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Irregular Migration, Human Irregular Migration, Human Smuggling and Informal Smuggling and Informal Economy in a European Economy in a European Perspective" Perspective" Presentation at the conference of the National P Thematic

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Presentation by:

Irregular Migration, Human Irregular Migration, Human Smuggling and Informal Smuggling and Informal Economy in a European Economy in a European Perspective" Perspective"

P Presentation at the conference of the National Thematic Network for Asylum Seekers 25.October 2005, Gothenburg, Sweden

Michael Jandl

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2 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

International Centre for Migration International Centre for Migration Policy Development Policy Development

It is ICMPD’s aim to promote comprehensive and sustainable migration policies and function as an information exchange mechanism for governments and

  • rganisations primarily on

European migration issues

Integration Visa Asylum & Protection Return & Readmission THB & People Smuggling Labour Migration Border Management

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3 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Outline of Presentation Outline of Presentation

  • 1. Overview of Irregular Migration in

Europe

  • 2. Recent Trends in Irregular Migration
  • 3. Research on Human Smuggling
  • Distinction Smuggling - Trafficking
  • 4. Some implications for asylum,

irregular labour markets and integration

  • 5. Discussion
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4 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Irregular Migration as a Irregular Migration as a subject of research? subject of research?

Irregular (illegal/undocumented) migration is

  • „Clandestine“ and thus hidden from

view But it is also:

  • Of high social and political relevance

therefore, researchers need to find ways to learn more about the extent and nature of irregular migration

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5 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Irregular Migration: Irregular Migration: Definitions and Types Definitions and Types

6 relevant types:

Work illegal No Work Work illegal

Entry illegal

Work illegal No Work Work illegal

Entry legal Residence illegal Residence legal

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6 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Methods for estimating the Methods for estimating the size of irregular migration? size of irregular migration?

Differentiation:

  • Stock data (illegal residence, illegal

work)

  • Flow data (illegal entry)
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7 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Forms of Irregular Migration I Forms of Irregular Migration I

Illegal Border Crossings

  • Using border apprehension figures, an estimated

600 – 800,000 migrants annually crossed EU-25 borders illegally (data for 2001) Visa over-stayers

  • Difficult to quantify but according to figures from

regularization programmes could be again several hundred thousands annually

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8 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Forms of Irregular Migration II Forms of Irregular Migration II

False, Falsified or Fraudulently Obtained Documents

  • False/falsified passports, visas or residence

permits, False guarantees for obtaining visas

  • „Sham marriages“, „Fake adoptions“, „bogus

students“, Fraudulently „self-employed“, etc. Total irregular Gross Migration to EU-25 could be much higher still Total irregular Net Migration: ?

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9 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Trends and Structure Trends and Structure

  • f Irregular Migration
  • f Irregular Migration

More reliable conclusions can be drawn on trends and structure, rather than volume: Increases/decreases? Countries of origin? Routes of illegal migration? Social characteristics of irregular migrants?

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10 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Trends in border apprehensions in Trends in border apprehensions in Western/Southern Europe Western/Southern Europe

n.a. 82,451 100.632 105.148 111.756 TOTAL 5 6,943 8,181 7,405 4,967 5.668 Switzerland (4) 15,675 19,176 16.670 18.517 15.195 Spain (3) n.a. 1,675* 3,838 4,902 9.592 Italy (2) 13,635 14,331 23,719 20,143 26.817 Italy (1) n.a. 19,974 22,638 28,560 31.485 Germany 13,584 19,114 26,362 28,059 22.999 Austria 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Country of apprehension

(1) Italy: includes only Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (2) Italy: includes only the Northeastern Border to Slovenia, * 2003: only 1 HJ (3) Spain: includes only migrants intercepted while arriving per boat (4) Switzerland: excluding international airports

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11 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Trends in Border Apprehensions Trends in Border Apprehensions in Central Europe in Central Europe

Migration related border apprehensions in 5 Central European Countries

  • 5.000

10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Czech Republic Hungary* Poland Slovakia Slovenia * Revised figures

Source: ICMPD 2005

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12 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Trends in border apprehensions in Trends in border apprehensions in Central/Eastern Europe in 2004 Central/Eastern Europe in 2004

Increasing Apprehensions Decreasing Apprehensions Other States Major Illegal Flows Minor Illegal Flows

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13 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Countries of Origin of Countries of Origin of Illegal Migrants in EU Illegal Migrants in EU-

  • 15

15

Top 10 countries of origin of apprehended illegal aliens in EU-15 in 2002

Romania 8% Iraq 8% Morocco 7% China 3% Other Countries 43% Russia 2% Turkey 3% Albania 12% Algeria 4% FRY 5% Ukraine 5%

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14 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Top 5 Countries of Origin of Top 5 Countries of Origin of Illegal Migrants in CEE Illegal Migrants in CEE-

  • 19*

19*

2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 Moldova Pakistan Russia Ukraine Iraq Top 5 Source Countries in 2003 and 2004

  • f Migrants apprehended for illegal border crossing in 19 CEE States

Source: ICMPD 2005

* Based on data from: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia-Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

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15 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Possible factors in the long Possible factors in the long-

  • term decline of apprehensions

term decline of apprehensions

  • Fewer irregular migrants (?)
  • Political/security developments in some major

source countries (Afghanistan, Iraq,..)

  • Changed definitions and travel requirements

(visa obligations, EU enlargement,..)

  • More involvement of human smuggling (lower

success rates of border apprehensions)

  • Changed modus operandi of human smugglers
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16 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Diversity of Irregular Diversity of Irregular Migration in Europe Migration in Europe

Italy’s regularization 2002/2003:

  • 640,000 regularizations
  • Top 3 countries were: Romania, Ukraine, Albania

Spain’s 2005 regularization :

  • 700,000 regularizations
  • Top 3 countries were: Ecuador, Romania, Morocco

EU-15 (2002 CIREFI data)

  • Top 3 countries were: Albania, Romania, Iraq

CEE-19 (2004 ICMPD data)

  • Top 3 countries were: Moldova, Pakistan, Russia
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17 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Diversity of Determining Diversity of Determining Factors across Europe Factors across Europe

  • Historic developments (colonial ties,

guestworker recruitment,..)

  • Cultural and language proximities
  • Geographical distance and migration

routes

  • Labour markets
  • Asylum systems (?)
  • But above all existing communities and

„migrant networks“

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18 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Irregular migration and Irregular migration and migrant networks in Sweden migrant networks in Sweden

Relationship of stocks of legally present foreigners and shares of apprehended illegal aliens present (in % of total, Sweden, 2001)

R2 = 0,8886

  • 5,0%

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0% % share of stock of foreign nationals 2001 % of apprehended illegal aliens present 2001 Sources: Eurostat, CIREFI

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19 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Diversity of Conditions for Diversity of Conditions for Irregular Migrants in Europe Irregular Migrants in Europe

Southern European Countries „Island Modell“ Western European „Welfare States“ New EU Member States The „Nordic Model“

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20 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Irregular migration and Irregular migration and asylum in Sweden asylum in Sweden

Irregular Migration and Asylum in Sweden 2001

  • Appreh. illegal aliens present

Asylum seekers Total 15.288 23.515 Iraq 4.140 6.206 Yugoslavia 2.713 3.102 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.967 2.775 Russian Federation 526 841 Iran 436 780 Afghanistan 431 593 Stateless 426 588 Somalia 405 525 Macedonia 346 n.a. Uzbekistan 303 n.a. Others 3.595 8.105 Sources: CIREFI, Migrationsverket

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21 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Irregular migration and Irregular migration and asylum in Sweden asylum in Sweden

Relationship of shares of asylum seekers and shares of apprehended illegal aliens present (in % of total, Sweden, 2001)

R2 = 0,9756

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% % of all asylum seekers 2001 % of apprehended illegal aliens present 2001 Sources: CIREFI, Migrationsverket

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22 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

The Role of Human Smuggling in The Role of Human Smuggling in Illegal Migration Processes Today Illegal Migration Processes Today

Human Smuggling accounts for a large and growing share of illegal migration Police authorities estimate the share

  • f „facilitated entries“ at 30%-80%
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23 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Human Smuggling Networks Human Smuggling Networks and Division of Tasks and Division of Tasks

The division of work of smuggling organizations can be characterised as follows: · Recruiters · Organisers · Consigners · Transporters · Guides · Falsifiers · Hosts

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24 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

A Schematic Model of Human Smuggling A Schematic Model of Human Smuggling

En route: Transit Origin: Recruitment

Social Reality Family Friends Acquaintances Social background Income opportunities Migrant Recruitment Services:

  • Advertising
  • Contact & Trust
  • - Information & Guidance
  • - Credit & Enforcement
  • - Documents

Border Crossing

  • green border
  • blue border
  • Air
  • stowaway
  • documents
  • bribery
  • Management
  • Finance
  • Transport/Guidance
  • Networking, etc.

SMUGGLERS

Transit Services:

  • Transport
  • Shelter/Assembly Places
  • - Re-grouping
  • - Routing
  • Documents (faked, forged,

genuine, arranged) Horizontal Services: Money transfers, coordination, enforcement, etc. Social Reality Income Opportunities: Black & Grey Economy Asylum System Migrant Networks Migrant

  • Intelligence
  • Transport
  • Insertion
  • Documents, etc..

SMUGGLERS

Insertion Services:

  • Shelter & Link-up
  • - Work (black & grey market,

Seasonal work, illicit activities Illegal activities)

  • Documents (visa,

Residence permits)

  • etc.

Border Crossing

  • green border
  • blue border
  • Air
  • stowaway
  • documents
  • bribery
  • Recruitment
  • Transport/Guidance
  • Enforcement, etc..

SMUGGLERS

Migrant Migrant Networks Subsistence Strategies: Black & Grey Economy Asylum System

Destination: Insertion

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25 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Smuggling fees Smuggling fees

Typical smuggling fees from the country of origin to a Schengen country are: From China to Europe from 10,000 - to 15,000+ USD From Pakistan and India up to 8,000 € .. From Ukraine, depending on the type, 5,000-10,000 €, From Moldova to West Europe 1,500-2,000 €, From Serbia and Montenegro up to 3,000 €, On the other hand, short distance crossings can be cheaper..

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26 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

The problem with the Human The problem with the Human Smuggling Industry Smuggling Industry

  • Undermines state sovereignty
  • Criminal networks
  • Public perceptions

growth of xenophobic, populist parties further restricts room for legal migration

  • Loss of time and money for smuggled migrants
  • Disregard for human rights and high danger to

live

  • Risk of exploitation
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27 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Human Smuggling: Human Smuggling: Counterstrategies Counterstrategies

  • Penal law
  • Readmission programs
  • Technical improvements
  • Cross-border cooperation against

crime

  • Cooperation with Source Countries
  • „Economic strategy“: raising costs
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28 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Economic Strategies for Migration Control

Demand Side Measures Supply Side Measures Intermediary Measures

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29 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies I migration policies I

The structure of the human smuggling industry..

  • Gives flexibility
  • Provides local know-how
  • Prevents its defeat
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30 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies II migration policies II

State reactions to irregular migration can be:

  • Preventive
  • Accomodating
  • Reversive

A „comprehensive policy“ needs all three types

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31 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies III migration policies III

Human smugglers often explicitely target loopholes in the migration/asylum system

  • ..by instructing irregular migrants
  • ..using the reception system
  • ..providing „realistic“ stories for sale
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32 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies IV migration policies IV

Irregular migration today, is in many cases, extremely expensive for the migrants

  • ..and usually involves debt
  • ..which makes a positive outcome

essential..

  • ..and creates vulnerabilities
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33 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies V migration policies V

The high investments needed to pay smugglers

  • ..creates multiple obligations..
  • ..creates financial obligations and

burdens (high remittances can

  • bstruct integration)
  • .. makes (forced) return a „non-
  • ption“
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34 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies VI migration policies VI

Human smugglers, in turn, face the problem of extracting high prices for their services in return for an uncertain outcome..

  • ..need to create trust and reputation
  • ..„guaranteed smuggling“ services
  • ..repeated enty attempts
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35 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies VII migration policies VII

Irregular migration projects have become lengthier and more risky for many

  • ..journeys can take months, even

years..

  • ..frequent stops in transit countries
  • ..smuggled migrants are younger than

regular migrants (sometimes minors)..

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36 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

Some implications for Some implications for migration policies VIII migration policies VIII

Human smuggling can lead to unintended migration outcomes

  • When smugglers decide destination..
  • Dublin Agreement may be

counterproductive for integration efforts..

  • ..when migrants later decide/need to

move on.

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37 Gothenburg, 24 October 2005

The End.. The End..

Thank you for your attention!

Contact: Michael Jandl michael.jandl@icmpd.org