FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
JPMorgan US Smaller Companies Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting
29 April 2015
Fiona Harris, Executive Director, Client Portfolio Manager
JPMorgan US Smaller Companies Investment Trust plc Annual General - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
JPMorgan US Smaller Companies Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 29 April 2015 Fiona Harris , Executive Director, Client Portfolio Manager FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION A tight
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS/QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
Fiona Harris, Executive Director, Client Portfolio Manager
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Daniel Percella, Executive Director Co-Portfolio Manager / Research Analyst Industry Exp: 13 years JPM Exp: 7 years Don San Jose, Managing Director Portfolio Manager Industry Exp: 18 years JPM Exp: 14 years Jonathon Brachle, Vice President Research Analyst Industry Exp: 7 years JPM Exp: 7 years Jason Blumstein, Vice President Research Analyst Industry Exp: 10 years JPM Exp: 8 years
1
As of April 2015. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management will continue to be employed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.
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The targets and aims provided above are the Investment Manager’s targets and aims only and are not necessarily part of the Fund’s investment objectives and policies as stated in the prospectus. There is no guarantee that these will be achieved.
Durable business model Consistent earnings Clear competitive advantages High return on invested capital Sustainable free cashflow
Good stewards of capital Committed to increasing
Track record of success
Price/earnings Price/book value Private market analysis Free cashflow yield Enterprise value analysis
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The current portfolio management team assumed responsibility of the portfolio November 2008.
1Change in share price with net dividends, if any, reinvested (Source: Morningstar). 2Change in net asset value per share with net dividends, if any, reinvested (Source: Morningstar). 3Change in the Index with net income reinvested, in sterling terms. Comparison of the Company’s performance is made against this index. The benchmark is a recognized index of stocks which should
not be taken as wholly representative of the Company’s investment universe. The Company’s investment strategy does not follow or “track” this index and therefore there may be a degree of diversity in performance from the main index stated. (Source: Morningstar)
4Arithmetic difference between the net asset value and the index
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Russell 2000 Sector performance
27% 24% 24% 16% 14% 9% 6% 5%
Health Care Consumer Staples Utilities Financial Services Technology Consumer Discretionary Materials & Processing Producer Durables Energy
Source: Wilshire.
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21% 39% 40% 22% 20% 11% 15% 8%
27% 24% 24% 16% 14% 9% 6% 5%
Health Care Consumer Staples Utilities Financial Services Technology Consumer Discretionary Materials & Processing Producer Durables Energy Portfolio Russell 2000
Sector performance
Source: Wilshire. The portfolio is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. The above data excludes cash and gearing.
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Wilshire Atlas. The above data excludes cash and gearing. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell.
Attribution Summary
1
Stock: +4.41% Sector: -0.86%
Sector attribution (relative to Russell 2000) Positive contributors Return (%) Average Weight Diff (%) Impact (%) Negative contributors Return (%) Average Weight Diff (%) Impact (%)
Knight Transportation
96.79 1.09 0.75
Quiksilver
0.45
Marcus & Millichap
137.04 0.79 0.74
Ascent Media
1.24
Taminco
36.65 1.76 0.54
Resolute Energy
0.57
RLJ Lodging Trust
51.67 1.51 0.53
Tidewater
1.04
HFF
51.41 1.32 0.53
Laredo Petroleum
0.19
1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Financial Services Materials & Processing Energy Technology Producer Durables Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Utilities Health Care
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FY 2014 Q1 2015 One year Three years Five years Since 11/08* Ten years JPM US Smaller Companies IT share price1 5.6% 11.4% 20.4% 23.1% 19.8% 25.9% 11.3% JPM US Smaller Companies IT net asset value2 12.8% 11.5% 23.4% 20.9% 19.5% 24.5% 10.0% Russell 2000 Index Net (£)3 11.1% 9.5% 21.2% 18.8% 14.7% 18.5% 11.2% Excess return4 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 4.8% 6.0%
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. *The current portfolio management team assumed responsibility of the portfolio November 2008. These figures are run from 30 November 2008 through 31 March 2014.
1 Change in share price with net dividends, if any, reinvested (Source: Morningstar). 2 Change in net asset value per share with net dividends, if any, reinvested (Source: Morningstar). 3 Change in the Index with net income reinvested, in sterling terms. Comparison of the Company’s performance is made against this index. The benchmark is a recognized index of stocks which
should not be taken as wholly representative of the Company’s investment universe. The Company’s investment strategy does not follow or “track” this index and therefore there may be a degree of diversity in performance from the main index stated. (Source: Morningstar)
4 Arithmetic difference between the net asset value and the index
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Wilshire Atlas. The above data excludes cash and gearing. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The inclusion of the securities mentioned above is not to be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell.
Attribution Summary
1
Stock: +2.47% Sector: -0.37%
Sector attribution (relative to Russell 2000) Positive contributors Return (%) Average Weight Diff (%) Impact (%) Negative contributors Return (%) Average Weight Diff (%) Impact (%)
Freescale Semiconductor
69.69 1.18 0.62
Career Education
1.16
Patrick Industries
48.72 1.36 0.47
Rovi
1.44
Advent Software
51.21 1.18 0.44
Ascent Media
0.90
Cinemark Holdings
33.86 1.43 0.30
Tidewater
0.52
Drew Industries
30.72 1.24 0.23
First Of Long Island
1.34
1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Consumer Discretionary Materials & Processing Financial Services Energy Utilities Technology Producer Durables Consumer Staples Health Care
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Sector absolute and relative1 weights
Source: Wilshire.
1 Reflects relative position to the Russell 2000 Index.
24.7% 22.4% 15.6% 10.3% 9.8% 8.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
7.7% 2.6% 3.7%
0.1%
Financial Services Consumer Discretionary Producer Durables Materials & Processing Technology Health Care Consumer Staples Utilities Energy Absolute Relative
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The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Top Ten Holdings Portfolio Weight Benchmark Weight Relative Weight Waste Connections 2.83% 0.00% 2.83% Jarden 2.74% 0.00% 2.74% Brinker International 2.03% 0.00% 2.03% Toro 1.93% 0.00% 1.93% Pool Corp 1.91% 0.17% 1.74% Patrick Industries 1.76% 0.03% 1.73% Spectrum Brands 1.75% 0.00% 1.75% Douglas Dynamics 1.74% 0.03% 1.71% Silgan Holdings 1.70% 0.00% 1.70% AptarGroup 1.65% 0.00% 1.65%
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Patrick Industries
Overview
Patrick Industries manufacturers building products and materials for the
recreational vehicle (RV) and manufactured housing (MH) industries.
They manufacture a diverse range of products including vinyl/paper
laminated panels, granite and quartz countertops, furniture, bathroom/shower components, cabinet doors and bedding.
Attributes
The company is headquartered in the RV capital of North America
(Elkhart, IN) but its nationwide, integrated manufacturing and distribution network creates a key competitive advantage by keeping the company close to its customers.
Patrick is a key supplier and trusted partner in its key markets. Experienced management team and healthy balance sheet allows the
company the flexibility to make strategic acquisitions in a highly fragmented industry.
Growth has accelerated due to the rapid recovery in the RV market and
long term demographic trends support continued growth.
Content per RV is increasing with new production introductions.
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Figures as of 31 March 2014. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. There is no guarantee this holdings will remain in the portfolio and holdings may change at the portfolio manager’s discretion without notice. The information in this case study is intended as an example only and should not be construed as advice, it may not be suitable for your particular circumstances and if you are unsure of the suitability of any investment you should seek financial advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of the future. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author as at date of this document, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.
Stock price from 31 March 2010 through 31 March 2015
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Crocs
Overview
Crocs is engaged in the development and distribution of casual lifestyle
footwear, apparel and accessories for men, women and children.
Developed the unique clog in 2002 and today has hundreds of styles
including crocs sneakers and cros golf.
Attributes
Cros is an innovative leader in footwear. Its patented cell-resin Croslite
materials allows it to manufacture soft, comfortable, lighweight and odor resistant shoes.
We viewed 2014 as a transitional year for the company as it looked to
simplify its business model, tighten its cost structure, re-emphaise product innovation, expand globally and have a consistent global message.
We expected these strategic initiatives to lead to better margins and the
company has made significant progress in implementing them. $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
Figures as of 31 March 2014. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. There is no guarantee this holdings will remain in the portfolio and holdings may change at the portfolio manager’s discretion without notice. The information in this case study is intended as an example only and should not be construed as advice, it may not be suitable for your particular circumstances and if you are unsure of the suitability of any investment you should seek financial advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of the future. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author as at date of this document, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.
Stock price from 31 March 2010 through 31 March 2015
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Market capitalisation
1Including negatives. 212 month forward.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Wilshire.
Portfolio Portfolio Index* Market capitalization (weighted average) $3,281m USD2,068m P/E ratio - forward1 18.6x 21.5x Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.3% EPS growth2 11.4% 14.0% Return on Equity2 15.8% 9.3% Holdings 91 1,977 Gearing 5.9%
20.9%
24% 19% 6% 24% 37% 31% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% > 3B 1.5 - 3B 500M - 1.5B < 500M Portfolio Russell 2000
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GTM - U.S. | Page 8 Value Blend Growth Large 116.4% 104.3% 91.7% Mid 124.4% 118.1% 98.5% Small 114.3% 107.1% 97.4% Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth Large
41.1% 55.5% 76.6%
Large
251.8% 247.5% 260.2%
Mid
72.5% 76.8% 78.7%
Mid
340.5% 326.5% 313.1%
Small
51.0% 64.4% 77.7%
Small
273.5% 296.3% 319.4%
Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth Large
1.0% 3.8%
Large
13.5% 13.7% 13.0%
Mid
2.4% 4.0% 5.4%
Mid
14.7% 13.2% 11.9%
Small
2.0% 4.3% 6.6%
Small
4.2% 4.9% 5.6%
YTD Since Market Low (March 2009) 2014 Since Market Peak (October 2007) Current P/E as % of 20-year avg. P/E Current P/E vs. 20-year avg. P/E
16.4 16.9 19.3 14.1 16.2 21.1 17.8 19.6 21.7 14.3 16.6 22.0 16.6 18.6 21.0 14.5 17.4 21.6 Small Value Blend Growth Large Mid
Source: Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All calculations are cumulative total return, including dividends reinvested for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 – 3/31/15, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 – 3/31/15, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based on Russell-style indexes with the exception of the large blend category, which is based on the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of future
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$1 $3 $5 $7 $9 $11 $13 $15 $17 $19 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Real GDP
Year-over-year % chg
4Q14 YoY % chg: 2.4%
Components of GDP
4Q14 nominal GDP, trillions USD 13.4% Investment Ex-housing 68.5% Consumption 18.0% Gov’t Spending 3.3% Housing
Average: 3.0%
QoQ % chg: 2.2% Real GDP
Expansion Average: 2.3%
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter over quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of 2009. Guide to the Markets – U.S.Data are as of March 31, 2015
GTM - U.S. | Page 16
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Source: EIA, Factset, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Forecasts are from EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and start in 2015. ** Forecasts are from EIA Annual Energy Outlook and start in 2014. *** Production numbers as of 2015. **** Other includes conventional on and offshore natural gas drilling, tight gas, and coalbed methane. Natural gas prices are $/mmbtu and are of February 2015. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2015. '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
'95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Change in Production and Consumption of Oil
Production, consumption and inventories, million barrels per day
Price of Oil
Brent crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel
$58.17
Japan $13.37 Germany $9.29 U.S. $2.74
U.S. Natural Gas Production***
Trillions of cubic feet, USD Other**** Shale Gas
EIA Forecast**
2013 2014 2015* Production
U.S. 12.4 14.0 14.9 20.8% OPEC 36.5 36.5 36.5
Other 42.0 42.6 42.7 1.5% Global 90.9 93.0 94.1 3.5%
Consumption
U.S. 19.0 19.0 19.3 2.0% Europe 14.3 14.2 14.1
Japan 4.5 4.3 4.2
China 10.3 10.7 11.0 6.8% Other 43.2 44.0 44.5 3.2% Global 91.2 92.2 93.1 2.1%
Inventory Change
0.9 1.0 Growth since 2013 GTM - U.S. | Page 27
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Source: (Left) BLS, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) BLS FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Unemployment rates shown are for civilians aged 25 and older. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2015
Net Job Creation Since Feb. 2010 – Millions of Jobs
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
2.5% 4.8% 5.3% 8.6% Less than High School Degree High School No College Some College College or Greater Education Level
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68%
Labor Force Participation Rate
GTM - U.S. Left chart | Page 24 Right charts | Page 23
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Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Revolving includes credit cards. **1Q15 household debt service ratio and 4Q14 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2015.
GTM - U.S. | Page 17
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
Household Net Worth
Billions USD, not seasonally adjusted 1Q15**: $83,899 2Q07: $ 67,866
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
Household Debt Service Ratio
Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, sa 1Q80: 10.6% 1Q15**: 9.9% 4Q07: 13.2%
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% of GDP
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of 31 December 2014.
12/14 24.1% LT average: 25.7% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11
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Source: S&P 500 earnings are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates; 1Russell 2000 earnings are Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates. Data as of 3/31/15. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. Shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Russell 2000 Earnings Growth 1 2015 vs 2014
Materials 28% Health Care 19% Industrials 18% Consumer Discretionary 16% Information Technology 13% Financials 7% Utilities 2% Consumer Staples 0% Energy NM Russell 2000 +8.3% Russell ex-Energy +12.9% 4% 11% 8% 13% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2015E 2015E ex-Energy S&P 500 Russell 2000
Estimates for 2015 Earnings
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Source: Standard & Poor’s, U.S. Treasury, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Markers represent monthly 2-year correlations only. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2015.
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Correlations Between Weekly Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements
Weekly S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yield, rolling 2-year correlation, May 1963 – Mar. 2015
Positive relationship between yield movements and stock returns Negative relationship between yield movements and stock returns When yields are below 5%, rising rates are generally associated with rising stock prices
10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation Coefficient
GTM - U.S. | Page 12 Sector correlations to rates 2-year rolling, 1994-2013
Max Average Current Min
0.00 0.50 1.00 Utilities Telecom
Materials Technology Health Care Energy
S&P 500 Industrials Financials
More positively correlated with rising interest rates Less positively correlated with rising interest rates
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Fed policy implemented through quantity of reserves 1965-1966
1967-1969
12% 8% 1971 4%
1972-1973 2%
1974
1977-1979
4% 0% 1980
12% 11% 1982
1%
1983-1984
10% 8% 1987
32% 26% 1988-1989
27% 17% Fed policy implemented through interest rates 1994-1995
7%
1999-2000
18% 10% 2004-2006
20% 11% S&P 500 price return Rate hike episode: Initial reaction to first hike Subsequent reaction to remaining hikes Total reaction to all hikes
Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, US Treasury, JPMorgan Asset
Source: US Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as at 31 March 2014.
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26
15 17 1 26 15 2 12 27
26 4 7
34 20 31 27 20
26 9 3 14 4
23 13 13 30 11 .4
% 10% 20% 30% 40% '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
S&P 500 Intra-year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns
Despite average intra-year drops of 14.2%, annual returns positive in 27 of 35 years* YTD
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. *Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2014 excluding 2015 which is year to date. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2015.
GTM - U.S. | Page 11
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The manager seeks to achieve the stated objectives. There can be no guarantee the objectives will be met.
Fundamental, bottom-up research process aiming to outperform benchmark and peers over full market cycle Focus on quality companies, with strong management teams and attractive valuations
– Lower market risk – Diversified portfolio with eye on risk management – Solid protection in down markets
Experienced investment team led by Don San Jose, with over 17 years of industry experience
– A proven ability to pick stocks – Strong, consistent track record
The market environment remains constructive for US equities, including small caps
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*Manager Inception date: Don San Jose assumed co-portfolio management duties of the Fund in November 2008. Don San Jose became lead portfolio on the strategy in February 2013. Attribution is annualized, gross of fees and also excludes cash. On 31/01/98 the benchmark for the Fund was changed from Russell 2000 to Russell 2000 Net. On 04/07/07 the benchmark changed to Russell Micro Cap Index (Total Return Net). On 01/10/09 the benchmark changed to the Russell 2000 Net Index. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Wilshire.
Stock Selection Sector Selection Total Financial Services 3.06 0.17 3.23 Consumer Discretionary 1.90 0.03 1.93 Technology 0.95 0.21 1.16 Energy
0.22 0.14 Producer Durables 0.01
0.00 Materials & Processing
Utilities
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Total 4.99 0.23 5.23
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This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount
reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy. Investment is subject to documentation (Investment Trust Profiles, Key Features and Terms and Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No:
4d03c02a800243aa