Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 Page 1 of 20 Important Notice This presentation is confidential. This presentation is not a prospectus. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sales or


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Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL

5 September 2019

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Important Notice

This presentation is confidential. This presentation is not a prospectus. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sales or solicitation of any offer to buy any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation has been prepared for the purpose of providing certain individuals with business, financial and other information concerning Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Company Limited (“KTIS”) The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, circulate, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon this material. This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation to any recipient of this presentation. Some statements contained herein are forward-looking statements identified by the use of forward- looking terminology such as “may” , “will” , “expect” , “anticipate”, “intend” , “estimate” , “continue”, “plan” or other similar words, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include statements with respect to KTIS’s corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. This presentation is prepared based on the assumptions and beliefs of KTIS’s management in light of the information currently available to KTIS involving risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation is, or shall be relied on as promise or representation of KTIS as to the future.

For more information, contact : IR@ktisgroup.com

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Agenda

  • 9M-2019 Operating Results
  • Sugar & Bio Industry Trends
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9M-2019 Operating Results

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Summary of Operating Results -S1

Total Revenues Total Expenses Net Profit

Unit: Baht million

Net Profit (Loss)

  • Total revenues decreased due to lower revenues from sugar business,

despite slight increases in revenue from bio business and other income

  • Total expenses decreased due to decreases in cost of sales & services,

SG&A and financial costs

  • Net profit was higher than last year

Financial Costs Selling & Admin. Expenses Cost of Sales & Services Income tax expenses and others

13,901 901 10,437 437 294 294 331 331 22 22 14,218 218 10,768 768

5,000 10,000 15,000

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

(631) 1) 19 19

  • 800

200

9M-20

  • 2018

9M-20

  • 2019

Other Income Sales & Services Revenues Income Tax Benefits (Oct.’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

11,964 964 8,110 110 2,634 634 2,341 341 251 251 228 228 70 70 14,849 849 10,749 749

5,000 10,000 15,000

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Sales & Service Revenues Gross Profit & Margin

Summary of Operating Results -S2

Unit: Baht million

GP - Sugar GP - Bio GPM - Sugar GPM - Bio

684 684 955 955 1,253 253 1,371 371 1,937 937 2,327 327

6.7% 14.4 .4% 33.4 .4% 36.2 .2%

0% 20% 40% 1,500

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

73.0% 8.1% 8.3% 6.3% 4.2%

Sugar Paper Pulp Ethanol Electricity Others

9M-2018

63.7% 9.0% 11.6% 10.2% 5.6%

Sugar Paper Pulp Ethanol Electricity Others

9M-2019

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Sugar Revenue

Sugar Revenue

Sugar Sales Volume (‘000 Ton) & Price (Baht)

184 184 137 137 614 614 393 393 797 797 530 530

18,4 ,488 16,9 ,908 10,6 ,684 9,83 839

8,000 13,000 18,000 500 1,000

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

Sugar - Domestic Sugar - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price * International Sales Volume International Selling Price Molasses

121 121 166 166 3,792 792 3,112 112

2,000 3,000 4,000 100 200

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

Molasses Sales Volume (‘000 Ton) & Price (Baht)

Molasses Sales Volume Molasses Selling Price

Note: * white & refined sugar selling price only Source: Office of the Cane and Sugar Board, 31 May 2019

Production 2017/18 2018/19 Thailand Cane 134.9 131.0 MMT Sugar 147.1 145.8 MBg Molasses 5.5 5.9 MMT KTIS Cane 11.6 9.9 MMT Sugar 11.9 10.3 MBg Molasses 0.5 0.5 MMT

3,140 140 2,261 261 6,557 557 3,867 867 457 457 516 516 10,153 153 6,644 644

4,000 8,000 12,000

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

Unit: Baht million

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Pulp Revenue

205 205 236 236 927 927 700 700 1,131 131 935 935

400 800 1,200

9M-20

  • 2018

9M-20

  • 2019

Unit: Baht million

Pulp Revenue

9,352 352 9,988 988 42,199 199 29,964 964 51,551 551 39,952 952

21,8 ,895 23,6 ,619 21,9 ,960 23,3 ,346

20,000 25,000 15,000 30,000 45,000

9M-20

  • 2018

9M-20

  • 2019

Sales Volume (ton) & Selling Price (Baht)

  • Pulp revenue decreased as a result of lower international pulp sales

volume, despite higher average pulp selling price

Pulp - Domestic Pulp - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price International Sales Volume International Selling Price

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Ethanol Revenue

1,159 159 1,215 215

500 1,000 1,500

9M-20

  • 2018

9M-20

  • 2019

48,164 164 54,902 902

24.0 .06 22.1 .12

15 20 25 30 20,000 40,000 60,000

9M-20

  • 2018

9M-20

  • 2019

Unit: Baht million

Ethanol Revenue Sales Volume (‘000 Liter) & Selling Price (Baht)

  • Ethanol revenue increased due to higher sales volume, despite

lower average ethanol selling price

Ethanol - Domestic Ethanol - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price International Sales Volume International Selling Price

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Electricity Revenue

877 877 1,062 062

400 800 1,200

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

Unit: Baht million

Electricity Revenue

288,48 484 342,49 498

3.04 3.10

2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 100,000 200,000 300,000

9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19

Electricity Supplied (MWH) & Selling Price (Baht)

Electricity Supplied Selling Price

  • Revenue from electricity business increased, as a result of both higher

electricity sold and higher average electricity selling price per unit

Electricity Revenue

(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)

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Sugar & Bio Industry Trends

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Positive Factors for Sugar

  • The global balance in 2019/20 will switch from surplus

1.1mil MT in 2018/19 to deficit -5.8mil MT due to global consumption growth and a large fall in Indian production. (If realized, this would be the largest deficit since 2008/09)

  • CS Brazil Production until 1H Aug has been worse than last

crop.

Sugarcane 350mil MT (+0.03%) / Sugar 15.5mil MT (-6.34%) Sugar Mix 35.38% (-0.92%pts) / ATR 130.89kg/cane (-3.92%)

  • Net short position of fund/spec is approaching to latest

record and can do short cover in the next few months.

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Negative Factors for Sugar

  • The record delivery against July No.11 and August No.5
  • contract. Thailand featured unusually heavily in both

expiries, delivering 0.6mil MT of raws and 0.8mil MT of white/refined.

  • The BRL has fallen to BRL4.1/USD from BRL3.72/USD at the

middle of July following larger-than-expected interest rate cuts.

  • Macro uncertainty caused by the US-China trade dispute.
  • The macro uncertainty is also putting pressure WTI oil

Prices, which remain in the USD 50-60/bbl range.

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World Sugar Price – 10 Years

Source: Reuters

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World Sugar Price – 5 Years

Source: Reuters

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Source: LMC

Production Surplus/Deficit (2019-2020)

World Sugar Supply / Demand Balance

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Brazilian Real / USD vs. ICE No.11

Source: Reuters

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BRL and THB / USD (2013-2019)

Source: Investing.com 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 20 25 30 35 40 01-Jan-13 01-Jan-14 01-Jan-15 01-Jan-16 01-Jan-17 01-Jan-18 01-Jan-19 USD_THB USD_BRL

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Eucalyptus Pulp & Bagasse Pulp Price Comparison (2013 – 2019)

450 550 650 750 850

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19

Euc Eucal alyptus ptus ( (CIF CIF) Baga Bagasse ( e (CF CFR) R)

Source: RISI + Company

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Million Liter Per Day (MLPD)

Ethanol Consumption Development

4.35 5 4.26 6 4.32 2 4.44 4 4.27 7 3.85 85 4.04 04 3.96 96 4.11 11 3.89 89 4.15 15 4.04 04 4.12 12 3.98 98 4.09 09 4.18 18 4.43 43 3.61 1 3.67 7 3.73 3 3.85 5 3.77 7 3.91 1 3.83 3 3.85 5 3.84 4 3.83 3 3.73 3 4.03 3 3.35 5 3.48 8 3.44 4 3.65 5 3.50 3.46 6 3.57 7 3.73 3 3.54 4 3.48 8 3.62 2 3.81 1 3.12 2 3.16 6 3.15 5 3.30 3.17 7 3.19 9 3.28 8 3.23 3 3.17 7 3.27 7 3.31 1 3.55 5

2.5

Ja Jan Fe Feb Mar Apr May Ju Jun Ju Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec

2015 2016 2017 2018

May’19 *EtOH cons. = 4.27 MLPD

2019

Note: * Ethanol consumption is calculated from minimum blending ratio

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3.12 3.35 3.61 3.85 4.35 3.16 3.48 3.67 4.04 4.26 3.15 3.44 3.73 3.96 4.32 3.30 3.65 3.85 4.11 4.44 3.17 3.50 3.77 3.87 4.27 3.28 3.57 3.83 4.04 3.23 3.73 3.85 4.12 3.17 3.54 3.84 3.98 3.27 3.48 3.83 4.09 3.31 3.62 3.73 4.18 3.55 3.81 4.03 4.43 3.19 3.46 3.91 4.15 3.24 3.55 3.80 4.07 4.33 Ethanol Consumption (MLPD)