Kan ansa sas O s Outloo ook Jeremy Hill, Director Is s the e - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Aug 19, 2023 314 likes •491 views

Kan ansa sas O s Outloo ook Jeremy Hill, Director Is s the e KS ec S econ onomy stallin ing? United States Although there are increasing concerns about availability of labor, the market is balanced and continues to grow .

SLIDE 1

Kan ansa sas O s Outloo

Jeremy Hill, Director

SLIDE 2

Is s the e KS ec S econ

nomy stallin

ing?

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

United States – Although there are

increasing concerns about availability of labor, the market is balanced and continues to grow.

Plains region – The difference in growth

can be explained by:

Durable manufacturing (Aerospace)
Government
Kansas – Employment growth has been

impacted by core industries and appears to be stalling.

SLIDE 3

Is s the e KS ec S econ

nomy stallin

ing?

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

United States – Although there are

increasing concerns about availability of labor, the market is balanced and continues to grow.

Plains region – The difference in growth

can be explained by:

Durable manufacturing (Aerospace)
Government
Kansas – Employment growth has been

impacted by core industries and appears to be stalling.

Durable Manufacturing Government *Plains 6.5% 0.1% KS

6.3%
2.1%

*Kansas was removed

Growth from 2009 - 2016

SLIDE 4

Is s the e KS ec S econ

nomy stallin

ing?

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

SLIDE 5

Net migration, not births or deaths, is one

contributing factor to the stalled growth in Kansas.

Current t trends may r reduce f future o

pportunity

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Population KS 2015 2,906,721 Births 38,702 Deaths 25,390 Net migration (12,744) KS 2016 2,907,289

SLIDE 6

Current t trends may r reduce f future o

pportunity

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

6,200

SLIDE 7

Or….is th there sti till room for opti timism?

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Agriculture – income, real estate values, and

credit conditions continued to weigh down this

sector. Growth is not expected, but the sector

is stable.

Oil & Natural Gas – currently flat and waiting

for better market conditions in the long term.

Manufacturing – could continue to slowly

grow or accelerate. Outcomes are dependent

n polices at the national and global level (e.g.

increased protectionism).

Services – this sector is hamstrung by

population growth and limited labor supply and might stall out.

SLIDE 8

(5YR Annual)

Long-term KS manufactu turi ring EM EMP h has declined

SLIDE 9

Gl Glob

bal condition
ns c

could improve e KS outlook

Plains: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Value of the US Dollar – The

decline since January has increased demand for US goods.

SLIDE 10

Strength o

f trading partners can spill o
ver

r to KS

Global – outlook continues to

improve, in particular North America and Asia.

Canada and Mexico were 36%
f Kansas exports, and

accounted for the majority of recent growth.

SLIDE 11

For

ecast - Retail Sa Sales es – Growth th Since ce 2011 2011

Downward pressures from both weak job

growth and slowing population will dampen retail sales.

Kansas City will likely see the most growth

given the stronger market conditions.

SLIDE 12

Foreca cast - Tot

tal E

l EMP e expectatio ions v vary a acr cross th the S State

Kansas – Employment growth is

expected to further slow down, given both labor issues and weaknesses within core sectors.

Metro – The three large metro areas

are expected to see slower growth rates compared to previous years.

Non Metro – The rest of the state, as a

whole, is expected to be stagnant in 2017, as they are waiting on conditions to improve in agriculture,

il, and manufacturing.

0.1 % 1,490 Kansas City 1.6% Topeka 0.8% Wichita 0.4%

SLIDE 13

Retail Trade – out migration, changing

preferences, and negative expectations are all weighing on employment growth.

Transportation & Utilities - all of the growth

is expected on the transportation and warehousing side. Employment within utilities has stalled since 2015.

For

ecast - 2018 e 2018 employment t outl utlook i k is mixed

SLIDE 14

For

ecast - 2018 e 2018 employment t outl utlook k is is m mix ixed

SLIDE 15

Res espondents ts a are op

ptim

timis istic a ic about K t KC, a , and n neg egativ ive to

mixed f

for th the r res est o t of th the s e state.

SLIDE 16

Kan ansa sas O s Outloo

Is s the e KS ec S econ

ing?

Is s the e KS ec S econ

ing?

Is s the e KS ec S econ

ing?

Current t trends may r reduce f future o

Current t trends may r reduce f future o

Or….is th there sti till room for opti timism?

Long-term KS manufactu turi ring EM EMP h has declined

Gl Glob

could improve e KS outlook

Strength o

r to KS

For

ecast - Retail Sa Sales es – Growth th Since ce 2011 2011

Foreca cast - Tot

l EMP e expectatio ions v vary a acr cross th the S State

For

ecast - 2018 e 2018 employment t outl utlook i k is mixed

For

ecast - 2018 e 2018 employment t outl utlook k is is m mix ixed

Res espondents ts a are op

timis istic a ic about K t KC, a , and n neg egativ ive to

for th the r res est o t of th the s e state.

Op Optimism sm abo abounds! s!