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Klima-Exzellenz in Hamburg Melting glaciers cause societal changes in the Andes

Carla Bockermann Seminar Climate & Society

• 11. January 2012

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Overview

1 Region 2 People and lifestyles 3 Tropical glaciers in the Andes 4 Conflict potential 5 General issues 6 Conflict constellations: water-food nexus 7 Adaptation and responses 8 Summary 9 Discussion

1 Region : Andean highlands

• Worlds longest continental mountain range (7000 km),
• Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,

Argentina

• Avg height 4000 m, max 6960 m (Mt. Aconcagua)
• Great climate variation (location, altitude, proximity to

the sea)

• southern Andes rainy and cool, central Andes dry,

northern Andes rainy and warm

• 40 million people

Altitudinal belts of the tropical Andes

(Source: Diercke International Atlas 2010, adapted)

Snow, ice, debris Small shrubs, herbs Tropical cloud forest Tropical mountain forest Tropical rainforest

T < 10°C

Grazing in the tierra helada and agriculture at 400m

2 People and lifestyles

• Vertical lifestyles, subsistance farming & herding
• Large farming populations, great diversity of crops in

the highlands

• greatest crop production in valleys and lowlands
• Bolivia: 1/3 of population are farmers, 15% GDP
• Peru: agriculture in dry regions is runoff dependent; fresh water is poorly distributed

(> 98% on eastern slope)

• Altoplano (Peru/Bolivia): 700 communities; 65% of population lives in poverty; very

high biodiversity; small scale production; seed banks

• Páramo: intensive cattle grazing, plantation cultivation
• > severe alteration of hydrological regime

3 Tropical glacier in the Andes

70 % of global tropical glaciers in the Andes 2,940 km2 (1970) declined to 2,493 km2 (2002)

Tropical glaciers – ecosystem services

• store precipitation/snow and

release as water

• impact runoff levels & regional

water budget

• drinikng water (supply 30-40% in

Quito, La Paz & El Alto)

• irrigation
• hydroelectricity (50% in Ecuador,

80% in Perú, 82% in Colombia)

• ecosystem integraty

Glacier retreat in the Peruvian Andes

Thompson et al. 2006

average warming of 0.09–0.15 °C decade-1

4 Conflict potential

Water runoffs with and without glacier contribution and water demand

Source: Vuille 2006

World map of environmental conflicts (1980–2005): Causes and intensity

People live close to the land Agricultural cycle is marked by religious rituals People dont understand why snow melts, rain comes out of seasons, natural signs are no longer reliabe Microclimates change Changing climate threatens harvest and way of life Crop variety is the people's only insurance against a bad harvest and for resilience As temperatures rise, some high altitude varieties may disappear Glaciers vanish (glacial retreat) -> boggy, high altitude pastures may dry up increasing herders' competition Changing climate may result in forced migration to cities In planning for adaptation to climate change policy makers must listen to farmers needs and fears Potential to loose livelyhoods and traditional way of life

Climate Change prompts cultural shift in Andes

5 Issues

• Impacts on subsistence agriculture and rural livelihoods
• Changes in local hydrology and ecology

reduce biodiversity and productivity of highland agricultural lands changes in water flows

• Upward permafrost shift

ecosystems change; biodiversity loss; land use competition

• Forced rural migration increases

El Alto (Bolivia) 20,000 to 900,000 in 30 years

6 Conflict constellations: water-food nexus

1 Small farmers vs. Large landowners 2 Communities vs. Oil industry 3 Mountain communities vs. Government 4 Llama herders (mountains) vs. Big agrobusinesses (coast) 5 Farmers vs. Mining industry

7 Adaptation and responses

Small-scale

• storage tanks (pilot projects in Bolivia, World Bank funding)
• dams and reservoirs
• rebuild municipal water systems
• efficient drip-irrigation technology (Oxfam project)
• Fog catchers (community-level)

Technology

• Improving crop yield by – Biotechnology or – large native variety pool
• Facilitating farmer innovation, building local institutions,

and promoting different types of participation

Regional / national level

Policies/Programs

• National Glacier Policy (Chile): inventories of

cryospheric water resources & protection against the impacts of mining on glaciers

• National Agua para Todos Rural (water for everyone)

program, Peru

• Regional Adaptation to Glacier Retreat project (World

Bank 2008): adaptation measures in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru; glacier monitoring

• Andean Agriculture Project for Altiplano: crop diversity,
• rganic agriculture, UN development goals

8 Summary

• Glacier retreat in the Andes – burden on native communities and on developing

economies who are already struggling

• Highest impact of climate change is likely to be on agriculture (reduced diversity and

resilience)

• Challenges:
• planning, modeling, and development process adequate for the changing

mountain environments

• Climate change is forcing a cultural change
• Old elites and power regimes still hold up change and colaboration
• Opportunities:
• Community-based sustainable development
• Bodiversity, Plant species variety (seed banks) as future crops

Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten 14.01.2012

Thank you!

9 Discussion

Who has the most potential to have a positive impact on this situation?