Job Growth in the Region Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Job Growth in the Region Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Job Growth in the Region Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. The 2 nd Federal

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SLIDE 1

Job Growth in the Region

Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

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SLIDE 2

The 2nd Federal Reserve District

Regions in the District

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

Upstate Northern NJ Downstate

1

Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands

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SLIDE 3

Overview

  • The regional economy has continued to grow slowly
  • ver the past year, with many parts of the District seeing

job gains.

  • New York City remains on a strong growth trajectory,

while job growth in upstate NY and northern NJ has been

  • slower. Puerto Rico continues to lose jobs.
  • Middle-wage jobs have finally started to return, though to

different degrees across the region.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

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SLIDE 4

Recent Economic Performance

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SLIDE 5

Regional Employment Trends

Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.

82 88 94 100 106 112 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Downstate NY United States Upstate NY Puerto Rico Northern NJ

Jun

Index (Dec2007=100)

Shading indicates NBER recession

+1.7% +1.8% +0.4% +1.4%

  • 2.2%

Y-O-Y Jul

4

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SLIDE 6

Sectors Driving Regional Job Growth

Net Change in Employment, Thousands, 2013-2016 (YTD)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com.

5

129 88 70 44 5

  • 30

30 60 90 120 150 14 8 4

  • 9
  • 9
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 28 22 18 13 4

  • 15

15 30 45 60 75 4

  • 2
  • 3
  • 9
  • 20
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5

Downstate NY Northern NJ Upstate NY Puerto Rico

Health & Education Services Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Government Construction

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SLIDE 7

Recent Growth in and around New York City

2015 Private-Sector Job Growth

Strong Moderate Modest Little or None Declining

Ulster Dutchess Putnam Westchester Fairfield Orange Rockland Bergen Passaic Sussex Morris Essex Union Suffolk Nassau Queens Kings

Bronx

Monmouth Middlesex Somerset Hunterdon Warren

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.

6

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SLIDE 8

New York City’s New Growth Sector

Number of Jobs

50 100 150 200 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Securities Employment Technology Employment

Thousands

+53,000 +12,000

2010 to 2015 7

Technology Employment

  • Computer manufacturing
  • Electronic shopping
  • Software publishing
  • Data processing, hosting
  • Internet/web search portals
  • Computer systems design
  • Scientific R&D services

Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.

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SLIDE 9

Recent Growth in Upstate NY

2015 Private-Sector Job Growth

Buffalo Watertown Syracuse Rochester Binghamton Elmira Glens Falls Utica Albany Ithaca North Country

Strong Moderate Modest Little or None Declining

8

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.

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SLIDE 10

Upstate Manufacturing Employment

Indexes of Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com.

9 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Index (Jan1990=100)

Shading indicates NBER recessions

Albany Binghamton Buffalo Rochester Syracuse

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SLIDE 11

The Return of Middle-Wage Jobs

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SLIDE 12

Job Categories

Based on 2015 Median Wages, United States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). Management Computer & Math Legal Engineering Business & Finance

Healthcare Practitioners Sciences Education Arts & Entertainment Installation & Repair Construction Social Services Protective Services Administrative Support Production Transportation Healthcare Support Sales Building Maintenance Personal Care Farming Food Preparation

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

50% 20% 30%

Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage

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SLIDE 13

Job Gains in the United States

Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands

2,104 1,205 2,184 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1,470 2,261 1,577

2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015

Higher Wage Higher Wage Lower Wage Middle Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).

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SLIDE 14

Middle-Wage Jobs Returning in the U.S.

  • Growth in traditional blue collar jobs:
  • Construction

[+400,000]

  • Production

[+300,000]

  • Transportation

[+500,000]

  • Installation & Repair

[+250,000]

  • Education jobs growing again as local government fiscal

pressures have subsided. [+150,000]

  • Rebound in Administrative Support jobs. [+400,000]

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

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SLIDE 15

Job Gains and Losses in the Region

Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands

14

Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower

130 179 157 35 23 27

  • 90

90 180

  • 45

45 90

Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower

102 18 144 27 7 17

Downstate NY: 2013-2015 New Jersey: 2013-2015 Downstate NY: 2010-2013 New Jersey: 2010-2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).

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SLIDE 16

Job Gains and Losses in the Region

Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands

  • 30

30 60

  • 40
  • 20

20

Upstate NY: 2010-2013 Puerto Rico: 2010-2013

Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower

15

  • 25

22 2

  • 29

14

Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower

Upstate NY: 2013-2015 Puerto Rico: 2013-2015

12 5 19 4

  • 39
  • 2

15

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics).

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SLIDE 17

Middle-Wage Job Gains Weak in Some Areas

Upstate NY

  • Limited bounce back in Education and Construction jobs

coupled with ongoing declines in Administrative Support and Production jobs.

New Jersey

  • Steep losses in Administrative Support and Production jobs.

Puerto Rico

  • Broad-based declines in middle-wage jobs, with large job losses

tied to the island’s weak public sector (Education, Protection) along with an acceleration in Construction job losses.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

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SLIDE 18

Summary

  • New York City continues to be an engine of growth in the

region, with a burgeoning tech sector and widespread gains in middle-wage jobs.

  • Growth has been slower in upstate NY and northern NJ,

where middle-wage jobs have not bounced back as much.

  • Puerto Rico continues to struggle under the weight of

economic stagnation, a fiscal crisis, and out-migration.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

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SLIDE 19

Appendix

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SLIDE 20

Recent Job Growth in the District

Percent Change in Total Employment, 2015Q2 to 2016Q2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.

1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%

  • 0.1%
  • 1.0%
  • 2.2%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

United States NYC Lower Hudson Valley Buffalo Rochester Albany Syracuse Binghamton Puerto Rico Utica Long Island Northern NJ

2.1%

Fairfield

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