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Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience

Ren´ e Milzarek

Chair for Network Architectures and Services Department for Computer Science Technische Universit¨ at M¨ unchen

June 14, 2013

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 1

Outline

1

Motivation

2

The Smart Grid

3

Risk Analysis and Management

4

The Prospect Theory

5

The Social Amplification of Risk

6

Social Amplification in the Internet Enviroment

7

Conclusion

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 2

Motivation

What is critical infrastructure?

“Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.”1

Think about some examples... Characteristics of critical infrastructure:

Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions

• 1R. L. Church, M. P

. Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3

Motivation

What is critical infrastructure?

“Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.”1

Think about some examples... Characteristics of critical infrastructure:

Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions

• 1R. L. Church, M. P

. Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3

Motivation

What is critical infrastructure?

“Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.”1

Think about some examples...

Power grid, water supply, mobile communications, traffic network

Characteristics of critical infrastructure:

Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions

• 1R. L. Church, M. P

. Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3

Motivation

What is critical infrastructure?

“Critical infrastructure are those elements of infrastructure that, if lost, could pose a significant threat to needed supplies [...], services [...], and communication or a significant loss of service coverage or efficiency.”1

Think about some examples...

Power grid, water supply, mobile communications, traffic network

Characteristics of critical infrastructure:

Young and fast evolving technologies Ubiquitous and often taken for granted Intense social interactions

• 1R. L. Church, M. P

. Scaparra, and R. S. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure: The median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(3):491–502, 2004. Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 3

Motivation

How does social behavior influence infrastructures?

Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology

What we basically do is...

...risk estimation and minimization.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4

Motivation

How does social behavior influence infrastructures?

Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology

What we basically do is...

...risk estimation and minimization.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4

Motivation

How does social behavior influence infrastructures?

Think about some examples or situations, where social behaviour could influence infrastructure resilience. Traffic jam notice on the radio Natural disaster Support and acceptance of a technology

What we basically do is...

...risk estimation and minimization.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 4

The Smart Grid

Figure : Basic structure of a smart grid distribution network.2

2http://energyinformative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/smart-grid.jpg Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 5

Risk Analysis and Management

How would you define risk? The risk management process:

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6

Risk Analysis and Management

How would you define risk?

“[...] a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event.” risk = probability × magnitude

The risk management process:

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6

Risk Analysis and Management

How would you define risk?

“[...] a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event.” risk = probability × magnitude

The risk management process:

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 6

Risk Analysis and Management

Methods of a risk assessment process:

Quantitive assessments Qualitative assessments Semi-quantitative assessments

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 7

The Prospect Theory

Which option would you chose? Which is the economically best option?

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8

The Prospect Theory

Which option would you chose?

Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing

Table : A simple decision problem

Which is the economically best option?

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8

The Prospect Theory

Which option would you chose?

Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing

Table : A simple decision problem

Which is the economically best option?

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8

The Prospect Theory

Which option would you chose?

Option A Option B 33% chance to win 5500 66% chance to win 5000 Win 5000 for sure 1% chance to win nothing

Table : A simple decision problem

Which is the economically best option?

The expected value of option A is 0.33 × 5500 + 0.66 × 5000 + 0.01 × 0 = 5115.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 8

The Prospect Theory

The psychological component...

...in risk estimation and decision making.

Certainty effect Reflection effect

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 9

The Social Amplification of Risk

Shortcomings of the technical risk analysis

Inability to model individual and public perceiption of risk Neglects the role of social amplification and attenuation processes

Definition of amplification in Communications Theory

“[...] the process of itensifying or attenuating signals during the transmission of information from an information source, to intermediate transmitters, and finally to a receiver.”

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 10

The Social Amplification of Risk

Shortcomings of the technical risk analysis

Inability to model individual and public perceiption of risk Neglects the role of social amplification and attenuation processes

Definition of amplification in Communications Theory

“[...] the process of itensifying or attenuating signals during the transmission of information from an information source, to intermediate transmitters, and finally to a receiver.”

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 10

The Social Amplification of Risk

Figure : Detailed conceptual framework of social amplification of risk.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 11

The Social Amplification of Risk

Figure : Detailed conceptual framework of social amplification of risk.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 12

Social Amplification in the Internet

How could you use the Internet to measure social amplification? Use case: Tunnel construction project in South Korea

Started in 1992 to build a tunnel for a high-speed railway. Interupted several time due to the protest of enviromentalists. Several hunger strikes lead to a total delay of one year!

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 13

Social Amplification in the Internet

How could you use the Internet to measure social amplification?

Facebook posts, comments or likes Tweets or Retweets Blog articles or posts Visits

Use case: Tunnel construction project in South Korea

Started in 1992 to build a tunnel for a high-speed railway. Interupted several time due to the protest of enviromentalists. Several hunger strikes lead to a total delay of one year!

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 13

Social Amplification in the Internet

How could you use the Internet to measure social amplification?

Facebook posts, comments or likes Tweets or Retweets Blog articles or posts Visits

Use case: Tunnel construction project in South Korea

Started in 1992 to build a tunnel for a high-speed railway. Interupted several time due to the protest of enviromentalists. Several hunger strikes lead to a total delay of one year!

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 13

Social Amplification in the Internet

Figure : Amplification of public attention.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 14

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Conclusion

Conclusion that can be drawn...

Classic Risk analysis is not able to explain individual and social perception of risk Minor risks or risk events often produce extraordinary public concern and social and economic impacts The Framework of Social Amplification of Risk provides a methodolgy to explain those effects The Internet, especially social networks serve as amplification channel. But: There is need for further identicators, which help to recognize and monitor the social amplification process. Furthermore there are no counter measures provided.

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 15

Questions and Answers

Thank you for your attention!

Ren´ e Milzarek: Internet Science 2 Impact of social behavior for critical infrastructure resilience 16