Labor Market Information Office Each state produces employment and - - PDF document

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Employment Trends and Future Needs Minnesota Service Cooperative Conference

July 12th, 2018

Luke Greiner

Regional Labor Market Analyst Luke.greiner@state.mn.us Department of Employment and Economic Development Labor Market Information Office http://mn.gov/deed/data/

Labor Market Information Office

• Each state produces

employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics

• LMI includes employment

statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more

• LMI is the foundation for

informed, market-responsive planning

7/13/2018 2 https://mn.gov/deed/data/regional-lmi/

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A few light reads

• What to Know Before You Owe

– https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /september-2016/what-to-know.jsp

• State of the State with educational requirements

by region

– https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /june-2017/

• Factors that influence post-secondary education

success

– https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /march-2018/

Local Look Blog

https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/central/central-blog.jsp

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Question!

• Did Minnesota produce more or less HS graduates in 2017

compared to 2007? –Slightly fewer at 58,379 in 2017 and 59,812 in 2007. (-2.4%)

• Does Minnesota have more or less jobs in 2017 than in 2007?

–We have almost 165K more jobs in 2017! (+6%)

The Past

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• Welcome to 8 years of recovery

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41,397 122,929 213,643 108,623 2.1 2.9 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

• 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Jobseekers Per Vacancy Number of Unemployed & Vacancies Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, LAUS program

Jobseekers Per Vacancy, 2007-2017

Minnesota Vacancies Minnesota Unemployed Jobseekers per Vacancy

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• Projected Labor Force Growth from 2020-2030 is an annual average gain of 7,400 workers

13

More Recently

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And you thought I was done.

• What percentage of HS graduates enroll in higher education

after graduation?

70%

• What is the most demanded occupation in Minnesota?

Retail salespersons

• What share of full-time job openings in Minnesota require a

bachelors degree or higher? 23%, 4th Qtr. 2017 (19% bachelors, 4% advanced degree)

2016-2017 Employment Change in Minnesota

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4th Qtr. Job Vacancies by Industry

• 68% of openings required a HS diploma or less
• 16% required a BS or more ( less than 1-in-6)
• Even 58% of FT openings don’t require any formal education beyond HS
• Still less than a quarter of FT openings require a 4-year degree or more

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Thinking Higher

• Higher Education is extremely important for

some jobs (think nurse, doctor, accountant, engineer)

• For other jobs higher education is not

necessary (think medical assistant, truck driver, carpenter, or customer service representative)

• Decisions about higher education should be

focused on the end goal (career).

What do the students think?

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The Demand-side of Education (Economy)

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Some Poor Employment Outcomes Suggest Surplus

• f Graduates or Inefficient Allocation

Naics Title Median Share Employed Naics Title Median Share Employed Health Care $17.71 23.0% Health Care $24.28 17.4% Other Services, Ex. Public Admin $14.17 10.8% Professional and Technical Services $23.52 10.2% Manufacturing $19.13 10.0% Elementary and Secondary Schools $23.24 8.5% Retail Trade $13.14 9.6% Manufacturing $24.93 6.6% Construction $23.37 8.2% Retail Trade $14.63 6.5% Food Services and Drinking Places $12.50 5.2% Finance and Insurance $22.72 6.4% Wholesale Trade $18.27 3.8% Public Administration $20.54 4.8% Health Care $21.34 31.4% Elementary and Secondary Schools $38.25 25.2% Retail Trade $12.17 9.7% Health Care $35.14 17.7% Manufacturing $19.36 6.5% Education except Elem. and Secondary Sc $25.53 10.8% Food Services and Drinking Places $13.49 5.8% Professional and Technical Services $34.18 8.7% Professional and Technical Services $17.28 5.5% Public Administration $26.82 6.2% Public Administration $19.61 4.7% Manufacturing $43.45 5.0% Social Assistance $12.90 4.1% Finance and Insurance $38.00 4.8% Top 7 Employing Industries of Employment 2- years After Graduation - Graduates of 2013-2014 Certificates Associate's Bachelor's Graduate Source: DEED, GEO

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What about the kids?

• Remember how many HS graduates enroll in college?

– Guess what share of Minnesota graduates go directly into the workforce after completing high school.

• 23% in 2016.
• What are we doing for these kids? Are they prepared to

meet employers expectations?

Lets take a look!

Minnesota Class of 2016

• Are these kids successful?

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Labor force stats by age in Minnesota

2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates Age In Labor Force Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate Total, 16+

3,013,834 69.9% 4.8%

16 to 19 years

149,981 52.3% 14.2%

20 to 24 years

302,880 83.5% 8.1%

25 to 44 years

1,248,471 88.2% 4.4%

45 to 54 years

659,633 87.2% 3.4%

55 to 64 years

513,200 72.3% 3.6%

65 to 74 years

116,980 27.1% 3.0%

75 years+

20,865 6.0% 2.7%

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Deep Stuff

I know your ready to leave, but…

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4.1% 63.7% 4.9% 4.8% 19.0% 3.5% 115,630 1,780,560 135,780 133,710 531,350 98,740

State of Minnesota Share of Jobs by Educational Requirements, 2017

No Formal Educational Requirement High School Vocational Training Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree

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Aligning Education with Future Needs?

Educational Requirement Level Number Required by 2014 Employment 2014 Share Number Required by 2024 Employment 2024 Share Employment Growth by Educational Requirement High School or Less 1,948,401 65.7% 2,015,478 65.1% 3.4% Vocational Cert. 145,951 4.9% 158,160 5.1% 8.4% Associate’s 129,762 4.4% 141,142 4.6% 8.8% Bachelor's 533,637 18.0% 558,750 18.1% 4.7% Graduate 95,904 3.2% 103,801 3.4% 8.2% Not Classified 110,903 3.7% 116,325 3.8% 4.9% Total 2,964,558 3,093,656 4.4%

Is Our Workforce ‘Educated’ Enough?

Educational level In labor force (2015; 16-64 years old) 2024 Job Requirements Surplus/ Shortage(-) Not in labor force (2015; 16-64 years old) HS or less 851,393 2,015,478

• 1,164,085

343,016 Vocational 670,567 158,160 512,407 145,428 Associate’s 346,716 141,142 205,574 49,191 Bachelor's 701,514 558,750 142,764 87,656 Graduate 326,489 103,801 222,688 33,920 Total 2,896,679 3,093,656

• 196,977

659,211

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Check Out Graduate Employment Outcomes by College and Major

mn.gov/deed/geo

Not Destitute, No Degree

• Transportation Inspectors, $105,358
• Power Distributors and Dispatchers, $93,504
• Elevator Installers and Repairers, $90,794
• Electrical Power-line installers, $83,437
• Hoist and Winch Operators, $83,737
• Real Estate Brokers, $71,898
• Loan Officers, $71,523
• Construction Trade Supervisor, $72,631
• Cost Estimators, $62,837

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Question?

Local Look Regional Blog  Monthly blog covering regional economic trends  Workforce insights. Occupations In Demand, Unemployment Rates Minnesota Economic TRENDS  Quarterly magazine on economic topics  Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line Minnesota Employment REVIEW  Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends  Includes Minnesota business development  Available exclusively on-line

http://mn.gov/deed/review http://mn.gov/deed/trends

https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/central/central-blog.jsp https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/southwest/southwest-blog.jsp

Let me know how I can help!

Luke Greiner Regional Labor Market Analyst Central and Southwest Minnesota

Labor Market Information Office Phone: (320) 308-5378 Luke.greiner@state.mn.us

THANK YOU!