, THEY ARE NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE, OR ACT AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR, ANY PRESENTATION INCLUDED IN THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PREPARED IN CONFORMITY WITH U.S. GAAP. INFORMATION ABOUT GAAP AND NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES, INCLUDING RECONCILIATION INFORMATION, IS INCLUDED ON THE INVESTOR AREA OF THE COMPANY’S WEBSITE, WWW.ELCOMPANIES.COM, UNDER THE HEADING “GAAP RECONCILIATION.”
GLOBAL LEADER IN PRESTIGE BEAUTY $11 BILLION IN SALES 25+ BRANDS 150 COUNTRIES AND TERRITORIES MORE THAN 10 PRESTIGE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS 46,000 EMPLOYEES WORLDWIDE
WHO
BEAUTY DATA: ELC ESTIMATES, EUROMONITOR 2015 FOR SKIN CARE, MAKEUP AND FRAGRANCES. HPC: AVERAGE OF PAST FIVE YEARS ORGANIC SALES GROWTH FOR SELECT CONSUMER GOODS COMPANIES.
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
PRESTIGE BEAUTY MASS & DIRECT BEAUTY HPC
5-Year CAGR
GLOBAL GROWTH ESTIMATES CAGR 2010 - 2015
PRESTIGE BEAUTY IS A
PRESTIGE BEAUTY IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING CATEGORIES ELC IS SOLELY FOCUSED ON PRESTIGE BEAUTY WE LEVERAGE OUR POWERFUL BRAND PORTFOLIO TO PURSUE HIGH GROWTH AREAS
ELC HAS REINFORCED
SHARE OF GLOBAL PRESTIGE BEAUTY 13.5% 2010 14.5% 2015
ELC ESTIMATES AND EUROMONITOR 2015 FOR PRESTIGE SKIN CARE, MAKEUP AND FRAGRANCES; EXCLUDES TRAVEL RETAIL.
13% 14% 12%
SALES +7% IN CONSTANT CURRENCY; ABOVE INDUSTRY COST SAVINGS THROUGH RESTRUCTURING AND IMPROVED FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE OPERATING MARGIN +250 BPS DOUBLE-DIGIT EPS GROWTH IN CONSTANT CURRENCY MARKET CAP +$13 BILLION TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN +84%, ABOVE S&P 500 AND ~2X PEER GROUP AVERAGE
WE HAVE DELIVERED
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Estée Lauder Prestige Beauty Mass & Direct Beauty HPC
5 YEAR GLOBAL SALES GROWTH
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estée Lauder S&P 500 Peer Avg
5 YEAR TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
+84% +77% +40%
POWERFUL BRAND PORTFOLIO UNRIVALED CREATIVITY, SERVICE AND INNOVATION BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS MULTIPLE ENGINES OF GROWTH CULTURE OF ANTICIPATING AND EMBRACING CHANGE AGILITY IN INVESTMENT ALLOCATION
RESULTS DRIVEN BY OUR
THE POWER OF
PROGRESSIVE CLASSIC PREMIUM ENTRY PRICE POINT
WE ARE
FIT BRANDS TO BEST OPPORTUNITIES ACQUIRE NEW BRANDS STRATEGICALLY
STRENGTH BY
$4,446 $4,703 $1,487 $554 $3,719 $3,371 $1,236 $432 FY2016 FY2011 SKIN CARE CAGR +3.6% MAKEUP CAGR +6.9% FRAGRANCE CAGR +3.8% HAIR CARE CAGR +5.1%
($ MILLIONS)
ALL CATEGORIES ARE GROWING MAKEUP STRONG IN ALL REGIONS INNOVATION SUPPORTS GROWTH
WE ARE THE
EUROMONITOR 2015 GLOBAL PRESTIGE COLOR COSMETICS
27.7% 13.0% 10.1% 8.7% 5.0% ELC L’OREAL SHISEIDO LVMH KAO
CATEGORY GROWTH SUPPORTED BY
SUPERIOR QUALITY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION PATENT PORTFOLIO +40%
STRENGTH BY
ALL REGIONS AND VIRTUALLY ALL MARKETS ARE GROWING EMERGING MARKETS EXCL. CHINA +25% U.K. +DOUBLE-DIGITS FOR 3 YEARS
$1,761 $3,258 $3,796 $2,173 $4,381 $4,710 FY2016 FY2011 AMERICAS CAGR 4.4% EMEA CAGR 6.1% ASIA/PACIFIC CAGR 4.3%
($ MILLIONS)
STRENGTH ACROSS
46% 12% 11% 8% 6% 5% 12% FY2016 Other* Perfumeries Brand.com Specialty-Multi Freestanding Retail Stores Travel Retail Department Stores
*OTHER INCLUDES SALONS, SPAS, MILITARY AND PHARMACIES
SUSTAINABLE, RELIABLE GROWTH
IDENTIFIES LONG-TERM BEAUTY TRENDS DETERMINES AREAS OF FASTEST GROWTH AND GREATEST OPPORTUNITIES TO FOCUS ON ALLOCATES RESOURCES IN AN AGILE WAY “KEEPS OUR BOAT IN THE WIND.”
CAPTURING GROWTH
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
AGELESS, MILLENNIAL, GEN Z
OUR LONG-TERM STRATEGY
INCREASING OUR REACH TO TARGET CONSUMERS BY CHANNEL AND GEOGRAPHY ENHANCING CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT WITH INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
OPTIMIZING DISTRIBUTION TO
PER DOOR
20 40 60 80 100 Top Brands Smashbox Tom Ford MAC La Mer Jo Malone
INDEXED DISTRIBUTION
ELC HAS FURTHER OPPORTUNITY
DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN EXISTING SITES E/M-COMMERCE SITES IN ~ 30 COUNTRIES VERSUS MORE THAN 150 WITH BRICK AND MORTAR DISTRIBUTION OPPORTUNITY TO ADD BRANDS TO EXISTING MARKETS & EXPAND INTO NEW MARKETS
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Estee Lauder Clinique MAC Bobbi Brown Jo Malone Smashbox
ONLINE VS TOTAL MARKETS
ONLINE MARKETS
ELC ACCELERATING
GROWING DOUBLE-DIGITS IN CHANNEL APPEALING, EXPERIENTIAL RETAILING WIN WITH BRAND PORTFOLIO, SPECIALIZED PRODUCT ASSORTMENT, INNOVATIVE MERCHANDISING, SAMPLING OPPORTUNITY TO ADD BRANDS TO EXISTING RETAIL & GROW WITH RETAILER EXPANSION
FAST GROWTH BRANDS DRIVE
GROWING DOUBLE-DIGITS IN ~1,260 COMPANY- OPERATED STORES GLOBALLY ENTER MARKETS WHERE PRESTIGE DISTRIBUTION IS UNDERDEVELOPED MARGIN ACCRETIVE BY YEAR 3 OMNICHANNEL CAPABILITIES NEW STORE FORMATS / LOWER COSTS
50 100 150 200 250 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
ANNUAL STORE INCREASE
MAC Jo Malone Bobbi Brown Acquisitions Other
BROADENING CONSUMER REACH
EQUITY DRIVER FOR THE BRANDS INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC RISING INCREASE CONVERSION EXPANDING BRANDS WITHIN CURRENT DISTRIBUTION AND IN NEW AIRPORTS NEWLY ACQUIRED BRANDS ADD INCREMENTAL OPPORTUNITY
500 1000 1500 2000 Estee Lauder Clinique Tom Ford La Mer MAC Origins Smashbox Bobbi Brown Jo Malone GlamGlow Aveda Darphin Le Labo Frederic Malle Kilian
TRAVEL RETAIL LOCATIONS
OPPORTUNITIES
INTERNATIONAL AND HIGH-END DEPARTMENT STORES ARE GROWING RETAILER.COM IS GROWING ALLOCATING RESOURCES TO AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY
OPPORTUNITIES
HIGH-QUALITY, INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS NEW EXPERIENCES AND SERVICES
ARTISANAL AND EXPERIENTIAL
PORTFOLIO OF
OUR STRATEGY IS SUPPORTED BY INCREASING
COMPLETED MODERNIZATION OF KEY SYSTEMS CONTINUING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT LEADING BEAUTY FORWARD INITIATIVE COST LEVERAGE / SAVINGS
OUR STRATEGY IS SUPPORTED BY INVESTMENT IN
ELC IS WELL-POSITIONED
CONSISTENTLY GROWN MID-SINGLE DIGITS
GLOBAL PRESTIGE BEAUTY OVER 5 YEARS
FASTER THAN PRESTIGE BEAUTY
ADD ANOTHER POINT OF GROWTH OVER THREE YEARS
CHANNEL OPPORTUNITY
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Estée Lauder Prestige Beauty Mass & Direct Beauty HPC
ELC 5 YEARS ENDED 6/30/16 BEAUTY DATA: ELC ESTIMATES, EUROMONITOR 2015 FOR SKIN CARE, MAKEUP AND FRAGRANCES. HPC: AVERAGE OF PAST FIVE YEARS ORGANIC SALES GROWTH FOR SELECT EUROPEAN AND US BASED CONSUMER GOODS COMPANIES.
5 YEAR GLOBAL SALES GROWTH
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 FY2016 OTHER DEMO PROMO/ COLLATERAL A&P EFFECTIVENESS INDIRECT PROCUREMENT SUPPLY CHAIN
$
ORGANIC GROWTH CURRENCY IMPACT ACQUISITIONS
COST SAVINGS INITIATIVES CURRENCY TRANSLATION EXPENSE LEVERAGE INVESTMENTS / ACQUISITIONS EFFICIENCY / EFFECTIVENESS RETAIL STORE ACCELERATION PRODUCT MIX
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 14.2% 15.2% 16.1% 15.9% 15.5% +110 BPS +90 BPS +50 BPS +20 BPS
BPS
BPS
BPS
BPS
BPS
NOTE: ALL FIGURES EXCLUDE CHARGES AND SMI SALES SHIFTS
$2.27 $2.64 $2.95 $3.05 $3.20 $3.38 to $3.44
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
GROWTH
CURRENCY
AND SHARE REPURCHASES
CAN CONTINUE
NOTE: EXCLUDES CHARGES AND SMI SALES SHIFTS
REPORTED 16% 12% 3% 5% 6-8% CONSTANT CURRENCY 17% 12% 12% 13% 8-10%
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 OPERATING CASH FLOW $1,127 $1,226 $1,535 $1,943 $1,789 CAPEX 421 461 510 473 525 FREE CASH FLOW $706 $765 $1,025 $1,470 $1,263 DIVIDENDS 204 419 302 350 423 SHARE REPURCHASES 593 388 667 983 890 TOTAL $797 $807 $969 $1,333 $1,313 % OF FREE CASH FLOW 113% 105% 95% 91% 104%
NOTE: FY2014 AND FY2015 OPERATING CASH FLOW INCLUDES THE IMPACT OF APPROXIMATELY $173 MILLION RELATED TO THE SMI SALES SHIFTS.
$ MILLIONS
Ending Cash 2011 Operating Cash Flow Debt Stock Based Comp/Other Dividends / Buybacks Capital Expenditures Acquisitions Ending Cash & Investments 2016
7,620 1,014 1,253 580 (5,218) (2,390) (368) 2,491 $ MILLIONS
FY2017 FY2017 - FY2019 NET SALES GROWTH +6% TO +7% NET SALES GROWTH IN CONSTANT CURRENCY +6% TO +7% +6% TO +8% OPERATING MARGIN FLEXIBILITY +110 BPS TO +150 BPS DILUTED EPS $3.38 TO $3.44 EPS GROWTH IN CONSTANT CURRENCY +8% TO +10% +DOUBLE-DIGITS INVENTORY DAYS TO SELL IMPROVEMENT ~150 DAYS
NOTE: EXCLUDES RESTRUCTURING AND OTHER CHARGES.
FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E AUGUST 2014 GUIDANCE 17.5% FY2015 FX AND ACQUISITION IMPACTS (0.7) ADJUSTED 16.8% AUGUST 2015 GUIDANCE 16.8% - 17.2% FY2016 FX AND ACQUISITION IMPACTS (0.6) ADJUSTED 16.2% - 16.6% AUGUST 2016 GUIDANCE 16.6% - 17.0%
NOTE: EXCLUDES RESTRUCTURING AND OTHER CHARGES.
REDUCE COSTS DESIGN FOR LEVERAGE INVEST IN BRANDS AND CAPABILITIES
BENEFITS OF $200 TO $300M BEFORE TAX
PRIORITY INVESTMENTS
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, S&P 06/30/16. PEER GROUP INCLUDES P&G, AVON, BEIERSDORF, LVMH, L’OREAL AND SHISEIDO.
4.0% 6.4%
0.0% 10.0%
ONE YEAR
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Estée Lauder S&P 500 Peer Avg
FIVE YEAR
+84% +77% +40%
ESTÉE LAUDER S&P 500 PEER AVERAGE