Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience Ren´ e Milzarek Chair for Network Architectures and Services Department for Computer Science Technische Universit¨ at M¨ unchen June 14, 2013 Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 1
Outline Motivation 1 The Smart Grid 2 3 Risk Analysis and Management The Prospect Theory 4 The Social Amplification of Risk 5 6 Social Amplification in the Internet Enviroment Conclusion 7 Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 2
Motivation What is critical infrastructure? “Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.” 1 Think about some examples... Characteristics of critical infrastructure: Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions 1R. L. Church, M. P . Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3
Motivation What is critical infrastructure? “Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.” 1 Think about some examples... Characteristics of critical infrastructure: Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions 1R. L. Church, M. P . Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3
Motivation What is critical infrastructure? “Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.” 1 Think about some examples... Power grid, water supply, mobile communications, traffic network Characteristics of critical infrastructure: Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions 1R. L. Church, M. P . Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3
Motivation What is critical infrastructure? “Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.” 1 Think about some examples... Power grid, water supply, mobile communications, traffic network Characteristics of critical infrastructure: Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions 1R. L. Church, M. P . Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3
Motivation How does social behavior influence infrastructures? Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology What we basically do is... ...risk estimation and minimization. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4
Motivation How does social behavior influence infrastructures? Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology What we basically do is... ...risk estimation and minimization. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4
Motivation How does social behavior influence infrastructures? Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology What we basically do is... ...risk estimation and minimization. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4
The Smart Grid Figure : Basic structure of a smart grid distribution network. 2 2http://energyinformative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/smart-grid.jpg Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 5
Risk Analysis and Management How would you define risk? The risk management process: Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6
Risk Analysis and Management How would you define risk? “[...] a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event.” risk = probability × magnitude The risk management process: Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6
Risk Analysis and Management How would you define risk? “[...] a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event.” risk = probability × magnitude The risk management process: Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6
Risk Analysis and Management Methods of a risk assessment process: Quantitive assessments Qualitative assessments Semi-quantitative assessments Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 7
The Prospect Theory Which option would you chose? Which is the economically best option? Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8
The Prospect Theory Which option would you chose? Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing Table : A simple decision problem Which is the economically best option? Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8
The Prospect Theory Which option would you chose? Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing Table : A simple decision problem Which is the economically best option? Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8
The Prospect Theory Which option would you chose? Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing Table : A simple decision problem Which is the economically best option? The expected value of option A is 0 . 33 × 5500 + 0 . 66 × 5000 + 0 . 01 × 0 = 5115 . Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8
The Prospect Theory The psychological component... ...in risk estimation and decision making. Certainty effect Reflection effect Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 9
The Social Amplification of Risk Shortcomings of the technical risk analysis Inability to model individual and public perceiption of risk Neglects the role of social amplification and attenuation processes Definition of amplification in Communications Theory “[...] the process of itensifying or attenuating signals during the transmission of information from an information source, to intermediate transmitters, and finally to a receiver.” Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 10
The Social Amplification of Risk Shortcomings of the technical risk analysis Inability to model individual and public perceiption of risk Neglects the role of social amplification and attenuation processes Definition of amplification in Communications Theory “[...] the process of itensifying or attenuating signals during the transmission of information from an information source, to intermediate transmitters, and finally to a receiver.” Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 10
The Social Amplification of Risk Figure : Detailed conceptual framework of social amplification of risk. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 11
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