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Joint CoR OECD Webinar The impact of the COVID-19 on EU regions and cities Regional characterisation and vulnerability to tourism shocks Alessandro Rainoldi, European Commission, JRC 19 June 2020 1 Asymmetric impact? Impact of COVID-19

  1. Joint CoR – OECD Webinar The impact of the COVID-19 on EU regions and cities Regional characterisation and vulnerability to tourism shocks Alessandro Rainoldi, European Commission, JRC 19 June 2020 1

  2. Asymmetric impact? Impact of COVID-19 is different than impact of lockdown Territorial hetereogeneity: the map of epidemiological impact does not coincide with the map of economic impact Some sectors have suffered most (e.g. tourism) 2

  3. Regional distribution of expenditure  Disaggregation of the national tourism expenditure to their regional levels.  Assumption: Regions with higher nights spent will probably generate higher tourism expenditure. ESTAT Expenditure Proxy: Night spent/NUTS3 Regional Expenditure 3

  4. High/Low expenditure regions  Hot/coldspots: regions with either high or low values, surrounded by other regions with also high or low values  Outliers: regions have extreme values.  Presence of statistical significant clustered patterns . 4

  5. Tourism vulnerability The Vulnerability index is a JRC B.3 peer-reviewed rank Expenditure Regional Tourism per calculated taking into account two indicators: tourism Expenditure Vulnerability Vulnerability intensity and seasonality. Regions with more tourists per inhabitant (intensity) and where touristic activity is concentrated in shorter periods (seasonality) are considered more vulnerable. Tot otal to tourism expendit iture per per Vuln ulnerabil ilit ity: Mill illion EU EUR Low [1,2,3] Medium [4,6] High [8,9] Very high [12,16] 94.115 100.000 77.045 80.000 59.606 60.000 42.140 41.203 33.999 31.390 28.407 28.809 40.000 16.053 12.619 11.679 20.000 - Domestic EU Extra-EU Source: Batista e Silva, F., Herrera, M. A. M., Rosina, K., Barranco, R. R., Freire, S., & Schiavina, M. (2018). “Analysing spatiotemporal patterns of tourism in Europe at high -resolution with conventional and big data sources”. Tourism Management, 68, 101 -115. 5

  6. Impact on GDP GDP impact at regional NUTS 2 level excluding the impact of policy measures Commission Staff Working Document SWD(2020) 98 final Identifying Europe's recovery needs Accompanying the Communication Europe's moment: Repair and Prepare for the Next Generation Note: The analysis is carried out using the RHOMOLO macroeconomic framework, a numerical-spatial general equilibrium model based on regional account data and a set of fully observed bilateral final and intermediate shipments consistent with the national accounts. The economic disturbances implemented in RHOMOLO are consistent with the 2020 Spring Forecast. 6

  7. Thank you! EU Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc @EU_ScienceHub EU Science Hub – Joint Research Centre EU Science, Research and Innovation Eu Science Hub 7

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