Is New York S till a Middle Class Town? John Mollenkopf Drum Maj - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Is New York S till a Middle Class Town? John Mollenkopf Drum Maj - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 19, 2023 106 likes •275 views

Is New York S till a Middle Class Town? John Mollenkopf Drum Maj or Institute and the Baruch S chool of Public Affairs April 2, 2007 The Paradox: Growing Inequality Amidst Overall Prosperity A growing economy Despite employment

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SLIDE 1

Is New York S till a Middle Class Town?

John Mollenkopf Drum Maj or Institute and the Baruch S chool of Public Affairs April 2, 2007

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SLIDE 2

The Paradox:

Growing Inequality Amidst Overall Prosperity

  • A growing economy

– Despite employment fluctuating around 3.5 million, real earnings have grown, driving up real estate prices, creating a housing construction boom, improving city’ s fiscal position

  • But income distribution is increasingly unequal

– More people live in households at the bottom (below $30K) and top (above $250K), fewer in the households in between

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SLIDE 3

Total Payroll Employment in New York City 1958 - 2006

2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800

1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800

Source: New York State Department of Labor, Current Employment Statistics Survey, Annual Averages

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SLIDE 4

Total Real Wages for Workers in New York City 1975 – 2006

In Trillions of Constant Dollars 1982-1984 = 100/ 2006 = 215.0

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: NYS DOL ES202/QCEW Series SIC 1975-2000, NAICS 2001-2006

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SLIDE 5

Average Real Annual Wage in New York City 1975 – 2006

In Thousands of Constant Dollars 1982-1984 = 100/ S eptember 2005 = 215.8

20 25 30 35 40

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

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SLIDE 6

Changing Income Distribution 1990 – 2005

(Percent of People by Household Income, Constant $2005) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 $5K $10K $20K $30K $40K $50K $60K $70K $80K $90K $100K $110K $120K $130K $140K $150K $160K $170K $180K $190K $200K $210K $220K $230K $240K $250K $260K $270K $280K $300K $350K $400K $450K $500K $500K+

1990

1990 2005

Source: 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2005 ACS

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SLIDE 7

Population by 1990 Income Quintiles

5 10 15 20 25

Fifth Fourth Third S econd First 1990 1990 2005

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SLIDE 8

Total Earnings by 1990 Income Quintiles

(Trillions of $2005)

20 40 60 80 100 120

Fifth Fourth Third S econd First 1990 1990 2005

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SLIDE 9

The DMI Brackets 1990-2005

(S ingles = $45-90K, Families = $75-135K)

20 40 60 80

Low Middle High 1990 2005 1990 2005

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SLIDE 10

Poverty Brackets 1990-2005

(Low = < 2 X Poverty, Middle = 2 to 5 X Poverty, High = > 5 X Poverty)

10 20 30 40

Low Middle High 1990 2005 1990 2005

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SLIDE 11

Any Way You Look At It…

  • The number of people in the bottom and top

parts of the income distribution are growing relative to those in the middle

  • The top part is growing relative to the others

not only in numbers, but in total income

  • Average incomes are thus rising mainly

because the top is pulling them up

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SLIDE 12

Why Aren’ t People Feeling ‘ Relative Deprivation’ ?

  • Who occupies the brackets changes over time
  • The shrinking number of native white households

is shifting markedly upwards

  • To a far less extent, this is also true of native

black and Hispanic households

  • The growing number of immigrant white, black,

and Asian households is fairly evenly distributed across brackets

  • But Immigrant Hispanic households are clustered

at the bottom

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SLIDE 13

Household Income by Race (Native HH Head)

(People in Households – Low = Under 2 X Poverty, high = Over 5 X Poverty)

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 Whites B lacks His panics A s ians

Low in 90 Middle in 90 High in 90

Low in 90 Low in 05 Middle in 90 Middle in 05 High in 90 High in 05

Source: 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2005 ACS

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SLIDE 14

Household Income by Race (Foreign HH Head)

(People in Households – Low = Under 2 X Poverty, High = Over 5 X Poverty)

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Whites B lacks His panics A s ians

Low in 90 Middle in 90 High in 90

Low in 90 Low in 05 Middle in 90 Middle in 05 High in 90 High in 05

S

  • urce: 1990 Public Use Microdata S

ample, 2005 ACS

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SLIDE 15

Bottom Lines

  • Growing income inequality does not prevent many

households from being upwardly mobile

  • Native households are diminishing part of overall

population, especially at the low end

  • White, black, and Asian immigrant households are

growing all across income distribution

  • But Hispanic immigrant households remain

clustered at the bottom