International Investment in U.S. CRE Foreign investor demand for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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International Investment in U.S. CRE Foreign investor demand for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

I NTERNATIONAL I NVESTMENT AND R EGULATIONS I NFLUENCING THE D OMESTIC R EAL E STATE M ARKET iG LOBAL 14 TH R EAL E STATE P RIVATE E QUITY S UMMIT M ARCH 2016 International Investment in U.S. CRE Foreign investor demand for U.S. commercial real


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iGLOBAL 14TH REAL ESTATE PRIVATE EQUITY SUMMIT

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT AND REGULATIONS INFLUENCING THE DOMESTIC REAL ESTATE MARKET

MARCH 2016

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International Investment in U.S. CRE

  • Pg. 2

Foreign investor demand for U.S. commercial real estate has continued to increase amid low global yields, a relatively stable U.S. economy and ongoing regulatory changes in EB-5 and FIRPTA

Key Trends in Foreign Investment in U.S. Commercial Real Estate

  • Central bank intervention and low global yields for traditional fixed income investments have driven increasing foreign

demand for U.S. commercial real estate

  • A relatively stable U.S. economy and expectations of continued dollar strength have also led to increased interest from
  • verseas investors who frequently view U.S. commercial real estate as a safe haven
  • However, continued currency appreciation could create headwinds by increasing the cost of U.S. real estate for foreign

investors and raising concerns of a future shift towards depreciation

  • Low energy costs are also a concern given the importance of energy-rich nations and sovereign wealth funds to U.S. CRE

FIRPTA Revisions could Provide a Further Boost for Foreign Demand in U.S. CRE

  • FIRPTA changes could lead to greater incremental demand, due to reduced tax drag for certain U.S CRE investment types

and certain foreign investors

  • Importantly, recent FIRPTA reforms have increased the foreign ownership limit from 5% to 10% for publicly traded REITs

and allowed foreign pension funds to be exempt from FIRPTA

EB-5 Program Granted Temporary Extension although Headwinds Remain

  • Temporary renewal of the EB-5 program through September 2016 provides an opportunity for developers, as proposed

changes included higher minimum investments and greater restrictions on Targeted Employment Areas

  • However, developers will need be mindful of potential future difficulties arising from EB-5 retrogression, which is expected

to cause a protracted, multi-year delay for Mainland Chinese applicants

  • Increased regulatory oversight may also create challenges for capital raising
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Source: HFF, Morgan Stanley, Federal Reserve, RCA

Strong Dollar and Real Estate Values

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Strong U.S. dollar has historically been correlated with increased foreign investment in U.S. CRE, due to its status as a safe haven, favorable economic growth and expectations of continued appreciation

90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trade Weighted USD Index Foreign Investments in U.S. CRE ($ bn) Foreign Investment In U.S. CRE vs. USD Strength Canada Europe Middle-East Asia Australia Latin America Trade-Weighted USD

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10 20 30 40 50 60 Intended Markets for Investment (% of Respondents) US Foreign

Source: CBRE, RCA, Morgan Stanley Research

Foreign Investors have Flooded into Major Markets

  • Pg. 4

Foreign investors frequently view U.S. CRE as a safe haven and capital has flooded into major markets and trophy assets, which were deemed to be the safest investments

Foreign Buyer Share of US CRE and Bifurcation by Market

Foreign investors have tended to favor major markets

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Foreign Investor Demand Expected to Grow Further

  • Pg. 5

Demand for U.S. CRE from foreign investors, particularly Asian-domiciled buyers, is expected to grow

Growing Allocations to Non-Listed U.S. CRE Funds Growing Allocations to U.S. CRE Direct Investments Growing Allocations to U.S. CRE Joint Ventures Current Allocations Below Targets 50 100 Asia Europe Domestic Changes to Non-Listed Funds (% of Investors) Increase No Change Decrease Does Not Invest 50 100 Asia Europe Domestic Changes to Joint Ventures (% of Investors) Increase No Change Decrease Does Not Invest 50 100 Asia Europe Domestic Changes to Direct Investments (% of Investors) Increase No Change Decrease Does Not Invest 5 10 15 Asia Europe Domestic Current and Target Allocations (%) Current Target

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Source: CBRE, RCA

Foreign Buyers also Beginning to Expand their Opportunity Set

  • Pg. 6

Foreign investors in U.S. CRE have begun to gradually shift their investment focus, as prices for apartment and office properties in gateway cities have easily surpassed previous peaks

Foreign Investments by Property Type Foreign Development Activity has also Improved… …But the Shift Away from Core Markets is Gradual 10 20 30 40 50 2007 2013 2014 2015 Foreign Investment (% of Total) Industrial Hotel US Aggregate Office Retail Apartments

Increasing appetite for industrial properties

1 2 3 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD Foreign Investment in Development Sites ($ bn) Non-Asian Asian 1 2 3 4 Asian Investment in Development Sites ($ bn)

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Source: Morgan Stanley, Federal Reserve, RCA

Energy Prices Create Headwinds for Sovereign Wealth Funds

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Sovereign wealth funds (SWF) from energy-rich nations have been among the most active foreign investors in U.S. CRE. Declining energy revenues could force SWFs to reduce investments or potentially sell holdings

Energy Prices have Collapsed Energy Rich Nations have been Major U.S. CRE Investors

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

Brent Crude Oil Prices ($ per Barrel)

5 10 15 20 25 Canada Singapore Norway China UAE Qatar Germany South Korea Australia

2015 U.S. CRE Investments ($ bn)

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Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions large than $5.0m)

FIRPTA Reform and Expected Impact

  • Recent reforms to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) will impact demand for minority, partial-interest

transactions from qualified investors.

  • New regulations exempts foreign pension funds from FIRPTA and expands permissible ownership stakes in publicly trades REITS up

to 10% from the previous cap of 5%  Pensions accounted for approximately 17% of Asian investment activity in U.S. CRE between 2011 and 2015  Japanese pensions are facing low domestic yields and have approximately $3 trillion in AuM, potentially spurring demand for U.S. CRE

  • Pg. 8

Cross-border partial-interest acquisition activity has increased significantly, with the prevalence of foreign investors acquiring partial interests rising from its 2005-2007 average of 14% to over 27%

Summary of Key FIRPTA Changes Foreign Partial-Interest Prevalence is Rising and Currently Averages 27.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Multifamily Industrial Office Retail United States

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Increased REIT ownership limit to 10% from 5% Foreign Pension Funds exempted from FIRPTA RICs granted permanent status as Qualified Investment Company

Foreign Partial-Interest Transactions (% of total)

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Source: IIUSA, Morgan Stanley, RCA, USCIS

EB-5 Key Trends

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EB-5 investment activity has increased dramatically amid strong demand for U.S. real estate from foreign investors and increased ease of access offered by the regional center and loan funding model

Strong Foreign Demand for U.S. Real Estate Regional Centers are the Preferred Vehicle Continued Demand for Chinese Investors Loan vs. Equity

100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. CRE Investment ($ bn)

Domestic Foreign

5 10 15 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EB-5 Visa Growth (‘000 of visas)

Other Countries China

200 400 600 800 1000 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Number of Regional Centers Indicative EB-5 Project Capitalization Amount (%)

Senior Loan 60 EB-5 Mezzanine Loan 30 Developer Equity 10 Project Total 100

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Source: IIUSA

EB-5 Challenges

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Visa quotas and increased regulatory oversight have created challenges for EB-5 fund raising

EB-5 Investment Activity has Increased Significantly Key Challenges Facing the EB-5 Financing Market

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EB-5 Investment ($ bn)

45% annualized growth rate

Challenges Additional Considerations

  • Developers are facing increasing competition for EB-5 capital. Importantly, completion is often not based
  • n economic returns. Instead, job creation certainty and return of principal are the primary considerations
  • Largest developers with the highest profile projects in gateway cities may be at an advantage
  • Significant delays and increased uncertainty could diminish the appeal of EB-5 investments
  • Timing considerations around release of funds (escrow bridge vs. guarantee) and return of capital
  • The SEC and other regulators have become increased their scrutiny of EB-5 capital fund raisers

Increased Competition for EB-5 Capital Retrogression Regulatory Oversight

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A Closer Look at EB-5 Retrogression

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Chinese investors currently face retrogression delays of approximately 2 years. Retrogression has the potential to lengthen EB-5 investment time frames and complicate the process for investors, regional centers and developers

Source: Bloomberg, IIUSA, USCIS

  • The Department of State first announced retrogression for

Mainland Chinese investors in August 2014

 However, the development had only minimal impact since it occurred near the end of the U.S. government’s fiscal year

  • The May 2015 Visa Bulletin confirmed retrogression for

Mainland Chinese investors, setting a cut-off date of May 2015

 The retrogression was widely expected and had been previously announced by the Department of State’s Chief

  • f Visa Control and Reporting, Charles Oppenheim, during

an April conference  Oppenheim had been warning industry participants of a likely retrogression since October 2014

  • The current November Visa Bulletin continues to show a

2 year delay with a cut-off date of November 2013

  • Additionally, the retrogression backlog is expected to

grow

 Chinese investors may rush to get in line  Industry participants only expect 6-8 months of applications to get processed each year, resulting in the backlog extending by 3-6 months each year

  • However, future legislative changes could reduce or

eliminate the backlog pressures by removing individual country caps Retrogression Summary

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EB-5 Visa Growth (# of visas)

Other Countries China

  • EB-5 Program Continues to Grow in Popularity

Mainland Chinese investors comprised 89.6% of EB-5 visas in 2015

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12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 I-829 Process Conditional Green Card Period Conditional Green Card (DS-230) Process Retrogression Delays I-526 Application Process Pre-Application I-829 Process Conditional Green Card Period Conditional Green Card (DS-230) Process I-526 Application Process Pre-Application Months

Retrogression and USCIS processing delays result in a significantly longer process

Source: EB-5 Investors, IIUSA, USCIS

Potential Impacts of Retrogression

  • Pg. 12

Chinese applicants seeking to invest regional centers are more likely to face USCIS process delays. When combined with retrogression, the EB-5 process can easily extend to 7+ years

Source: IISUA, Klasko, USCIS

Eb-5 applications typically take 3.5-5 years without delays Retrogression and delays result in a 7+ year process

Impact of Retrogression and Processing Delays

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Disclaimer

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