Intro slides from Emily
C G A’s C O V I D - 1 9 Methodology and P U L S E S U RV E Y S sample… Methodology and sample… Results collected between Consumer survey ran bi-weekly 04.07.20 – 16.08.20 Results collected: w/c 13th July, 27th July No. of current and 10th August Overall venues: responses: 750 65,000 2,000 consumers [2]
THE MARKET UPON RE-OPENING [3]
CGA Market Recovery Monitor Across the total market the majority of pubs have been able to re-open, with bars and restaurants lagging behind Total re-openings across all licenced outlets Data: 19.08.20 Bars Pubs Restaurants Pubs 88% of sites 68% of sites 68% of sites open open open 5,559 34,450 16,988 Total sites Total sites Total sites CGA Market Recovery Monitor
CGA’s Coffer Peach Business Tracker The positive effect of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme is continuing, with restaurants and pub restaurants both experiencing a positive week seeing like-for- like sales increase vs last year Week 1 (w/c 3 rd August) Week 2 (w/c 10th August) 30% 18% Total week on week sales Total week on week sales growth growth Managed restaurants: Managed restaurants: +7% LFL sales growth vs +4% LFL sales growth vs same week in 2019 same week in 2019 [5] www.cga.co.uk
CGA’s Coffer Peach Business Tracker Total sales continues to grow relative to last year, but overall performance is still below 2019 Coffer Peach Business Tracker – weekly total YoY sales growth vs. last year 0% 06-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 03-Aug 10-Aug -14% -15% -20% -21% -40% -51% -59% -60% -68% -80% All outlets Wet led pubs Restaurants [6] www.cga.co.uk
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 The GB on trade is at a point where over half of its customers have now returned, and this figure has increased by +10pp since our last survey two weeks ago Have you visited a pub, bar, restaurant, café or other similar venue since restrictions were lifted? 55% 45% Two weeks ago 35% of GB consumers (who typically ate out once every 6 months pre-COVID-19) Four weeks ago (Of English consumers) CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [7] Sample size: Pulse 3: 742, Pulse 2: 747
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 The increase in consumers returning to the out-of-home market in England is gradually increasing, with a large latent population still not having returned Proportion of consumers in England who have been out since the 4 th of July: 55% 53% 48% 45% 35% 12% First weekend First ten days Third week Fourth week Fifth week Sixth week (to Tuesday) CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [8] Sample size: Pulse 3: 640, Pulse 2: 646, Pulse 1: 500
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 Over a half of 35-54 year olds have now returned to the market at least once, a position that younger consumers were in after just 10 days of re-opening Proportion of consumers in who have been out since the 4 th of July, split by age group: 48% 33% 55+yrs 23% 51% 46% 35 – 54yrs 31% 67% 18 – 34yrs 58% 51% First 10 days (England only) First 4 weeks First 6 weeks (to Tuesday) CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [9] Sample size: Pulse 3: 640, Pulse 2: 646, Pulse 1: 500
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 The trade has started to attract varying segments of consumers as it remains open, now attracting segments who were unlikely to visit in the first days of opening % of MATCH segments who have been out since restrictions have been lifted Index vs CGA’s first pulse survey (those who went out in the first 10 days of opening) +23pp +36pp +19pp +20pp +22pp +36pp +3pp +29pp +15pp +7pp 74% 70% 65% 57% 56% 51% 49% 44% 43% 35% Business Class Carefree Dolce Comfortable Confident Cost Conscious Family Pit Mainstream Sparkling Steadfast Trending Seekers Vitas Sceptics Conformists Champions Stoppers Minded Socialisers Sippers Tastemakers CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [10] Sample size: Pulse 3: 405, Pulse 1: 173
We Hear You Consumers continue to enter the market for the first time 2 in 5 (37%) Customers who took the We Hear You survey between 28 th July & 16th August were first time visitors to the sector since re- opening [11]
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 Over a quarter of the total GB population told us they had already used the Eat Out to Help Out scheme by the 11 th of August 27% Of the GB population had used the Eat Out To Help Out Scheme within the first five days of it being available (up to Tuesday 11 th August) CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [12] Sample size: 640
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 The Eat Out To Help Out scheme has also been successful in tempting consumers who had previously not visited the market back out 39% Of consumers who took advantage of the scheme were first-time visitors to the on premise since it re-opened While 26% of all consumers who are yet to eat or drink out said they would be likely to make use of the scheme before it ends CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [13] Sample size: 742
CGA’s Trading Index Flash Reports With food sales in particular benefitting from the Eat Out to Help Out scheme Daily EPoS food sales data for Monday the 10 th , Tuesday 11 th and Wednesday 13 th of August 2020 Vs equivalent 2019 day (Mon 12 th , Tuesday 13 th , Wednesday 14 th August 2019) Mon 10 th Aug Weds 13 th Aug Tues 11th Aug 62% 78% 64% YOY% change in food YOY% change in food YOY% change in food sales sales sales CGA Trading Index Flash Report 10 th , 11 th and 12 th August 2020 [14] [14]
CGA’s Drinks Recovery Tracker However, EOTHO has also had a positive impact on all drinks sectors, with soft drinks seeing the biggest benefit Mon/Tue/Wed Sales Performance Pre & Post Introduction of EOTHO (Value RoS vs. LY) 92% 66% Introduction of EOTHO Scheme 27% 26% 12% 6% -3% -4% -5% -7% -11% -14% -18% -20% -22% -23% -25% -26% -26% -30% -31% -31% -40% -40% w/c 20th July w/c 27th July w/c 3rd August w/c 10th August Total Drinks Beer Cider Spirits Wine Soft Drinks CGA Drinks Recovery Tracker data [15]
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 For many, the scheme isn’t cannibalising weekend visits to the trade, with 3 in 4 consumers just as likely, or more likely, to make weekend trips How likely are you to visit a pub, bar, restaurant or other similar venue at the weekend if you already went out at the start of the week using the “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme? 55% 25% 20% More likely than usual Less likely than usual As likely than usual CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [16] [16] Sample size: 742
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 Along with driving footfall, the scheme is also building confidence levels amongst those first-time visitors 39% 60% Same level of confidence Of consumers who ate out for the first time since 2% restrictions were lifted, using the EOTHO scheme, said the experience made them feel more confident Less confident about going out CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [17] Sample size: 128
We Hear You Encouraging many customers to visit new restaurants they wouldn’t usual ally choose se 70% Of consumers visiting venues Mon – Weds in 84% August, said they visited because of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme Of consumers said the Eat Out to Help Out scheme would encourage them to visit a new restaurant [18]
We Hear You Nervous usne ness ahead d of visit is declining ng, , with more custom tomers now w relaxed d than uneasy sy befo fore re eating ng and drinki nking out How nervous did you feel before your visit today? Third two weeks First two weeks' visits Second two weeks' visits 48% 46% 32% 32% 26% 21% 20% 18% 17% 14% 9% 2% 8% 5% 1% Very nervous Slightly nervous Neither nervous nor relaxed Slightly relaxed Very relaxed [19]
We Hear You Perhap aps as a result t of a m more re confi nfide dent nt consum umer, , we we are starting ting to see more customers visit sit ve venue ues that are new to them Proportion of visitors visiting the venue “for the first time” 26% 15% 52% Weeks 1 and 2 Weeks 3 and 4 Weeks 5 and 6 [20]
We Hear You The majori rity ty of cons nsum umers wo would d revisit based on their experi rience nces, , emphasising the fact that precautions aren’t a deterrent 82% Of visitors agree their overall experience reassured them enough to venues again [21]
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 But consumer confidence generally remains fragile, for both those who have visited the market and those who are yet to do so % of consumers who agree or strongly agree 81% 80% 75% Those who haven’t 69% 68% 67% been out Those who have been out “I am worried about by local area “I am worried about a second peak “I am concerned about the impact going back into lockdown” in COVID- 19 infections” of COVID-19 on the health of myself and my family” CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [22] Sample size: GB: 742, Been out: 405, Not been out: 337
BALANCING SAFETY & EXPERIENCE [23]
CGA’s Pulse Survey 14.08.20 The top three drivers to a venue have remained constant over the past six weeks, and with hygiene featuring as the most important, venues can’t become complacent Current Top considerations when choosing Rank position in Rank position in rank % which venue to visit post-lockdown Pulse 2 Pulse 1 position 41% 1 st 1 st 1 st Hygiene/ cleanliness levels 38% 2 nd 2 nd 2 nd The quality of food available 34% 3 rd 3 rd 3 rd How convenient it is to visit CGA Pulse Survey 14.08.20 [24] Sample size: Pulse 3: 355, Pulse 2: 304, Pulse 1: 173
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