Investor Presentation October 2017 Gold Creek Montney 11 02 Battery - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor Presentation October 2017 Gold Creek Montney 11 02 Battery - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor Presentation October 2017 Gold Creek Montney 11 02 Battery Full cycle, fully engaged ADVISORY REGARDING FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains certain forward looking information and statements with respect


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SLIDE 1

Investor Presentation

October 2017

“Full cycle, fully engaged”

Gold Creek Montney 11‐02 Battery

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SLIDE 2

ADVISORY REGARDING FORWARD‐LOOKING STATEMENTS

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This presentation contains certain forward‐looking information and statements with respect to Velvet Energy Ltd. (“Velvet” or the “Company”), including expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions, information and statements about future events, conditions, results of operations, performance, Velvet’s planned capital expenditure program and the nature of the expenditures, drilling plans, expected drilling and completion costs, expected average production, the expected splits among crude oil, NGLs and natural gas, forecasted commodity prices and factors affecting natural gas prices, forecasted general and administrative expenses, interest expenses, revenue, operating income, operating netbacks, funds from operations and year‐end bank debt, management’s assessment of future potential, including years of drilling inventory and expectations with respect to natural gas demand and supply in North America.. These forward‐looking statements are based on assumptions and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the Company’s control, including the impact of general economic conditions; industry conditions; volatility of commodity prices; currency exchange rates; imprecision of reserve estimates; environmental risks; competition from other explorers; stock market volatility; oil and natural gas development and transportation; actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government regulation, royalties and taxation; dependence upon compressors, gathering lines, pipelines and other facilities, certain of which the Company does not control; shortage or lack of available of pipeline capacity or other transportation facilities; weather conditions, natural disasters and fires; and ability to access sufficient capital. We caution that the foregoing list of risks and uncertainties is not exhaustive. The use of any of the words “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward‐looking information or statements Statements relating to “reserves” or “resources” are deemed to be forward‐looking statements as they involve the implied assessment, based on current estimates and assumptions that the reserves and resources can be profitably produced in the future. Readers are cautioned that disclosure of any well test results is not necessarily indicative of long‐term performance. Velvet’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward‐looking statements. No assurance can be given that any events anticipated herein will transpire or occur and such forward‐looking statements included in this presentation should not be unduly relied upon. In addition, the reader is cautioned that historical results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The forward‐looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and the Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless expressly required by applicable securities laws. Certain information set out herein may be considered as “financial outlook” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers with disclosure regarding Velvet’s reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the periods indicated. Readers are cautioned that the financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.

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SLIDE 3

VELVET ENERGY LTD. – A GEOSCIENCE DRIVEN, ORGANIC GROWTH COMPANY

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“Velvet is an organic growth company. We apply best‐in‐class geoscience and commercial skill to build large and contiguous tracts of land in, and adjacent to,

  • il‐window source rocks. State‐of‐the‐art

prospecting, drilling, completions, and production methods allow us to generate top decile economic returns”

Velvet Edson Core 550 net sections Gold Creek Montney 245 net sections

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SLIDE 4

VELVET DIFFERENTIATORS

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  • Highly technical, geoscience driven team
  • Accountable and engaged in decision making process

People Assets Returns Access to Capital

  • Dominant player in the oil and liquids window of the Deep Basin
  • Rigorous application of technology for continuous improvement
  • Strong track record of top decile returns and organic growth
  • Risk management central to full cycle return philosophy
  • Solid foundation of PE support
  • Strategic relationship with term debt providers
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SLIDE 5

TRACK RECORD OF ORGANIC GROWTH

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  • Over 90% of current production has

been added via the drill bit

  • Disciplined acquisition strategy that

targets hurdle rate of return on Multiple

  • n Invested Capital (MOIC)
  • Vero 2011
  • Lightstream 2014
  • Bonavista 2017
  • Continue to improve Edson full cycle

E&D capex efficiency with objective to reduce to below $14k/boe/d Daily Production

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Capex ($mm) $39.5 $242.8 $110.7 $245.4 $108.3 $150.2 EBITDA ($mm) $24.4 $37.3 $87.3 $85.4 $84.6 Edson Wells drilled (G / N) 5 / 4.7 11 / 7.1 26 / 20.1 33 / 26.3 19 / 12.5 25/17.9 Success rate* (%) 79 80 92 82 92 94 2P FD&A cost ($/boe)** $33.51 $15.73 $13.22 $14.52 $14.33 $9.85

Note on acquisitions: 2012 capex included $195mm net acquisitions; $85mm in 2014 * Success rate is post completion ** FD&A includes change in FDC

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Corporate Production (BOED)

Vero Acq 2012 2013 LTS Acq 2014 2015 2016 2017 Dev Montney

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SLIDE 6

MANAGEMENT & DIRECTORS

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Ken Woolner, P.Eng, President & CEO Geoff MacDonald, P. Geol, Vice President, Exploration Jeremy Kwasnecha, P.Eng, Vice President, Operations George Gervais, P. Eng., MBA, Executive Vice President Chris Theal, CFA, CIM, Chief Financial Officer Peter Henry, CA, Vice President, Finance Ken Woolner, P.Eng, President & CEO John Brussa, Partner, Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP Vincent Chahley, Independent Businessman Robert E. Hougie, 1901 Partners LP Jacob Strauss, Warburg Pincus Harvey Doerr, Independent Businessman Roger Smith, Independent Businessman Christopher R. Manning, Trilantic Capital Partners David B. Krieger, Warburg Pincus MANAGEMENT BOARD OF DIRECTORS

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SLIDE 7
  • Firm‐service & long‐term

planning

  • Innovative risk‐sharing midstream

partnerships

  • Focus on controllables through

the entire value chain

  • Scale affords cost savings and

leverages technology gains

  • Grassroots play generation
  • Data intensive analysis
  • Constant refining & integration of

G&G model

  • Target hurdle rate IRRs
  • Margin maximization vs. price

taker

EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT IN VALUE CREATION

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“PROFITABLY converting undeveloped land to PDP provides greatest opportunity for value creation”

TECHNICAL DIFFERENTIATION MARKET ACCESS COST CONTROL HEDGING STRATEGY

RATE OF RETURN INVESTING

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SLIDE 8

VELVET EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO

  • Our base business in the Ellerslie has been

recognized as the low supply cost play in the Deep Basin by third parties

  • While we continue to grow the Ellerslie, we are

also adding and advancing prospects across the risk/entry cost spectrum:

  • Strong results from stack drilling in 1H2017
  • First oil in the Montney at Gold Creek
  • New areas being acquired & evaluated
  • Low cost capture of higher risk prospects

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Velvet Exploration & Development Portfolio

Conceptual Exploratory Development Exploitation

Play Maturity

Edson Ellerslie Edson stack

Relative Technical Risk

Gold Creek Montney RPC RPC RPC

RPC = Resource Play Concept

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SLIDE 9

Edson Ellerslie Hybrid Resource Play – High Return Base Business

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SLIDE 10

VELVET’S DEEP BASIN FAIRWAY

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1. Abundant Data

  • Thousands of feet thick
  • Thousands of penetrations since 1950’s

2. No Water

  • Basin‐centered Petroleum System
  • Relative over‐pressure

3. Condensate/Volatile Oil Prone

  • Local oil‐mature sources
  • Gas via migration

4. High IP and EUR

  • Porosity and Permeability preserved
  • Water Saturations misleading
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SLIDE 11

ELLERSLIE: THE DISCOVERY

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1000 Boe/d 500 Bbl/d

UNCONVENTIONAL APPROACH:

16‐14‐50‐13W5 (hz): 55 months: 3.5 Bcf, 195 mstb NGL, 214 mstb Oil

990 MBOE

55 months

CONVENTIONAL APPROACH:

11‐14‐50‐13W5 (vt): 16 years, 396 Mmcf

100mcf/d 16 years

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SLIDE 12

A’

4‐33‐55‐17W5 2‐3‐53‐14W5 11‐14‐50‐13W5

A

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Core from hundreds of wells were analyzed

  • Consistent preservation of porosity and

permeability along the fairway = repeatable results Production on hundreds of vertical wells was analyzed

  • Horizontal wells demonstrate a significant multiple
  • f vertical well performance

500 um

4‐33‐55‐17W5

Porosity: 9%; Perm: 2.5 mD Offset Vt in 7 yrs: 0.137 bcf, 11 mstb Offset Hz in 36months:

371 MBOE (1.6 BCF, 69 MStb)

500 um

2‐3‐53‐14W5

Porosity: 7.8%; Perm: 0.4 mD Offset Vt in 16 yrs: 0.98 bcf, 30 mstb oil Offset Hz in 41 months:

655 MBOE (2.7Bcf, 131MStb)

500 um

11‐14‐50‐13W5

Porosity: 14.2%; Perm: 1.0 mD Offset Vt in 16 yrs: 0.39 bcf Offset Hz in 44 months:

990 MBOE (3.5 Bcf, 214 MStb)

VEL Lower Mannville VEL 3D Seismic Images on right Shallow marine sand fairway

AN EXTENSIVE FAIRWAY

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SLIDE 13

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EDSON ELLERSLIE & STACK DRILLING INVENTORY

Edson Land and Ellerslie Resource Mapping

  • Velvet maximizes value on every one of its 353,026

net acres

  • Depth of inventory from a depth of understanding
  • multi‐zone potential in deep basin‐centered

petroleum system

  • synergies drive attractive half‐cycle economics
  • 157 mmboe of potential EUR in the Ellerslie

*Land as at September 30, 2017. Inventory numbers as of June 30, 2017

Play IRR (%) NPV10 ($mm) Current Inventory (G / N) Ellerslie 106 2.87 543/380 Notikewin / Falher 1‐mile 44 1.32 118/79 Wilrich Bayfill 1‐mile 47 1.64 102/77 Wilrich Shoreface TBD TBD 142/94 Bluesky 64 2.37 67 / 45 Rock Creek TBD TBD 51 / 31 Total Deep Basin 1,022/ 707

2017 Ellerslie Locations 2018 Ellerslie Locations 2019 Ellerslie Locations

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SLIDE 14
  • Drilled 96 gross, 68.2 net ELRL wells

to‐date

  • DCET budget of $3.3MM for
  • perated wells in 2017
  • $3.19MM average capex for
  • perated wells in 9M2017
  • 2017 program:
  • 33 gross (24.9 net) total wells
  • 80% Ellerslie / 20% stack
  • Velvet controls gathering and

processing infrastructure

  • Optimize facility throughput to

minimize unit operating costs

  • Acquired & filling 16‐36 at McLeod
  • Focus on filling & optimizing

facility throughput

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ELLERSLIE PIPELINE, GATHERING & FACILITIES CONTROL

Ellerslie Locations Only

Repsol 4‐11 285 mmcf/d Velvet 16‐23 (100%) 23 mmcf/d ISH 10‐12 (1%) 23 mmcf/d Notine 7‐34 21 mmcf/d Velvet 12‐15 (100%) 29 mmcf/d Keyera 11‐10 (40%) 50 mmcf/d Velvet 8‐36 (72%) 23 mmcf/d Velvet 8‐6 (100%) 12 mmcf/d Pine Cliff 16‐12 (40%) 16 mmcf/d Velvet 9‐4 (100%) 10 mmcf/d Tidewater 4‐31 185 mmcf/d Velvet 16‐36 (55%) 14 mmcf/d

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SLIDE 15

Continuous Improvement Yields Higher Returns

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VELVET ELLERSLIE – CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

16 5 10 15 20 25 200 400 600 800 1000 2013 2014 2015 2016 ‐ H12016 ‐ H2 Stages Total TNE

Ellerslie Stage & Tonnage Trends

Total TNE Total Stages 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 100 200 300 400 500

2013 2014 2015 2016 ‐ H1 2016 ‐ H2

Total LB (000s) LB/ft

Ellerslie Proppant Intensity Trends

LB/ft Total Lb/well

$2.80 $2.35 $1.96 $1.62 $1.62 $1.60 $1.23 $1.28 $0.98 $1.10 $0.80 $1.05 $0.99 $0.65 $0.62 $0.62 $0.62 $0.65 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Gross Well Cost (DCET $MM)

Ellerslie Well Cost

DRILL COMPLETE EQUIP/TIE $5.03 $4.28 $3.56 $3.34 $3.30 $3.04 * 2016 normalized for tonnage 22.0 18.6 13.3 10.1 7.6 9.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 BEST 2017 TARGET Spud to Rig Release

Ellerslie Drilling Days

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SLIDE 17

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00

PEY AAV PMT TOU BIR BNP CR VEL w/o MTG ARX VEL w MTG CKE PNE BXE VII CQE ERF SRX BTE TVE VET GTE WCP POU KEL RRX PGF TOG BNE NVA DEE JOY SGY CPG GXE OBE MQX SPE PXX CJ

% Liquids $/boe 2018 Opex + Transport 2018 % Liquids

PEER GROUP OPEX + TRANSPORTATION COST – 2018E

  • As Montney grows, Velvet maintains a top quartile Opex + Tport cost structure
  • Similarly weighted liquids‐rich Montney peers Opex + Tport average $12.28/boe (KEL, POU, NVA, DEE, VII)
  • VEL at $9.15/boe in 2018

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2018 Opex + Transportation Cost vs. Liquids Weight

Source: Peters & Co research Peters restricted on VII; VII 1H17 was $10.21/boe

Comparable liquids weights VEL

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SLIDE 18

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Raw Oil Equivalent Production (boe/d)

Months

Average (47 Wells) ELRL Type Curve

ELLERSLIE TYPE CURVES & ECONOMICS

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Assumes AECO C$2.40/Gj. Sales volumes with shrinkage of 10%. Alberta Royalty Framework

IRR vs. Price Sensitivities EUR, IRR and Payout

IP30 EUR Gas (mmcf/d : bcf) 2.4 1.7 Oil (bbl/d : mbbl) 197 70 C3+ (bbl/mmcf : mboe) 98 67 Total (boe/d : mboe) 699 412 % Liquids 42% 33% DCET Cost mm 3.25 Chance of Success % 100 Payout yrs 1.3 RoR % 93 NPV10 mm 2.57 PV10 mm 5.82 F&D per boe 7.88 1 2 3 4 5 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70

NPV10 ($MM) IRR (%) WTI Oil Price ($/bbl)

Type Curve ‐ IRR Type Curve ‐ NPV10

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SLIDE 19

VELVET ELLERSLIE IS THE LOWEST DEEP BASIN SUPPLY COST

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Source: RS Energy Group, November 2016

  • Third party research: “Velvet’s Ellerslie, a liquids‐rich zone, has the lowest
  • perator zone breakeven at $1.97/mcfe HH”
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SLIDE 20

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  • Independent research ranks Velvet Ellerslie (Pembina) as a top five BT IRR play in North

America

VELVET ELLERSLIE RELATIVE RATE OF RETURN

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SLIDE 21

Gold Creek Montney – Unlocking the Oil Window

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SLIDE 22

APPLYING LEADING EDGE TECHNOLOGY TO OPEN MONTNEY LIGHT OIL WINDOW

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Early adoption of leading‐edge technology

  • Benchmark D&C learnings from Permian analogs
  • 3D seismic, core, LWD, microseismic, tracer technology
  • Translate multi‐parameter maps into fully‐integrated

geological model Continuous improvement to establish top return oil play

  • Reservoir model allows us to understand well design,
  • rientation, placement and completion
  • Optimize recoveries and mitigate geologic risks
  • Generate capital and operating cost efficiencies
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SLIDE 23

GOLD CREEK MONTNEY

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TCPL/NOVA

MERITAGE PATTERSON CREEK

VELVET 11‐2 PAD:

  • BATTERY: 16,000 BBLS/d, 25,000 mmcf/d
  • ON‐SITE DISPOSAL WELL
  • 12‐10 ON PRODUCTION
  • 4 WELLS COMING ONSTREAM Q4/17
  • SPUD 5 WELL PAD Q4/17

VEL 4‐1 PAD:

  • 1‐10 ON PRODUCTION

VEL 11‐5 PAD:

  • 15‐7 ON PRODUCTION

CNRL GOLD CREEK CNRL WAPITI

VELVET ADVANTAGE Land: 245 net sections Geoscience:

  • > 500m core
  • 5 wells microseismic
  • 58 mi2 proprietary 3D

VELVET 3D SEISMIC PIPELINE VELVET WELLS MONTNEY WELLS

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SLIDE 24

CORPORATE INFORMATION

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Auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP Reservoir Engineers GLJ Petroleum Consultants Bankers Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Royal Bank of Canada Bank of Montreal The Toronto‐Dominion Bank Solicitors Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP Velvet Energy Ltd. 1500, 308 4th Avenue SW Calgary, AB T2P 0H7 P: 403.781.9125 Investor contacts: investors@velvetenergy.ca

www.velvetenergy.ca