SLIDE 1
1
2
Internet Evolution and IPv6 Paul Wilson APNIC 1 Where are IPv6 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Internet Evolution and IPv6 Paul Wilson APNIC 1 Where are IPv6 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Internet Evolution and IPv6 Paul Wilson APNIC 1 Where are IPv6 addresses today? 2 IPv6 Global allocations by RIR APNIC 337 21% RIPENCC 737 45% ARIN 438 LACNIC AFRINIC 27% 87 37 5% 2% Unit: IPv6 pref i x 3 IPv6
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
3
IPv6 – Global allocations by RIR
AFRINIC 37 2% RIPENCC 737 45% ARIN 438 27% APNIC 337 21% LACNIC 87 5%
Unit: IPv6 pref i x
SLIDE 4
4
IT 39 Other 581 CA 39 CH 37 SE 33 TW 28 AT 27 KR 45 FR 45 NL 59 US 391 DE 118 JP 99 GB 95
IPv6 – Global allocations by CC
Unit: IPv6 pref i x
SLIDE 5
5
IPv6 – Global allocations by CC
Unit: 3 2 pref i x
TW 2309 4% PL 2088 4% Other 2936 5% IT 4131 7% KR 5191 9% EU 6157 11% DE 9580 17% FR 8233 15% AU 8206 15% JP 7275 13%
SLIDE 6
6
IPv6 – Global allocation growth
Unit: IPv6 pref i x
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 apnic arin lacnic ripencc afrinic
SLIDE 7
7
Where is IPv6 being used today?
SLIDE 8
8
IPv6 – routed prefixes
http://bgp.potaroo.net/v6 /as6 4 4 7
SLIDE 9
9
IPv4 – routed prefixes
http://bgp.potaroo.net/as2 .0 /bgp-active.htm l
SLIDE 10
10
IPv6 – routed ASNs
http://bgp.potaroo.net/v6 /as6 4 4 7
SLIDE 11
11
IPv4 – routed ASNs
http://bgp.potaroo.net/as1 2 2 1 /bgp-active.htm l
SLIDE 12
12
Those graphs again…
IPv6 IPv6 ASN IPv4 ASN IPv4
SLIDE 13
13
The InterNAT today
SLIDE 14
14
The InterNAT Today
- Everything now engineered for NAT
– Client-initiated transactions – Application-layer identities – Server agents for multi-party rendezvous – Multi-party shared NAT state
- Who bears the cost?
– End users buy the NATs – Applications developers do the hard work – ISP costs are externalised
- Seems to work!
SLIDE 15
15
Where is the ISP Industry?
- Telco consolidation…
– Intense competition in the ISP industry has finished – The focus has shifted away from the ISP and away carriage services and towards to content services
- Commoditization…
– Mass market access deployment has marginal rates of return on capital – ISP products remain undifferentiated – triple play, NGN and IMS based products have so far failed to achieve visible takeup
- Stasis…
– Low margins and poor capital return have created a sluggish industry that is unresponsive to change – Resistive to efforts to evolve the IP level service model
SLIDE 16
16
So what’s the problem?
SLIDE 17
17
The problem is reality
- Technical
– IPv6 is stable and well tested – But many technical issues are still being debated…
- “The perfect is the enemy of the good”
– Industry needs confidence and certainty
- Business
– NAT has worked too well – Existing industry based on externalizing the costs for address scarcity, and insecurity – Lack of investor interest in more infrastructure investment
- Short term interests vs long term imperatives
– IPv6 promotion - too much too early?
- IPv6 may be seen as “tired” and not “wired”
SLIDE 18
18
The result…
- Short term business pressures support the
case for further deferral of IPv6 infrastructure investment
- There is insufficient linkage between the
added cost, complexity and fragility of NAT- based applications and the costs of infrastructure deployment of IPv6
- An evolutionary adoption seems unlikely in
today’s environment
– …or in the foreseeable future
SLIDE 19
19
The IPv4 revolution
- The 1990’s – a new world of…
– Cheaper switching technologies – Cheaper bandwidth – Lower operational costs – The PC revolution, funded by users
- The Internet boom
– The dumb (and cheap) network – Technical and business innovation at the ends – Many rewards for new services and innovation
SLIDE 20
20
An IPv6 revolution…
- The 2000’s – a new world of…
– Commodity Internet provision, lean and mean – Massive reduction in cost of consumer electronics – A network-ready society
- The IPv6 boom?
– “Internet for Everything” – Serving the communications requirements of a device- dense world – Device population some 2–3 orders of magnitude larger than today’s Internet – Service costs must be cheaper by 2-3 orders of magnitude – per packet
SLIDE 21
21
IPv6 – From PC to iPOD to iPOT
- A world of billions of chattering devices
- Or even trillions…
SLIDE 22
22
In conclusion…
SLIDE 23
23
The IPv6 Challenge
- There are still too few compelling feature or
revenue levers in IPv6 to drive new investments in existing service platforms
- But the silicon industry has made the shift from
value to volume years ago
- The Internet industry might follow this lead
– From value to volume in IP(v6) packets – Reducing packet transmission costs by orders of magnitude – To an IPv6 Internet embracing a world of trillions of devices – To a true utility model of service provision
SLIDE 24
24