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Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation PCL 5 September 2019 Page 1 of 20 Important Notice This presentation is confidential. This presentation is not a prospectus. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sales or
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Important Notice
This presentation is confidential. This presentation is not a prospectus. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sales or solicitation of any offer to buy any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation has been prepared for the purpose of providing certain individuals with business, financial and other information concerning Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Company Limited (“KTIS”) The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, circulate, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon this material. This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation to any recipient of this presentation. Some statements contained herein are forward-looking statements identified by the use of forward- looking terminology such as “may” , “will” , “expect” , “anticipate”, “intend” , “estimate” , “continue”, “plan” or other similar words, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include statements with respect to KTIS’s corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. This presentation is prepared based on the assumptions and beliefs of KTIS’s management in light of the information currently available to KTIS involving risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation is, or shall be relied on as promise or representation of KTIS as to the future.
For more information, contact : IR@ktisgroup.com
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Agenda
- 9M-2019 Operating Results
- Sugar & Bio Industry Trends
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9M-2019 Operating Results
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Summary of Operating Results -S1
Total Revenues Total Expenses Net Profit
Unit: Baht million
Net Profit (Loss)
- Total revenues decreased due to lower revenues from sugar business,
despite slight increases in revenue from bio business and other income
- Total expenses decreased due to decreases in cost of sales & services,
SG&A and financial costs
- Net profit was higher than last year
Financial Costs Selling & Admin. Expenses Cost of Sales & Services Income tax expenses and others
13,901 901 10,437 437 294 294 331 331 22 22 14,218 218 10,768 768
5,000 10,000 15,000
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
(631) 1) 19 19
- 800
200
9M-20
- 2018
9M-20
- 2019
Other Income Sales & Services Revenues Income Tax Benefits (Oct.’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
11,964 964 8,110 110 2,634 634 2,341 341 251 251 228 228 70 70 14,849 849 10,749 749
5,000 10,000 15,000
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Sales & Service Revenues Gross Profit & Margin
Summary of Operating Results -S2
Unit: Baht million
GP - Sugar GP - Bio GPM - Sugar GPM - Bio
684 684 955 955 1,253 253 1,371 371 1,937 937 2,327 327
6.7% 14.4 .4% 33.4 .4% 36.2 .2%
0% 20% 40% 1,500
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
73.0% 8.1% 8.3% 6.3% 4.2%
Sugar Paper Pulp Ethanol Electricity Others
9M-2018
63.7% 9.0% 11.6% 10.2% 5.6%
Sugar Paper Pulp Ethanol Electricity Others
9M-2019
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Sugar Revenue
Sugar Revenue
Sugar Sales Volume (‘000 Ton) & Price (Baht)
184 184 137 137 614 614 393 393 797 797 530 530
18,4 ,488 16,9 ,908 10,6 ,684 9,83 839
8,000 13,000 18,000 500 1,000
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
Sugar - Domestic Sugar - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price * International Sales Volume International Selling Price Molasses
121 121 166 166 3,792 792 3,112 112
2,000 3,000 4,000 100 200
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
Molasses Sales Volume (‘000 Ton) & Price (Baht)
Molasses Sales Volume Molasses Selling Price
Note: * white & refined sugar selling price only Source: Office of the Cane and Sugar Board, 31 May 2019
Production 2017/18 2018/19 Thailand Cane 134.9 131.0 MMT Sugar 147.1 145.8 MBg Molasses 5.5 5.9 MMT KTIS Cane 11.6 9.9 MMT Sugar 11.9 10.3 MBg Molasses 0.5 0.5 MMT
3,140 140 2,261 261 6,557 557 3,867 867 457 457 516 516 10,153 153 6,644 644
4,000 8,000 12,000
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
Unit: Baht million
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Pulp Revenue
205 205 236 236 927 927 700 700 1,131 131 935 935
400 800 1,200
9M-20
- 2018
9M-20
- 2019
Unit: Baht million
Pulp Revenue
9,352 352 9,988 988 42,199 199 29,964 964 51,551 551 39,952 952
21,8 ,895 23,6 ,619 21,9 ,960 23,3 ,346
20,000 25,000 15,000 30,000 45,000
9M-20
- 2018
9M-20
- 2019
Sales Volume (ton) & Selling Price (Baht)
- Pulp revenue decreased as a result of lower international pulp sales
volume, despite higher average pulp selling price
Pulp - Domestic Pulp - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price International Sales Volume International Selling Price
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Ethanol Revenue
1,159 159 1,215 215
500 1,000 1,500
9M-20
- 2018
9M-20
- 2019
48,164 164 54,902 902
24.0 .06 22.1 .12
15 20 25 30 20,000 40,000 60,000
9M-20
- 2018
9M-20
- 2019
Unit: Baht million
Ethanol Revenue Sales Volume (‘000 Liter) & Selling Price (Baht)
- Ethanol revenue increased due to higher sales volume, despite
lower average ethanol selling price
Ethanol - Domestic Ethanol - International Domestic Sales Volume Domestic Selling Price International Sales Volume International Selling Price
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Electricity Revenue
877 877 1,062 062
400 800 1,200
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
Unit: Baht million
Electricity Revenue
288,48 484 342,49 498
3.04 3.10
2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 100,000 200,000 300,000
9M 9M-20 2018 18 9M 9M-20 2019 19
Electricity Supplied (MWH) & Selling Price (Baht)
Electricity Supplied Selling Price
- Revenue from electricity business increased, as a result of both higher
electricity sold and higher average electricity selling price per unit
Electricity Revenue
(Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19) (Oct’17-Jun.’18) (Oct’18-Jun.’19)
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Sugar & Bio Industry Trends
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Positive Factors for Sugar
- The global balance in 2019/20 will switch from surplus
1.1mil MT in 2018/19 to deficit -5.8mil MT due to global consumption growth and a large fall in Indian production. (If realized, this would be the largest deficit since 2008/09)
- CS Brazil Production until 1H Aug has been worse than last
crop.
Sugarcane 350mil MT (+0.03%) / Sugar 15.5mil MT (-6.34%) Sugar Mix 35.38% (-0.92%pts) / ATR 130.89kg/cane (-3.92%)
- Net short position of fund/spec is approaching to latest
record and can do short cover in the next few months.
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Negative Factors for Sugar
- The record delivery against July No.11 and August No.5
- contract. Thailand featured unusually heavily in both
expiries, delivering 0.6mil MT of raws and 0.8mil MT of white/refined.
- The BRL has fallen to BRL4.1/USD from BRL3.72/USD at the
middle of July following larger-than-expected interest rate cuts.
- Macro uncertainty caused by the US-China trade dispute.
- The macro uncertainty is also putting pressure WTI oil
Prices, which remain in the USD 50-60/bbl range.
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World Sugar Price – 10 Years
Source: Reuters
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World Sugar Price – 5 Years
Source: Reuters
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Source: LMC
Production Surplus/Deficit (2019-2020)
World Sugar Supply / Demand Balance
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Brazilian Real / USD vs. ICE No.11
Source: Reuters
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BRL and THB / USD (2013-2019)
Source: Investing.com 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 20 25 30 35 40 01-Jan-13 01-Jan-14 01-Jan-15 01-Jan-16 01-Jan-17 01-Jan-18 01-Jan-19 USD_THB USD_BRL
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Eucalyptus Pulp & Bagasse Pulp Price Comparison (2013 – 2019)
450 550 650 750 850
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
Euc Eucal alyptus ptus ( (CIF CIF) Baga Bagasse ( e (CF CFR) R)
Source: RISI + Company
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Million Liter Per Day (MLPD)
Ethanol Consumption Development
4.35 5 4.26 6 4.32 2 4.44 4 4.27 7 3.85 85 4.04 04 3.96 96 4.11 11 3.89 89 4.15 15 4.04 04 4.12 12 3.98 98 4.09 09 4.18 18 4.43 43 3.61 1 3.67 7 3.73 3 3.85 5 3.77 7 3.91 1 3.83 3 3.85 5 3.84 4 3.83 3 3.73 3 4.03 3 3.35 5 3.48 8 3.44 4 3.65 5 3.50 3.46 6 3.57 7 3.73 3 3.54 4 3.48 8 3.62 2 3.81 1 3.12 2 3.16 6 3.15 5 3.30 3.17 7 3.19 9 3.28 8 3.23 3 3.17 7 3.27 7 3.31 1 3.55 5
2.5
Ja Jan Fe Feb Mar Apr May Ju Jun Ju Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018
May’19 *EtOH cons. = 4.27 MLPD
2019
Note: * Ethanol consumption is calculated from minimum blending ratio
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3.12 3.35 3.61 3.85 4.35 3.16 3.48 3.67 4.04 4.26 3.15 3.44 3.73 3.96 4.32 3.30 3.65 3.85 4.11 4.44 3.17 3.50 3.77 3.87 4.27 3.28 3.57 3.83 4.04 3.23 3.73 3.85 4.12 3.17 3.54 3.84 3.98 3.27 3.48 3.83 4.09 3.31 3.62 3.73 4.18 3.55 3.81 4.03 4.43 3.19 3.46 3.91 4.15 3.24 3.55 3.80 4.07 4.33 Ethanol Consumption (MLPD)