International perspectives on the cocoa sector: expansion or green - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International perspectives on the cocoa sector: expansion or green and double green revolutions?

Accra, 19 November 2007. IFPRI - ODI workshop

Francois Ruf CIRAD UMR Innovations

Cocoa Production per country Brazil and Malaysia. 1970-2004

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Years Thousand of tons

Malaysia Brazil

Inefficiency of estates and large farms when prices and revenues collapse

Cocoa Production per Country Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Indonesia 1975-2004

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 years

Thousand of tons

Smallholders’ high efficiency and capacity of resistance when prices and revenues collapse

Fig.1 Cocoa Production per Country Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Indonesia 1955/56-2005/06

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 years

Thousand of to C ôte d'Iv

• ire

G hana Indonesia

Since 2001, among the three major cocoa producing countries, Ghana displays the most impressive increase in production (compare to the late 1990s)

Fertilizer cons umption per cocoa farm in major cocoa producing regions

• f Soubré (C

ôte d'Ivoire) and Mans

• A

menfi (Ghana)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 years number of bags C ôte d'Ivoire G hana

This is partially explained by a beginning of ‘green revolution’: new planting material, more pesticides, fungicides and a quite recent adoption

• f fertilizers.

Production profile of a 5-ha cocoa farm in Soubré

hy p 2, w ith fertilizers and pesticides being applied before too m uch m

• rtality
• ccurs

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 years

kg

Fertilizers, in particular, have an enormous potential in cocoa farming in West-Africa

Box 1. Expansion and Intensification: estimated breakdown of the increase in cocoa production in Ghana

Producing acreage: + 15% Production: +50% Yields per hectare: + 30% Additional +60% production from other countries: + 10%

Sources: CIRAD Survey, 2007.

The Cocoa boom in Ghana in the 2000s: a combination of expanding production areas and spectacular yield increases (plus some smuggling from Côte d’Ivoire)

Table 15. Changes in cocoa yields per hectare (with the hypothesis of one pole equivalent to 0.90 acre)

(a) 2001/02 (b) 2002/03 (c) 2003/04 (d) 2004/05 (e) 2005/06 (f) 2006/07 (E+f)-(a+b) / (a+b) (in %) Eastern Region Kade

158 208 304 272 316 257 57%

Central Region, Hemang

259 266 286 298 319 307 19%

Ashanti Afigya Sekyere

181 187 223 164 192 163

• 4%

Brong Ahafo, Dormaa

484 512 562 611 692 719 42%

Wassa Amenfi West (Chichiso Pensanum)

247 265 357 280 383 404 48%

Wassa Amenfi West (Obing)

354 314 325 345 362 366 12%

Aowin Suaman (Samreboi)

430 453 474 480 482 426 3%

Nzema East (Adubrim)

554 517 528 612 697 679 20%

All Increase (n/n-1)

304

324 +7%

369 +14% 367

• 1%

424 +16% 417

• 2%

34% Sources: Ruf 2007

Regular and consistant cocoa yield increase in Ghana in the 2000s

This ‘beginning of green revolution’ in Ghana must be moderated if compared to the intensive farming systems in Indonesia but their respective input consumption levels may well be much closer in the next years.

Fertilizer cons umption per cocoa farm in major cocoa producing regions

• f the three main

cocoa producing countries

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 years number of bags Indonesia C ôte d'Ivoire G hana

Meantime, despite a more modern way of producing cocoa, despite a true green revolution, Indonesia does not escape the sustainability problem

Cocoa production profile of 19 farm s in Noling and Tam pum ea

y = -4273,9x + 69260 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 years tonnes

Hence a need to anticipate externalities of green revolutions by ‘Double Green’ approaches, namely reintroducing biological capital in the systems, especially trees.

Budget sim ulation of a 14-acre cocoa farm (5 to 13 years old in year 1)

• 200

400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

y ears Net revenues (US Cocoa

What to do with an ageing and declining cocoa farm?

Budget sim ulation of a 14-acre cocoa farm and im pact of 2.25 acres of teak

• 1 000

2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

y ears Net revenues (US Cocoa teak

As seen above, fertilizers can work … but trees can also generate windfalls

Conclusion

• 1. Once the forest and ‘forest rent’ have gone,
• modern inputs such as fertilizers become and remain extremely useful

and absolutely necessary. The extremely recent adoption of fertilizers in West-Africa is a geat achievement in itself

• but they have to be combined with organic factors, biological capital, in
• rder to progressively rebuild a ‘post-forest rent’, a key factor in

sustainability.

• 2. Smallholders are certainly brighter than estates to respond to

this challenge

• 3. Eventually, due to demographic pressure and innovations,

and if taxation is not to heavy in West-Africa, we will probably see more convergence among cocoa smallholders’ performances in the three continents in the near future