Is Energize Eastside needed? 1 What is Energize Eastside? 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Is Energize Eastside needed?

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What is Energize Eastside?

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Energize Eastside

• PSE’s proposed 18-mile transmission line

through residential neighborhoods

• Redmond
• Bellevue
• Newcastle
• Renton
• 230,000 volts
• Poles from 85 - 130 feet high
• Lifetime cost: $1.4 - $2.0 billion

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Who is Richard Lauckhart?

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George B. Lawrence (grandfather)

Founded International Electric Company Stewart, BC (1922)

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Donald W. Lauckhart (father)

Worked at Puget Power’s Shuffleton power plant Manager, Grays Harbor PUD Aberdeen, WA

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• J. Richard Lauckhart

Puget Power (22 years) Vice president of power planning (4 years) Industry consultant (20 years)

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How did I get involved with CENSE?

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In April 2015…

You don’t know me, but could you look at this PSE project that is confusing us?

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What is a “load flow study?”

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Grids can get complicated. We use computer simulations to study how the grid reacts in different situations. Red lines show transmission lines not distribution lines.

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Load flow study

Inputs

• Physical layout of grid
• How much electricity is needed
• How much electricity can be generated
• Resistance in each wire

Outputs

• How much electricity passes

through each part

• Warning if any part overloads
• Warning if voltage drops too much

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Load flow study for Energize Eastside

• PSE/Quanta did a load flow study to justify Energize Eastside (2013)
• Scenario: two critical transformers fail during heavy winter

consumption (WECC Base Case)

• PSE added two more assumptions:
• Triple flow to Canada (from 500 MW to 1,500 MW)
• Six local generation plants out of service
• Result: remaining infrastructure would overload
• Described in “Eastside Needs Assessment”

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Did PSE do the study correctly?

• Did PSE model transformers correctly?
• Did PSE modify line resistance?
• Did PSE make sure voltage output was okay?
• Did PSE look at both local and regional grid outputs?

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Did PSE correctly model all area 230/115 KV transformers?

14 other transformers share the load.

(discovered through simulation)

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Our own load flow study

I asked PSE for CEII clearance. (Sept. 2015) PSE said I didn’t have a “legitimate need.” (Oct. 2015) I recruited Roger Schiffman. (Nov. 2015) We got WECC Base Cases from FERC, licensed the software, and started the simulation. (Nov. 2015)

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Puget Sound region

1,600 MW of local generation

WECC Base Case

500 MW to Canada 200 MW to Portland 8100 MW from Columbia River hydro, coal, wind

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Puget Sound region

PSE’s scenario

1,500 MW to Canada 200 MW to Portland

?

260 MW of local generation

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What’s going wrong?

We tried to simulate PSE’s scenario. The computer couldn’t solve it. We ran the unmodified WECC Base Case. No problems. PSE’s scenario overloads 11 transmission lines that connect the Puget Sound to power sources in central Washington.

The scenario is unworkable!

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100% 115% 109% 131%

Summer Normal Summer Emergency Winter Normal Winter Emergency

Relative transformer capacities

Another problem

PSE appears to be using “summer normal” capacity ratings for transformers in a “winter emergency” scenario.

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Forecast discrepancy

PSE used forecast growth of 2.4% per year to justify the project. PSE sent WECC a forecast of only 0.5% per year. Can this discrepancy be explained?

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PSE must release data

PSE must release its data to experts with appropriate clearance. We can verify how PSE solved problems in this scenario. Otherwise, we must conclude Energize Eastside is not needed.

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Lines cross in 2058

System capacity (from transformer capacity) Customer demand (from simulation and WECC)

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We have time to select the best alternative. No Action Alternative

• Best alternative for the short term (2018)
• Meets reliability standards
• Saves dollars and trees

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Alternative 2: Integrated Resource Approach

• Can be significantly reduced in cost and scale in the

near term

• Improves reliability in the long term
• Batteries and other technologies become more

viable with longer timeline

• Lowers carbon emissions

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Alternative 3: New 230/115 kV transformers

• Can be significantly reduced in scale
• No new transmission lines
• May be cheaper than Alternative 2 (short term)

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New alternative: Replace Shuffleton

• Find new location for gas generation plant to

replace Shuffleton plant

• Profits from sale of Shuffleton could offset cost for

rate payers

• PSE created shortfall of emergency power when

Shuffleton was sold

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PSE’s forecast is –

• Not supported by data reviewed by stakeholders
• Based on assumptions that cannot happen
• Questionable due to mistakes (transformer capacities)
• Apparently inconsistent (WECC vs. Energize Eastside

studies)

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Energize Eastside is –

• Needlessly wasteful of ratepayer funds
• Harmful to the Eastside and the environment
• Not the best solution for reliability or safety
• May be motivated to maximize investor returns

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Alternative solutions are –

• Less expensive
• Lower impact for residents and scenery
• A better way to leverage developing technology
• More supportive of environmental goals

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