Introduction Frdric Kieffer Head of Retail Banking ING Luxembourg - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 1

ING Luxembourg

Introduction Frédéric Kieffer Head of Retail Banking

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 2

Le logement fait la une des journaux

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 3

Enquête Statec sur les principales préoccupations des électeurs en 2013 par rapport à 2018

44% 26% 27% 9% 17% 15% 2% 23% 46% 35% Marché du logement Mobilité Education Chômage / Emploi Rentes et pensions

Thèmes importants des élections

2013 2018

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 4

Evolution de la population au Grand-Duché de Luxembourg

1 Source : United Nations - Population Division

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 5

Evolution de la structure familiale

La taille moyenne des familles par logement diminue (nombre des divorces en augmentation, population vieillissante, etc.)  Même si la taille de population restait inchangée, le besoin en logements augmenterait.

3,13 2,83 2,66 2,51 2,41 2,2 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 1970 1981 1991 2001 2011 2030

Nombre de personnes par foyer

Estimation

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 6

L’offre de logement est insuffisante face à la demande

Prévision de la demande de logements Production annuelle de nouveaux logements

Prévisions pour 2010-2030 :

• Environ 4 000 nouveaux logements par an

+

• Environ 2 280 logements par an (reconversion)
• Total estimé de 6 300 nouveaux logements par an

La production de logements ne couvre pas la demande

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 7

15 1,000 14,725

Austria Belgium Czech Republic France Germany Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Romania Spain Turkey United Kingdom USA Australia

About the ING International Survey

The ING International Survey promotes a better understanding of how people around the globe spend, save, invest and feel about money. It is conducted several times a year, with reports hosted at www.ezonomics.com/iis. This online survey was carried out by Ipsos between 6 and 18 June 2018. Sampling reflects gender ratios and age distribution, selecting from pools of possible respondents furnished by panel providers in each

• country. European consumer figures are an

average, weighted to take country population into account. countries are compared in this report. about 1,000 respondents were surveyed in each, apart from Luxembourg, with 500. is the total sample size

• f this report.

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 8

In Luxembourg, people love to own their house/appartement

Country Owners Owners with mortgage

Luxembourg

69%

40% Belgium 60% 33% France 54% 28% Germany 36% 19%

OWN RENT Country Renters

Luxembourg

17%

Belgium 28% France 38% Germany 59%

Luxembourg nationality residents:

9%

Foreign residents

27%

In Europe a majority of people own without a mortgage, but this is not the case of Luxembourg where 40% own with a mortgage, and

• nly 29% own without a mortgage.

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 9 The question

In general, do you think that your country is on the right track or the wrong track when it comes to housing?

Asked to everyone.

More say Luxembourg is on the wrong track with housing

In 2017, we asked people in Europe, the USA and Australia if their country is on the right track on housing. Large shares (45% on average in Europe) felt their countries were on the wrong road. This year, once again many Europeans reply “I don’t know” (22%). This was a lower share than in 2017 (26%) – but this year more than half (53%) say their country is on the wrong track. More than half of Luxembourg residents believe that the country is

• n the wrong track when it comes to housing. Although the

percentage has increased compared to last year, the total percentage remains similar to the European level at 57%.

37% 30% 46% 26% 25% 26% 25% 29% 24% 29% 21% 29% 27% 27% 36% 35% 8 11% 21% 27% 32% 37% 29% 35% 24% 30% 23% 27% 16% 18% 22% 26% 36% 34% 29% 25% 39% 43% 35% 32% 33% 44% 29% 35% 28% 27% 24% 29% 23% 37% 23% 24% 22% 23% 20% 25% 19% 22% 18% 23% 17% 25% 25% 29% 27% 36% 25% 50% 35% 30% 39% 38% 43% 27% 49% 35% 45% 46% 40% 36% 69% 52% 56% 50% 46% 40% 51% 40% 57% 49% 59% 50% 68% 58% 53% 45%

2018 USA 2017 2018 Australia 2017 2018 Poland 2017 2018 Italy 2017 2018 Netherlands 2017 2018 Romania 2017 2018 Austria 2017 2018 Belgium 2017 2018 Turkey 2017 2018 United Kingdom 2017 2018 France 2017 2018 Czech Republic 2017 2018 Luxembourg 2017 2018 Germany 2017 2018 Spain 2017 2018 European consumer 2017 Sample size: 14,725 (2018), 14,811 (2017)

I don't know Right track I don't know Wrong track Wrong track Right track

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 10 The question

What characteristics do you think relate to housing in your country? Please select as many as you like.

Responses from Europe only. Those who neither rent nor own their home are excluded from the sample.

Housing = “expensive”

On average 57% in Europe say housing in their country is

• expensive. The largest share who say this is in Luxembourg

(82%) and the lowest in Italy (38%). In Luxembourg, both renters and buyers see housing as “expensive” (80% and 82%, respectively). However, owners and renters do not agree on the second characteristic: where renters see an unfair market, owners identify “high quality” as the second most important characteristic of the Luxembourg housing market. Naturally, home owners are more likely to say housing is an “investment opportunity” (34%) than renters (23%).

5% 2% 7% 12% 7% 8% 31% 23% 22% 80% 3% 4% 7% 9% 11% 12% 24% 34% 38% 82% Fair Affordable Beneficial Always changing Over-regulated Crowded Unfair Investment opportunity High quality Expensive Own Rent

Sample size: 513

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 11 The question

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

It might be harder now than ever to buy a home

In Luxembourg a majority of respondents, agree that it’s increasingly difficult to buy a home for newcomers in today’s housing market. Indeed, Luxembourg is the top country in Europe where respondents agree that the real estate market is becoming harder for newcomers. In 13 of 15 countries surveyed, more than half feel, furthermore, that the difficulty of getting on the so-called housing ladder has increased since 2015.

Chart shows shares who “agree” or “strongly agree”. Possible answers include “neither agree nor disagree”, “disagree”, “strongly disagree” or “don’t know”.

64% 78% 91% 86% 84% 82% 78% 74% 80% 72% 78% 66% 64% 57% 58% 72% 60% 75% 86% 84% 78% 76% 73% 71% 68% 67% 64% 59% 57% 50% 49% 65%

USA Australia Luxembourg Turkey United… Romania Belgium Netherlands Spain Italy Czech Republic Austria France Poland Germany European…

Sample size: 14,725

Since 2015, it has become harder for newcomers to the housing market to buy a house For newcomers to the housing market, it is increasingly difficult to buy a house

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 12 The question

Do you think house prices will rise or fall over the next twelve months where you live?

European consumer totals only. Answer choices were “rise sharply”, “rise slightly”, “stay the same”, “fall slightly”, “fall sharply”, or “don’t know”.

House prices tipped to keep rising in the next 12 months

The ING International Survey has asked Europeans about future house prices for six consecutive years. Higher shares in 2018 (63% in Europe, and 88% in Luxembourg) expect the cost of homes to increase over the next 12 months. Smaller shares than ever (7% in Europe) expect house prices to fall in the next 12 months, whether a little or a lot. In Luxembourg, the trend is even stronger, with the lowest share ever of respondents believing that prices will remain the same.

Is Europe positive on prices? Not everywhere

47% 53% 56% 56% 59% 63% 26% 26% 27% 28% 27% 24%

20% 14% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 70% 72% 76% 78% 86% 88% 22% 22% 18% 17% 11% 8% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rise Stay the same Fall I don't know Rise - Luxembourg Stay the same - Luxembourg Fall- Luxembourg I don't know- Luxembourg

Luxembourg Luxembourg Luxembourg Luxembourg Europe Europe Europe Sample size: 12,704 (2018) 12,796 (2017) 12,797 (2016) 12,788 (2015) 12,696 (2014) 11,703 (2013)

The highest share who say they expect house prices to rise in the next 12 months where they live is in Luxembourg (88%); just 1% of Luxembourg residents expect prices to fall. Fewer Italians expect house prices to rise (42%); 14% of Italians expect house prices in the 12 months from June 2018, when the survey was carried out, to fall.

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 13 The question

13% 9% 27% 25% 16% 15% 14% 13% 11% 11% 8% 8% 5% 4 3 9% 14% 8% 20% 13% 17% 7% 19% 13% 11% 17% 17% 16% 11% 8% 8% 13% 12% 13% 9% 9% 24% 4 3 5% 12% 8% 11% 10% 12% 9% 5% 10% 8% 4% 12% 8% 5% 18% 16% 12% 8% 18% 13% 11% 7% 19% 21% 14% 24% 39% 18% 26% 17% 40% 29% 39% 41% 17% 34% 35% 44% 37% 45% 35% 30% 27% 14% 19% 21% 17% 19% 19% 18% 30% 17% 21% 21% 23% 19% 20%

USA Australia Romania Luxembourg Turkey Netherlands Poland Belgium United Kingdom Spain Czech Republic France Italy Austria Germany European consumer

Sample size: 4,714

Under 30 Between 30 and 35 Over 35 I don’t want to buy a property I don’t expect to be able to buy I don’t know

At what age do you expect to buy your first property?

Luxembourg, amongst countries expecting to buy younger

Luxembourg respondents expect to buy younger than the European average consumer. On average, people in Europe who have not yet purchased believe they will be able to do so by the age of 34. This is a bit earlier for Luxembourg residents, who expect being able to buy at an average age of 31. Germany (45%) and Italy (44%) have the highest shares who say they don’t ever expect to be able to buy a property.

Asked to everyone who indicated they had not yet bought a first property.

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 14 The question

15% 8% 22% 19% 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 8% 7% 6% 6% 13% 46% 42% 19% 25% 17% 44% 35% 37% 47% 22% 31% 37% 25% 30% 26% 34% 27% 37% 50% 46% 56% 33% 42% 35% 31% 53% 48% 38% 51% 53% 50% 41% 12% 14% 10% 11% 10% 8% 10% 16% 11% 14% 10% 17% 16% 11% 18% 12%

USA Australia Romania Poland Czech Republic Turkey Germany Italy Spain France Austria United Kingdom Belgium Luxembourg Netherlands European consumer

Sample size: 14,725

I currently do this I would consider this I would not consider this I have no opinion

Sometimes more than two generations live in one home. Is this something you do, or would consider?

Asked to everyone.

Fifty-eight percent in Europe say the main benefit of having several generations live together under one roof is saving

• money. Other reasons cited are so grandparents can help with

the children (51%); children can look after ageing parents (48%); families can stay close together (47%); the family home is more likely to stay within the family (29%); or around making better use of time (22%).

Extended families in

• ne home? Not really for

Luxembourg residents

Saving money and boosting support

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 15 The question

6% 4 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5 4 7% 37% 35% 34% 46% 41% 39% 40% 34% 41% 43% 36% 40% 36% 35% 37% 39% 30% 32% 32% 27% 25% 33% 28% 30% 28% 30% 33% 28% 32% 37% 35% 30% 11% 15% 11% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 15% 9% 10% 7% 9% 5 5 5 4 3 5 7% 3 4 3 4 7% 5 5 3 8% 5 11% 7% 6% 8% 4 8% 4 8% 7% 3 4 3 6% 5 5 11% 5 3 4 5 6% 6% 6% 5

USA Australia Czech Republic Poland United Kingdom Italy France Netherlands Spain Turkey Germany Romania Belgium Austria Luxembourg European consumer

Sample size: 8,634

None Up to a 1/4 Between a 1/4 and 1/2 Between 1/2, but less than 3/4 Between 3/4 and all I really don’t know I don’t want to disclose

How much of your monthly take-home pay do you spend on your mortgage/rent each month? If unsure, a guess is OK.

Asked only to those who currently pay a mortgage or rent.

Almost 2 in 5 spend up to ½ of income in housing in Luxembourg

On average, 39% in Europe spend up to a quarter of their monthly take-home pay on their mortgage or rent, which is the same level as in Luxembourg. Our full data set reveals that even if housing is very expensive in Luxembourg, when this is assessed considering the declared income, the country is in the most beneficial outcome. Luxembourg is amongst the countries with the highest declared net income and declared a lower fraction of housing expenses.

ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 16 The question

How easy or difficult do you find it to pay your mortgage or rent each month?

Asked only to those who currently pay a mortgage or rent. Answer choices were “very difficult”, “difficult”, “neither easy nor difficult”, “easy” or “very easy”.

Just one in ten find paying rent or a mortgage “difficult” in Luxembourg

Even though housing prices is high in Luxembourg, only 12% in Luxembourg considered paying mortgage or rent each month is difficult. Every year since 2014, we have asked people who pay a mortgage or rent each month how easy or difficult they find this task. They are allowed to interpret this question how they wish.

20% 27% 46% 36% 34% 29% 28% 24% 21% 19% 18% 18% 17% 12% 12% 25% 32% 37% 35% 47% 48% 42% 41% 47% 45% 43% 40% 37% 48% 36% 47% 41% 48% 36% 20% 17% 18% 30% 31% 29% 34% 38% 42% 45% 35% 52% 41% 34%

USA Australia Turkey Italy Romania Poland Austria France Spain Belgium Germany United Kingdom Czech Republic Netherlands Luxembourg European consumer

Sample size: 7,505

Difficult Neither Easy

Resident average income

Luxembourg Belgium Germany France