International Trade and Investment Click to edit Master title style - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Trade and Investment Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level Agbiz Media Day • Fourth level • Fifth level 25 November 2016 11/25/2016 1

Outline Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Half year 2016 Agricultural Export Performance • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Rebates: South Africa’s poultry imports from USA • Fifth level • The SACU(M) Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) • SACU-MERCOSUR Agreement • Outlook for 2017 11/25/2016 2

Click to edit Master title style Agricult ltural l Trade Performance • Click to edit Master text styles Black Sea • Second level Americas • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Middle East Asia EU (28) Africa - 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 Exports (US$ billion) 2016 2015 11/25/2016 3

Click to edit Master title style Agricult ltural l Trade Performance -20% • Click to edit Master text styles Black Sea • Second level +11% Americas • Third level • Fourth level +8% • Fifth level Middle East -2% Asia EU (28) +3% -12% Africa - 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 Exports (US$ billion) 2016 2015 11/25/2016 4

Tariffs, rebates and tr trade remedies: South Africa’s bone -in in poult ltry ry im imports fr from th the USA Click to edit Master title style 8 000 R12,00 • Click to edit Master text styles 6 906 7 000 • Second level R10,00 • Third level 6 000 • Fourth level R8,00 Price (Rand/Kg) 5 000 • Fifth level volume (Tons) 4 000 R6,00 3 000 2 398 R4,00 2 299 2 000 1 467 1 238 R2,00 807 1 000 645 393 239 - R0,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Volume (Tons) Price (R/KG) 11/25/2016 5

Tariffs, rebates and tr trade remedies: South Africa’s bone -in in poult ltry ry im imports fr from th the USA Click to edit Master title style 8 000 R12,00 • Click to edit Master text styles 6 906 7 000 • Second level R10,00 • Third level 6 000 • Fourth level R8,00 Price (Rand/Kg) 5 000 • Fifth level volume (Tons) 4 000 R6,00 3 000 2 398 R4,00 2 299 2 000 1 467 1 238 R2,00 807 1 000 645 393 239 - R0,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Volume (Tons) Price (R/KG) 11/25/2016 6

Tariffs, rebates and tr trade remedies: South Africa’s bone -in poultry im imports from the Click to edit Master title style USA • Click to edit Master text styles 16 000 • Second level 14 000 • Third level 6 652 • Fourth level 12 000 • Fifth level 11 808 10 000 Volume (tons) 13 899 8 000 6 000 9 598 4 000 4 442 2 000 2 351 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Actual Exports Unfilled Quota 11/25/2016 7

Click to edit Master title style EU Economic ic Partnership ip Agreement Agreement was provisionally implemented on 1 st November 2016. • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level New market access • Third level • Wine quota increased to 110 million litres • Fourth level • 50 million litres for bulk exports • Fifth level • 77 million litres for bottled wine • Sugar cane quota increased to 150,000 tons • 50,000 tons of refined sugar • 100,000 tons of cane sugar for refining • Tariff phase down for sweet oranges from 16 th Oct – 31 st Nov over the next decade – ensuring duty free market access by 2027 • Pears of variety Nashi and apples other than cider apples subject to duty free window period – 1 st May to 31 st June 11/25/2016 8

Click to edit Master title style EU Economic ic Partnership ip Agreement • Click to edit Master text styles Poultry • Second level • Reports received suggest that there has been an outbreak of Avian • Third level Flu in Denmark, Netherlands, Poland and other parts of Europe. • Fourth level • However, this is only on wild flocks, which means an automatic ban • Fifth level cannot be implemented as yet. • Avian Flu-related Bans have already been in place against France and recently introduced against Germany • Minister Davies is expected to implement a safeguard that will translate into a 13,4% duty on poultry imports from the EU. • SAPA argues that this will not be enough to avert the danger paused on unfairly priced imports from certain EU countries. 11/25/2016 9

Click to edit Master title style Economic Partnership ip Agreement • Click to edit Master text styles Citrus • Second level • CBS emergency measures on South African citrus into the • Third level EU will remain a critical issue in 2017 • Fourth level • Fifth level • The citrus industry is incurring R1 billion per annum in compliance costs to manage CBS • Emerging issues of False Coddling Moth will add to the cost burden and it is going to adversely affect competitiveness. • Strategic diversification into Asia and the Far East will is expected as South Africa attempts to avoid high non-tariff barriers in the EU 11/25/2016 10

Click to edit Master title style SACU-MERCOSUR Agr greement • Agreement implemented on 21 st October 2016 after it was supposed to come into force on 1 st April 2016 • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level Duty import reduction on soybean oilcake • Fourth level • A 1.65% reduction in the import duty on MERCOSUR-originating soya oilcake • Fifth level imports, after falling from 6.6% to 4.95%. • The agreement will be implemented retroactively – meaning that duties paid between 1 st April and 21 st October will have to be reimbursed by SARS. Quotas • Meanwhile, quota allocations made for frozen beef cuts – Paraguay and Uruguay (250 tons, each) • Quota allocation for soybean – Paraguay (10,000 tons) and Uruguay (6,000 tons) • Quota allocation for Paraguay soybean (5,000 tons) and sunflower oil (4,000 tons) 11/25/2016 11

Click to edit Master title style Outl tlook for 2017 • Click to edit Master text styles • A recovery of domestic production will inevitably lead to a return to an increase in agricultural exports, particularly maize. • Second level • Third level • We do not expect that AGOA will be repealed by the Senate, but • Fourth level we can never be sure what the out-of-cycle review brings. • Fifth level • Continued engagement for AGOA reciprocity will continue, in one form or the other. • Exports to the EU will likely grow, supported by the new EPA market access for agricultural products. However, export growth will be threatened by emerging SPS restrictions for citrus – (FCM issues). • Brexit negotiations will likely commence, and this will add a bit of uncertainty. 11/25/2016 12

Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level Thank you • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level www.agbiz.co.za 11/25/2016 13