Introduction The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

March 1, 2007

Introduction

• The Public Building Authority (PBA) and the

Knoxville/Knox County Metropolitan Planning Commission (MPC) comprise the Partnership for Education Facilities Assessment (PEFA).

• PEFA worked with the Loudon County Mayor’s Office,

Lenoir City Schools, and Loudon County Schools to evaluate education facility needs.

March 1, 2007

Introduction

Project Components

• Overview of recent trends in public school enrollment,

demographics, and land development in Loudon County.

• Countywide, school-by-school, and bus zone enrollment

projections.

• Comparison of enrollments (actual and projected) to

facility capacities.

• Assessment of physical condition of all public school

buildings.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

Countywide Enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07

• Total enrollment in regular day classes across Loudon

County (including Lenoir City) showed average annual increase of 1.1 percent in past 5 years, reaching 7,200 students this year.

• Elementary schools (K-5) combined for a 6.6 percent

increase since 2002/03.

• High schools added 3.4 percent, while middle school

grades gained a modest 2.2 percent in five years.

March 1, 2007

COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2002/03-2006/07

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

School Year Enrollment

Elementary (K-5) Middle (6-8) High (9-12)

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

Pre-School Enrollment

• Enrollments DO NOT INCLUDE pre-school, currently

comprising about 250 children countywide.

• Children are not required to attend pre-school.
• Many private pre-kindergarten opportunities exist in

Loudon County.

• Not practical to model decision-making processes of

families in terms of pre-school participation.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

Pre-School Enrollment

• Although enrollments were excluded, classroom space

dedicated to pre-school education was addressed.

• Rooms assigned to pre-school instruction were set aside

and reserved for future pre-school use, not re-assigned to current or future K-12 enrollments.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

Out-Of-County (OOC) Enrollment

• In 2002/03, OOC students totaled nearly 700, about 10

percent of countywide enrollment.

• That number dropped to just under 600 students this

year, when OOC policy changed.

• OOC students no longer allowed to transfer into Loudon

system unless: – they are children of school employees. – they have sibling currently attending same school in which they would be eligible to enroll.

• OOC students already in system can remain through

graduation.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

General Population Trends

• Between 1990 and 2000, Loudon County’s population

grew at an average annual increase of 2.5 percent.

• In past five years, pace slowed to 2.2 percent growth

annually, with total population currently at 43,387.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

General Population Trends

• School-age children (5-19 years old) steadily lost shares
• f total population between 1980 and 2000, dropping

from 24 percent of total to 18 percent.

• Population 55 years and over grew 4.7 percent per year

during 1990s.

• By 2020, the number of persons aged 55 years and over

will increase to 22,300, representing nearly 40 percent

• f the county population.

March 1, 2007

Demographic Trends

Sources of Population Growth

• Migration was primary determinant of population

growth in past six years.

• Domestic rather than international migration.
• More than 8,600 current residents are new to Loudon

County, having lived in a different county or state in 1995.

March 1, 2007 LOUDON COUNTY NET MIGRATION, 2001-2005

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Net Migration Total Net Migration 5-Year Average (822)

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Recent Rates of New Home Construction

• Pace of residential construction activity accelerated

during 1990s in Loudon County.

• First half of 1990s: average of 406 new homes

constructed annually, which was double the rate recorded in the 1980s.

• Second half of 1990s: pace increased again, with 508

homes built each year.

• Rates have remained at that level for the past six

years.

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Recreation/Retirement-Oriented Development

• Loudon County is rapidly growing as center for

lifestyles oriented to lakefront, golf, luxury, and retirement living, evidenced by large-scale residential projects like Tellico Village and Rarity Bay.

• 5,800 building lots approved in Tellico Village, with

about 2,800 homes currently in place.

• Thousands more homesites platted: Tennessee

National (1,700 sites), Rarity Pointe (1,200 sites), and, currently under review, Rarity Landings (1,500 sites).

• Expecting few families with school-age children.

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Conventional Development

• Growth areas include recently-sewered corridor of

northeast Loudon County and an area northwest of Lenoir City.

• Several subdivisions platted or underway.
• Expecting many families with school-age children.

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Conventional Development

• Development in the identified single-family growth

areas has averaged about 105 new homes per year since 2000.

• Placement of sewer lines likely to accelerate

residential construction, but growth controls (impact fees) might offset gains if developers balk at additional building costs.

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Student Yields

• Very few families that purchase homes in

recreation/retirement/luxury developments have children of school-age.

• Fewer than 100 school-age children in Tellico Village.
• Tellico Village: 0.03 school children per housing unit.

Equates to 3 children for every 100 homes.

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Student Yields In conventional housing developments:

• Detached units generate 0.494 children under 18 years
• f age, per unit.
• Attached (townhomes/condominiums): 0.160
• Apartments: 0.689
• Mobile homes: 0.725

March 1, 2007

Development Trends

Student Yields - Example

• Detached housing yield of 0.494 children per unit.
• 100 new detached homes: approximately 49 children

expected.

• Does not mean that 49 children will enter public school

system.

• 25 percent of those children will be under age 5.
• 4.8 percent, on average, will be homeschooled or will

attend some form of private education.

• Original generation of 49 children will net about 35

children that will likely enter public school.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

Series of 10-year projections (2007-2016) for Loudon County and Lenoir City schools

• Three scales of reporting:

– countywide. – school-by-school. – bus zones.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

Growth Scenarios

• Baseline:

– Assumed growth trends of past five years will continue over next 10 years. – Births will grow in number, but at slow pace.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

Growth Scenarios

• Moderate:

– Assumed in-migration will be consistent with past two years and continue over next 10 years. – There will be more kindergartners than births (five years earlier) over next 10 years. – Births will increase moderately over next 10 years.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

Growth Scenarios

• Accelerated:

– Same as moderate for migration and kindergartners. – Births will increase over next 10 years. – Residential construction in northeast portion of county and northwest Lenoir City will grow faster than previous years.

March 1, 2007

Enrollment Projections

Methodology Summary The 10-year enrollment projection model relied on the following data:

• Actual school enrollment, 2002/03-2006/07.
• Grade progression ratios, 2002/03-2006/07.
• Actual births, 1990-2004.
• Projected births, 2005-2011.
• Kindergarten-to-birth ratios, 2002/03-2006/07.
• Residential growth factor.

March 1, 2007

Countywide Projections

14.9 321 2474 Projected: Accelerated 9.7 209 2362 Projected: Moderate 7.7 166 2319 Projected: Baseline 2153 Current enrollment HIGH (Grades 9-12) 10.6 184 1911 Projected: Accelerated 6.3 109 1836 Projected: Moderate 3.9 68 1795 Projected: Baseline 1727 Current enrollment MIDDLE (Grades 6-8) 11.0 370 3720 Projected: Accelerated 7.1 237 3587 Projected: Moderate 4.4 149 3499 Projected: Baseline 3350 Current enrollment ELEMENTARY (Grades K-5) 12.1 874 8104 Projected: Accelerated 7.7 555 7785 Projected: Moderate 5.3 383 7613 Projected: Baseline 7230 Current enrollment COUNTYWIDE 2006-2016 2006-2016 2016/17 2006/07 Year % Growth Growth Enrollment Enrollment

March 1, 2007

COUNTYWIDE ENROLLMENT: ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

School Year Enrollment

Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario

March 1, 2007

ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRADES (K-5): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

School Year Enrollment

Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario

March 1, 2007

MIDDLE SCHOOL GRADES (6-8): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

School Year Enrollment

Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario

March 1, 2007

HIGH SCHOOL GRADES (9-12): ACTUAL ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS, 2002/03-2016/17

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

School Year Enrollment

Actual Enrollment Baseline Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Accelerated Growth Scenario

March 1, 2007

School-By-School Projections

(Accelerated Growth)

SCHOOL-BY-SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17 ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO

8102 7668 7229 Total 868 786 717 Loudon HS 1369 1323 1194 Lenoir City HS 921 880 857 North MS 423 403 375 Lenoir City MS 458 451 383 Fort Loudoun MS 724 678 684 Greenback 514 520 526 Philadelphia ES 271 252 237 Steekee ES 579 549 512 Loudon ES 706 651 612 Lenoir City ES 486 450 418 Highland Park ES 782 724 713 Eaton ES 2016/17 2011/12 2006/07 School

March 1, 2007

Bus Zone Projections

(Accelerated Growth)

BUS ZONE ENROLLMENT, 2006/07-2016/17 ACCELERATED GROWTH SCENARIO

8103 7669 7229 Total 854 789 771 Greenback 601 586 617 Philadelphia 682 649 677 Steekee 1378 1290 1052 Loudon 1681 1580 1416 Lenoir City 1213 1118 1056 Highland Park 1694 1657 1640 Eaton 2016/17 2011/12 2006/07 Bus Zone

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

School System’s Ability to Serve its Population Over-Capacity:

• Class sizes exceed accepted teacher-pupil ratios;

inability to adequately provide support services (cafeteria, parking, site access); auditoriums, gymnasiums, libraries, storage rooms serve as classroom space.

• Requires hiring of additional faculty.
• Portable classrooms, building wings, entire facilities

might be needed.

• Conditions of distraction and disruption, a poor

environment for learning.

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

School System’s Ability to Serve its Population Under-Capacity:

• Inefficient to operate physical plant that is not fully

utilized.

• Often unable to offer courses, programs, and extra-

curricular activities available at fully-utilized facilities.

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

Floor Area Capacity (Square Footage Per Student)

• Often used by architects when designing new facilities.
• Ratio of number of students to total building floor area.
• Ratio compared to adopted standards: 150 square feet

per elementary student, 170 sf per middle schooler, and 190 sf for high school students.

• Mechanistic standard, detached from important

programmatic considerations.

• Modern measures applied to facilities built decades ago

when different sets of building/campus elements were considered important.

• Useful to evaluate expansions or new facilities.

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

Design Capacity

• Count number of classrooms in school and multiply by

maximum class size (standard teacher-pupil ratio).

• Limited by lack of attention to program-specific

facilities.

• Curriculum-neutral: allows administrators flexibility

when evaluating building space. During shortages, look at raw inventories to see how much room is available, irrespective of classroom use; adjustments made to programs as necessary to meet space demands.

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

Functional Capacity

• Accommodates school curriculum.
• Current usage of educational program space and pre-

determined number of students assigned to each space (based on pupil-teacher ratios) comprise basic formula.

• According to school administrators, a more realistic

measure of capacity.

• Lower than design capacity: excludes floor area

dedicated to special uses and incorporates utilization factor that further reduces carrying capacity, under rationale that scheduling requirements make it impossible to assign students to all teaching stations every period of every day.

March 1, 2007

Facility Capacity

Capacity Thresholds

• If facility has reached 100 percent or more of its design
• r functional capacity, it is fully occupied.
• Professional educators warn that when enrollments

reach 80 to 90 percent of design and functional limits, it’s time to start looking at future enrollments, potential space needs, and options to alleviate strains.

• Don’t wait until buildings are completely full before

taking action.

• This study uses 90 percent capacity threshold.

March 1, 2007

Findings

March 1, 2007

Findings

Current Conditions

• Eaton ES, Ft. Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, Lenoir City

ES facing functional capacity strains.

• Loudon ES exceeded functional capacity: 52-seat

shortage (2.1 classrooms). Also reached design capacity.

• All except Lenoir City MS show floor area shortages.

March 1, 2007

Findings

Current Conditions

• Countywide, 69% of design capacity for 12-school

system is in use.

• Countywide, 84% of functional capacity occupied.
• Shortages are result of uneven distribution of students

rather than lack of systemwide room to handle total enrollment.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND CURRENT ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2006/07

56.2 83.7 8632 7228 Total 3.3 74.1 320 237 Steekee ES 6.0 77.7 677 526 Philadelphia ES 7.0 83.0 1033 857 North MS 9.1 76.0 944 717 Loudon HS (2.1) 111.3 460 512 Loudon ES 6.3 70.6 531 375 Lenoir City MS 14.1 77.2 1547 1194 Lenoir City HS 0.9 96.4 635 612 Lenoir City ES 0.1 99.5 420 418 Highland Park ES 8.8 75.7 904 684 Greenback 0.2 99.0 387 383 Fort Loudoun MS 2.5 92.0 775 713 Eaton ES Surplus in Use (%) Capacity 2006/07 SCHOOL Shortage/ Capacity Functional Enrollment Classroom Functional

March 1, 2007

Findings

Future Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)

• Countywide enrollments will grow to 7,700 students:

more classroom shortages will emerge.

• Same five schools facing current pressures will see

strains worsen: functional capacity in use will exceed 100% at four facilities.

• Shortages will not be drastic, but additions of 10

classrooms will be necessary.

• Countywide total enrollment will push functional

capacity near 90% threshold.

March 1, 2007

Findings

Future Conditions – Five Years (2011/12)

• Loudon ES and Ft. Loudoun MS will have design capacity

deficiencies.

• All except Lenoir City MS will show floor area shortfalls.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 5-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2011/12

38.6 88.8 8632 7667 Total 2.7 78.8 320 252 Steekee ES 6.3 76.8 677 520 Philadelphia ES 6.1 85.2 1033 880 North MS 6.3 83.3 944 786 Loudon HS (3.6) 119.3 460 549 Loudon ES 5.1 75.9 531 403 Lenoir City MS 9.0 85.5 1547 1323 Lenoir City HS (0.6) 102.5 635 651 Lenoir City ES (1.2) 107.1 420 450 Highland Park ES 9.0 75.0 904 678 Greenback (2.6) 116.6 387 451 Fort Loudoun MS 2.0 93.4 775 724 Eaton ES Surplus in Use (%) Capacity 2011/12 SCHOOL Shortage/ Capacity Functional Enrollment Classroom Functional

March 1, 2007

Findings

Future conditions – Ten Years (2016/17)

• By 2016, six schools will experience functional capacity

shortages: the five schools identified as immediate and five-year pressure points, plus Loudon HS.

• 12-school system will exceed functional capacity

threshold of 90%, hitting nearly 94% in use with its 8,100 students.

• Total of 15 classrooms will be needed.
• Fort Loudoun MS, Highland Park ES, and Loudon ES will

have design capacity shortages.

• All 12 schools will fail in floor area standards.

SCHOOL CAPACITY AND 10-YEAR PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISONS: 2016/17

21.2 93.8 8632 8101 Total 2.0 84.7 320 271 Steekee ES 6.5 76.0 677 514 Philadelphia ES 4.5 89.2 1033 921 North MS 3.0 92.0 944 868 Loudon HS (4.8) 125.9 460 579 Loudon ES 4.3 79.6 531 423 Lenoir City MS 7.1 88.5 1547 1369 Lenoir City HS (2.8) 111.2 635 706 Lenoir City ES (2.6) 115.7 420 486 Highland Park ES 7.2 80.1 904 724 Greenback (2.9) 118.4 387 458 Fort Loudoun MS (0.3) 100.9 775 782 Eaton ES Surplus in Use (%) Capacity 2016/17 SCHOOL Shortage/ Capacity Functional Enrollment Classroom Functional

March 1, 2007

Findings

Pre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity

• Pre-school classrooms set aside from facility capacity

calculations and reserved for current pre-school enrollments.

• Classrooms not re-assigned for K-12 use.
• School officials contend pre-school education will

become increasingly pressing issue in terms of space demands in next few years, especially if Governor’s Office opens public school systems to all four-year-old children.

March 1, 2007

Findings

Pre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity

• Currently 252 pre-school children in Loudon County and

Lenoir City.

• According to population projections, there will be

about 575 four-year-olds living in Loudon County by 2015.

March 1, 2007

Findings

Pre-School Classrooms and Facility Capacity

• In next 10 years, if it is assumed all 4-year-olds will be

provided pre-school instruction, and maximum room size remains at 20 children, there will be need for 29 pre-school classrooms.

• 17 pre-K classrooms currently in place.
• 12 additional rooms will be needed.
• Allocate additional rooms across seven facilities
• ffering elementary instruction (roughly two additional

classrooms per ES).

March 1, 2007

Physical Assessment

March 1, 2007

Physical Assessment

Properties Inspected

• 13 facilities assessed in November 2006:

– 3 Lenoir City schools. – 9 Loudon County schools, plus Professional Development Center.

• Assessments performed by experts in fields of

architecture, mechanical, and electrical systems, hired by PBA.

March 1, 2007

Bonding Capacity

• Currently no available bond capacity at the existing

tax rate.

• Provision of additional bond capacity to fund school

construction would require a tax increase.

March 1, 2007

www.knoxmpc.org

Downloads:

• Enrollment projections and school capacities report.
• Physical assessment report.
• Presentation.