Joint CoR OECD Webinar The impact of the COVID-19 on EU regions - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Joint CoR – OECD Webinar The impact of the COVID-19

• n EU regions and cities

Regional characterisation and vulnerability to tourism shocks Alessandro Rainoldi, European Commission, JRC 19 June 2020

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Impact of COVID-19 is different than impact of lockdown Territorial hetereogeneity: the map of epidemiological impact does not coincide with the map of economic impact Some sectors have suffered most (e.g. tourism)

Asymmetric impact?

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Regional distribution of expenditure

• Disaggregation of the national tourism expenditure to their regional levels.
• Assumption: Regions with higher nights spent will probably generate higher tourism expenditure.

ESTAT Expenditure Proxy: Night spent/NUTS3 Regional Expenditure

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High/Low expenditure regions

• Hot/coldspots: regions with either high or

low values, surrounded by other regions with also high or low values

• Outliers: regions have extreme values.
• Presence of statistical significant clustered

patterns.

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Tourism vulnerability

The Vulnerability index is a JRC B.3 peer-reviewed rank calculated taking into account two indicators: tourism intensity and seasonality. Regions with more tourists per inhabitant (intensity) and where touristic activity is concentrated in shorter periods (seasonality) are considered more vulnerable.

Source: Batista e Silva, F., Herrera, M. A. M., Rosina, K., Barranco, R. R., Freire, S., & Schiavina, M. (2018). “Analysing spatiotemporal patterns of tourism in Europe at high-resolution with conventional and big data sources”. Tourism Management, 68, 101-115.

Regional Expenditure Tourism Vulnerability Expenditure per Vulnerability

41.203 28.407 12.619 59.606 42.140 16.053 31.390 28.809 11.679 77.045 94.115 33.999

• 20.000

40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 Domestic EU Extra-EU

Tot

• tal to

tourism expendit iture per per Vuln ulnerabil ilit ity: Mill illion EU EUR

Low [1,2,3] Medium [4,6] High [8,9] Very high [12,16]

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Impact on GDP

GDP impact at regional NUTS 2 level excluding the impact of policy measures Commission Staff Working Document SWD(2020) 98 final Identifying Europe's recovery needs Accompanying the Communication Europe's moment: Repair and Prepare for the Next Generation

Note: The analysis is carried out using the RHOMOLO macroeconomic framework, a numerical-spatial general equilibrium model based on regional account data and a set of fully observed bilateral final and intermediate shipments consistent with the national accounts. The economic disturbances implemented in RHOMOLO are consistent with the 2020 Spring Forecast.

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Thank you!

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