John Gaynor John Gaynor NOAA NOAA Office of Weather and Air - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

John Gaynor NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality for Naomi Surgi John Gaynor NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality for Naomi Surgi NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction

WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

Hurricane Modeling Program Leader Hurricane Modeling Program Leader

• OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST ISSUES
• HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON IMPROVING HURRICANE TRACK

FORECASTS

• SCIENCE AND MODELING CHALLENGES FOR INTENSITY/STRUCTURE,

RAINFALL

• DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW OPERTIONAL MODELING SYSTEM
• SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS
• FUTURE CHALLENGES
• OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST ISSUES
• HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON IMPROVING HURRICANE TRACK

FORECASTS

• SCIENCE AND MODELING CHALLENGES FOR INTENSITY/STRUCTURE,

RAINFALL

• DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW OPERTIONAL MODELING SYSTEM
• SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS
• FUTURE CHALLENGES

OVERVIEW OVERVIEW

• CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF TRACK FORECASTS
• IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION
• IMPROVED PREDICTION OF SURFACE WIND

DISTRIBUTION

• IMPROVED RAINFALL FORECASTS
• WAVES, STORM SURGE, HURRICANE GENESIS
• CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF TRACK FORECASTS
• IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION
• IMPROVED PREDICTION OF SURFACE WIND

DISTRIBUTION

• IMPROVED RAINFALL FORECASTS
• WAVES, STORM SURGE, HURRICANE GENESIS

OPERATIONAL FORECAST ISSUES: OPERATIONAL FORECAST ISSUES:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Error (nau tical miles)

Year

1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 6 tre ndline 1 9 8 7 -1 9 9 6 tre ndline

Major Upgrades in Glo bal a nd Hurr icane Num erical m odels

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4 tre ndline

TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Error (nau tical miles)

Year

1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 6 tre ndline 1 9 8 7 -1 9 9 6 tre ndline

Major Upgrades in Glo bal a nd Hurr icane Num erical m odels

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4 tre ndline

With the exception of “stalling and looping storms”, hurricane track prediction has shown remarkable progress over the past three decades. This is due to advancement of observations (both satellite and aircraft), advancement of numerical modeling systems, investment in high speed super computing and technology infusion.

How NOAA Improved Track Forecasts

• HIGH QUALITY OBSERVATIONS (large scale

environment surrounding hurricane, e.g. satellite, aircraft)

• MADE BETTER USE OF OBSERVATIONS IN

HURRICANE MODELS (advances in data assimilation, e.g. for satellites- direct assimilation

• f radiances)
• IMPROVED HURRICANE MODELS (improved

representation of physical processes, increased resolution, improved initial specification of vortex)

Three components of modeling system:

NOAA’s Hurricane Aircraft

NOAA’s G-IV

(high altitude jet) flies in storm environment releases dropsondes to obtain measurements of wind, temperature and moisture - TRACK upgrade w/ doppler radar to obtain core

• bservations -

INTENSITY/STRUCTURE

NOAA’s P-3’s

(turbo- props) augments G-IV observations in environment hurricane core observations

****AFRES (Bilxoxi, MS) provides mainstay of recon for NHC

NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT

FLIGHT LEVEL: ~45K FLIGHT LEVEL: ~45K RANGE: 4200nm RANGE: 4200nm SPEED: 442 KTS. SPEED: 442 KTS.

~30 drops per mission ~30 drops per mission

GIV Aircraft Synoptic Surveillance Pattern

Hurricane Isabel Synoptic Surveillance Sept 13 to Sept 17, 2003

Red tracks: AFRES WC-130 Blue tracks: NOAA G-IV 00Z Green tracks: NOAA G-IV 12Z

We are now at the juncture of We are now at the juncture of improving intensity forecasts, improving intensity forecasts, where we were a decade ago in where we were a decade ago in advancing hurricane track advancing hurricane track forecasts forecasts…… …….. .. But let But let’ ’s put the intensity s put the intensity problem into the proper problem into the proper forecast context forecast context…… ……

HURRICANE KATE 25 SEPT – 7 OCTOBER 2003 HURRICANE JEANNE 13-28 SEPTEMBER 2004

TS Nicholas TS Nicholas 13 13-

• 23 October 2003

23 October 2003

Tropical Storm Franklin 21 - 29 July 2005 Tropical Storm Franklin 21 - 29 July 2005

70 mph 997 mb 70 mph 997 mb

Hurricane Ophelia 6 - 17 September 2005 Hurricane Ophelia 6 - 17 September 2005

45 mph 1005 mb 45 mph 1005 mb

AFTER QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG CAT. 4 HURRICANE, LILI WEAKENED EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN IT HAD INTENSIFIED

LILI NEAR ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 145 MPH LILI MAKING LANDFALL AS A CAT. 1 HURRICANE

Charley/Frances Core Sizes Charley/Frances Core Sizes

Charley: 35nm diameter Charley: 35nm diameter FRANCIS: 115nm

FRANCIS: 115nm

IVAN: 190NM IVAN: 190NM

Dennis: 50nm Dennis: 50nm

Hurricane Hurricane-

• Wave

Wave-

• Ocean

Ocean-

• Surge

Surge-

• Inundation Coupled

Inundation Coupled Models Models

High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer

HYCOM

3D ocean circulation model

WAVEWATCH III

Spectral wave model NOAH LSM

NOS

land and coastal waters

NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land

runoff fluxes wave fluxes wave spectra winds air temp. SST currents elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures

• ther fluxes

surge inundation

radiative fluxes

HWRF SYSTEM

NMM hurricane atmosphere

SST Before Hurricane Dennis SST Before Hurricane Dennis

July 8, 2005 0200 UTC

Hurricane Dennis’ Cool Wake Hurricane Dennis’ Cool Wake

July 11, 2005 1400 UTC

HWRF Hurricane Katrina

HYCOM T&E Katrina HYCOM T&E Katrina

The Future

Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy Highest model resolution in areas of special interest Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF

THANK YOU THANK YOU FOR YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION ATTENTION… …