Introduction Frédéric Kieffer Head of Retail Banking ING Luxembourg ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 1
Le logement fait la une des journaux ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 2
Enquête Statec sur les principales préoccupations des électeurs en 2013 par rapport à 2018 Thèmes importants des élections 2013 2018 35% Rentes et pensions 17% 46% Chômage / Emploi 9% 23% Education 27% 2% Mobilité 26% 15% Marché du logement 44% ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 3
Evolution de la population au Grand-Duché de Luxembourg 1 Source : United Nations - Population Division ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 4
Evolution de la structure familiale La taille moyenne des familles par logement diminue (nombre des divorces en augmentation, population vieillissante, etc.) Nombre de personnes par foyer 3,5 3,13 3 2,83 2,66 2,51 Estimation 2,41 2,5 2,2 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1970 1981 1991 2001 2011 2030 Même si la taille de population restait inchangée, le besoin en logements augmenterait. ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 5
L’offre de logement est insuffisante face à la demande Prévision de la demande de logements Production annuelle de nouveaux logements Prévisions pour 2010-2030 : • Environ 4 000 nouveaux logements par an + • Environ 2 280 logements par an (reconversion) • Total estimé de 6 300 nouveaux logements par an La production de logements ne couvre pas la demande ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 6
About the ING International Survey The ING International Survey promotes a better understanding of how people around the globe spend, save, invest and feel about money. It is conducted several times a year, with reports hosted at www.ezonomics.com/iis . This online survey was carried out by Ipsos between 6 and 18 June 2018. Sampling reflects gender ratios and age distribution, selecting from pools of possible respondents furnished by panel providers in each country. European consumer figures are an average, weighted to take country population into account. Austria 15 Belgium Czech Republic countries are compared France Germany in this report. Italy 1,000 Luxembourg Netherlands about 1,000 respondents were surveyed in Poland Romania each, apart from Luxembourg, with 500. Spain 14,725 Turkey United Kingdom is the total sample size USA Australia of this report. ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 7
In Luxembourg, people love to own their house/appartement Owners Country Owners with mortgage In Europe a majority of people own 69% without a mortgage, but this is not OWN Luxembourg 40% the case of Luxembourg where 40% own with a mortgage, and Belgium 60% 33% only 29% own without a mortgage. France 54% 28% Germany 36% 19% Luxembourg nationality Country Renters residents: 9% RENT 17% Luxembourg Foreign residents 27% Belgium 28% France 38% Germany 59% ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 8
The question In general, do you think that your country is on the right track or More say Luxembourg is on the wrong track when it comes to housing? the wrong track with housing Asked to everyone. In 2017, we asked people in Europe, the USA and Australia if their European consumer 2017 45% 26% 29% 2018 53% 22% 25% country is on the right track on housing. Large shares (45% on Spain 2017 18% average in Europe) felt their countries were on the wrong road. 58% 25% 2018 68% 16% 17% Germany 2017 This year, once again many Europeans reply “ I don’t know” (22%). 50% 27% 23% 2018 59% 23% 18% This was a lower share than in 2017 (26%) – but this year more Luxembourg 2017 49% 30% 22% 2018 57% 24% 19% than half (53%) say their country is on the wrong track. Czech Republic 2017 40% 35% 25% 2018 51% 29% 20% More than half of Luxembourg residents believe that the country is France 2017 40% 37% 23% 2018 on the wrong track when it comes to housing. Although the 46% 32% 22% United Kingdom 2017 50% 27% 24% percentage has increased compared to last year, the total 2018 56% 21% 23% Turkey 2017 52% 11% 37% percentage remains similar to the European level at 57%. 2018 69% 8 23% Belgium 2017 36% 35% 29% 2018 40% 36% 24% Austria 2017 46% 27% 27% 2018 45% 27% 28% Romania 2017 35% 29% 35% 2018 49% 21% 29% Netherlands 2017 27% 29% 44% 2018 43% 24% 33% Italy 2017 38% 29% 32% 2018 39% 25% 35% Poland 2017 30% 26% 43% 2018 35% 25% 39% Australia 2017 50% 26% 25% 2018 25% 46% 29% USA 2017 36% 30% 34% 2018 27% 37% 36% I don't know Wrong track Right track I don't know Right track Wrong track Sample size: 14,725 (2018), 14,811 (2017) ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 9
The question Housing = “expensive” What characteristics do you think relate to housing in your country? Please select as many as you like. Responses from Europe only. Those who neither rent nor own their home are excluded from the sample. On average 57% in Europe say housing in their country is expensive. The largest share who say this is in Luxembourg 82% Expensive (82%) and the lowest in Italy (38%). 80% In Luxembourg , both renters and buyers see housing as 38% High quality “expensive” (80% and 82%, respectively). However, owners and 22% renters do not agree on the second characteristic: where renters 34% see an unfair market, owners identify “high quality” as the second Investment opportunity 23% most important characteristic of the Luxembourg housing market. 24% Unfair Naturally, home owners are more likely to say housing is an 31% “investment opportunity” (34%) than renters (23%). 12% Crowded 8% Own Rent 11% Over-regulated 7% 9% Always changing 12% 7% Beneficial 7% 4% Affordable 2% 3% Fair 5% Sample size: 513 ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 10
The question To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following It might be harder now statements? than ever to buy a home Chart shows shares who “agree” or “strongly agree”. Possible answers include “neither agree nor disagree”, “disagree”, “strongly disagree” or “don’t know”. In Luxembourg a majority of respondents, agree that it’s European… 65% 72% increasingly difficult to buy a home for newcomers in today’s housing market. Indeed, Luxembour g is the top country in 49% Germany Europe where respondents agree that the real estate market is 58% 50% Poland becoming harder for newcomers. 57% 57% France In 13 of 15 countries surveyed, more than half feel, furthermore, 64% 59% Austria that the difficulty of getting on the so-called housing ladder has 66% 64% Czech Republic increased since 2015. 78% 67% Italy 72% 68% Spain 80% 71% Netherlands 74% 73% Belgium 78% 76% Romania 82% United… 78% 84% 84% Turkey 86% 86% Luxembourg 91% 75% Australia 78% 60% USA 64% Since 2015, it has become harder for newcomers to the housing market to buy a house For newcomers to the housing market, it is increasingly difficult to buy a house Sample size: 14,725 ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 11
The question Do you think house prices will rise or fall over the next twelve House prices tipped to keep months where you live? rising in the next 12 months European consumer totals only. Answer choices were “rise sharply”, “rise slightly”, “stay the same”, “fall slightly”, “fall sharply”, or “don’t know”. 88% Luxembourg 86% The ING International Survey has asked Europeans about future house prices for six consecutive years. Higher shares in 2018 78% (63% in Europe, and 88% in Luxembourg ) expect the cost of 76% homes to increase over the next 12 months. 72% 70% Smaller shares than ever (7% in Europe) expect house prices to Europe 63% fall in the next 12 months, whether a little or a lot. In 59% Luxembourg, the trend is even stronger, with the lowest share 56% 56% 53% ever of respondents believing that prices will remain the same. 47% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 24% Europe Is Europe positive on prices? Not everywhere 22% 22% 18% 17% 20% The highest share who say they expect house prices to rise in 14% 11% 11% the next 12 months where they live is in Luxembourg (88%); 10% 8% Luxembourg 7% 7% 7% just 1% of Luxembourg residents expect prices to fall. Fewer 8% 7% 7% 7% Europe 7% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% Italians expect house prices to rise (42%); 14% of Italians Luxembourg 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Luxembourg expect house prices in the 12 months from June 2018, when 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 the survey was carried out, to fall. Rise Stay the same Fall I don't know Rise - Luxembourg Stay the same - Luxembourg Fall- Luxembourg I don't know- Luxembourg Sample size: 12,704 (2018) 12,796 (2017) 12,797 (2016) 12,788 (2015) 12,696 (2014) 11,703 (2013) ING International Survey Homes and Mortgages 2018 12
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