Internal Migration and Forced Displacement in Colombia in the - - PDF document

1 Internal Migration and Forced Displacement in Colombia in the Transition into the 21st Century: a Multiscale Approach Sulma Marcela Cuervo Ramírez1 Alisson Flávio Barbieri2 José Irineu Rangel Rigotti3 Abstract

This paper evaluates the Colombian pattern of internal migration and forced displacement and its relationship with the historical transformations in the country since the last half of the 20th century in the context of armed conflict in recent Colombian history. We used data gathered by the Demographic Censuses of 1993 and 2005 and Registry System of Displaced Population of the National Information Network on Victims of the Armed Conflict (RUPD-RNI) to establish the balance of gain and loss of population in the space. For the purpose of analysis, and in order to understand both migration and forced displacement, four different scales were considered: regional, departmental, provincial, and municipal. Results of this study show that, despite the major role of metropolitan areas in absorbing migrant populations, new areas (such as international borders with Panama, Venezuela, and Ecuador) have increasingly attracted migrants and reshaped the Colombian migration pattern. Furthermore, the study provides evidence that confirms that internal migration in the country cannot be interpreted without considering other forms of mobility. Keywords: Colombia, internal migration, forced displacement, demographic census.

Resumen

Este trabajo analiza el patrón de migración interna y de desplazamiento forzado en Colombia, como parte de las transformaciones históricas en el país desde la última mitad del siglo XX en el contexto del conflicto armado en la historia reciente. Utilizamos los datos recopilados por los Censos Demográficos de 1993 y de 2005 y el Sistema de Registro de Población Desplazada de la Red Nacional de Información sobre Víctimas del Conflicto Armado (RUPD-RNI) para establecer el saldo de ganancias y pérdidas de población como resultado delos intercambios migratorios en el espacio. Para comprender tanto la migración interna como el desplazamiento forzado, consideramos cuatro escalas diferentes de análisis espacial: regional, departamental, provincial y

• municipal. Los resultados muestran que, a pesar del importante papel de las áreas metropolitanas

en la absorción de las poblaciones migrantes, nuevas áreas -como las fronteras internacionales con Panamá, Venezuela y Ecuador-, han atraído cada vez más inmigrantes y han remodelado el patrón migratorio colombiano. El estudio proporciona evidencias que confirman que la migración interna en el país no puede ser interpretada sin considerar otras formas de movilidad. Palabras clave: Colombia, migración interna, desplazamiento forzado, censos demográficos.

1 Postdoctoral Program in Demography, Center for Planning and Regional Development, Universidade Federal de

Minas Geraisl. Email: sumacura@gmail.com

2 Professor, Department of Demography, Center for Planning and Regional Development, Universidade Federal de

Minas Gerais, Brazil. E-mail: arbieri@cedeplar.ufmg.br

3 Professor, Department of Demography, Center for Planning and Regional Development, Universidade Federal de

Minas Gerais, Brazil. E-mail: rigotti@cedeplar.ufmg.br

2

• 1. Introduction

Migratory processes in Colombia, as in most of other Latin American countries, have been characterized by their different stages, deeply linked to economic processes and productive transformations. Initially, these processes go through a predominantly rural period, then pass through a rural-urban transition and, finally, unfound in a predominantly urban era. By the mid-20th century, Colombia was one of the Latin American countries that rapidly went through population concentration in urban areas (Kalmanovitz & López, 2006), when urban growth rates exceeded 4%, in the 1940's, and increased up to 5% by the 1950's (DANE Censuses, 1964). The rapid increase of population concentration in urban areas in Colombia was favored by three concurrent circumstances: the sudden growth of rural population, which was close to 2% per year in early 1940's (Dumas, Shultz, 1976, Flórez, 2000); the boost of industrialization in recent urban areas (López & Pradilla, 2008); and the economic and political conflicts in rural areas in the country. Income inequality and access to land ownership (Fajardo, 2009); ambiguous definitions

• f property rights in rural areas (Kalmanvitz & López, 2007); and fragmentation of power

networks between political parties in the regions (Pécaut, 2013) triggered a war known as "La Violencia" in the 1940's. The conflict, that led to approximately 200,000 deaths and 2 million displaced people, is recognized by some historians as an undeclared civil

• war. The war was initiated and led by the rivalry between Liberals and Conservatives, the

two traditional political parties (Palacios & Safford, 2002). Unemployment and the growth rural population, added to the violence, became factors of expulsion of peasants. That would not only lead to migration and forced displacement of thousands of peasants into the cities, but also their withdrawal to areas of internal and international border, which later became regions of "late colonization" (Fajardo, 2009, Fals-Borda, 1982). Structural inequities remained and the victims of that war were not repareted. In the 1960's, not only peasant guerrillas, such as Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), would arise, but a new phenomenon known as the "Armed Conflict in Colombia" would begin (Palacios & Safford, 2002; González et al., 2002). Deeper into the new century, the emergence of drug trafficking businesses, their penetration into society and institutionality, as well as the appearance of new armed actors, such as paramilitary groups, would lead the country into a situation of permanent crisis. After the decade of the 1980's, the Colombian State attempted eight peace agreements with different armed groups to resolve the crisis (Villarraga, 2016). Only in 2016, after four years of negotiations among representatives of the State and major guerrilla group FARC the Political Agreement for Peace (Drafting Peace, 2016) was signed. The

3 "beginning of the end of the war" opened opportunities for change in the history of Colombian society. At the same time, in the transition into the 21st century, Colombia, like other countries in the region, underwent profound economic, social and political transformations that would affect the life of the inhabitants throughout the country. Initially, the National Constitution of 1991 was enacted in order to overcome the conflict. The Constitution established new political provisions on civil and democratic rights, as well as political and administrative decentralization for the management of the nation's resources (García & Espinosa, 2011; Gutiérrez, 2010; Echavarría & Villamizar 2007). Consecutively, practices of deregulation and market liberalization were inaugurated, for which the country was not ready. The policy of economic opening of 1991 led to one of the biggest economic crises in Colombian history (Bushnell, 2007; Sanchez et al., 2007). During this new area, the armed conflict reached its greatest exacerbation as a result of violent confrontations between the multiple armed actors and their cross-purposes, which include: a) the control of large productive territories in order to dominate illicit crops and drug trafficking channels; b) the dispossession of land from their inhabitants; c) the actions of the State to confront illegal groups; and d) the silence or elimination of social protest (González, et al 2002, Pécaut, 2013, Robinson, J., D. Acemoglu, 2009). In this complex scenario, several questions about the behavior, volume, intensity, cause, and orientation of migratory flows within the national space inevitably arose. Although the population concentration in large urban areas driven by the expulsion from rural areas is still strong, there is still little study on the dynamics of exchange at the local level regarding both urban and rural areas linked to armed conflict. This article aims to contribute to understanding the patterns in Colombian internal migration as a part of its historical transformations that took place during the second half

• f the 20th century.

We seek to establish the balance of population gains and losses as a result of the distribution of migratory exchanges of voluntary and forced nature. We examined the information provided by sociodemographic censuses and the information system on victims of armed conflict. We analyzed the answers about the respondents' place of residence five years before the Censuses of 1993 and 2005. To achieve greater understanding, we considered different units of spatial analysis, namely the departmental unit, the provincial unit and the municipal unit and some spatial selections of municipalities, such as Metropolitan Areas. With this study, we hope to contribute to the discussions surrounding recent migrations and support the advancements in the analysis and application of demographic censuses. We also aim to contribute to the understanding of the territory in order to assist the formulation of public policies that aim to overcome structural inequalities of the Colombian society.

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• 2. Materials and methods

This study on internal migrations used the microdata collected from the censuses of 1993 and 2005 provided by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). The concept of migrant used refers to the person who has lived five years before the date of the censuses in a municipality different from the county of registration, regardless of place

• f birth, and who survived mortality and re-emigration.

As the 2005 Census incorporated questions on the causes of migration, we were able to identify internal forced migrants. These migrants correspond to people whose answers in the census identified, among several alternatives, the main cause of the change of place

• f residence as a "threat or risk to [their] life, [their] freedom or [their] physical integrity

caused by violence". To facilitate the differentiation between forced and voluntary migrants, we considered as voluntary migrants those who chose any of the other

• alternatives. We recognize that this classification may be arbitrary. However, none of the
• ther alternatives suggested or conveyed difficulty. The migration movements implicitly

involve, in fact, some degree of forcing. To understand forced displacement in Colombia, we analyzed data collected by the Demographic Censuses and Registry System of Displaced Population of the National Information Network on Victims of the Armed Conflict (RUPD-RNI) available for the period from 1985-2014. The Law of Victims and Land Restitution 1448 of 2011 defines the victim of forced displacement as "any person who has been forced to migrate within the national territory leaving their locality of habitual residence or economic activities, because their life, their physical integrity, their security or their personal freedom had been violated or directly threatened (...)". In this study, we considered the events accumulated annually, regardless of whether the same person experienced these events

• r whether they occurred within or outside the municipal boundaries.

We integrated direct estimating techniques of migration for both estimating the rates of internal "voluntary and forced" migration from the 1993 and 2005 Censuses and for forced displacement, from the RUPD-RNI for the five-year periods from 1988–1993 and from 2000–2005.

• 3. The consolidation of Colombian internal migratory pattern in the context of

demographic transformations In Colombia, demographic pressure linked to the structural factors of economic and political expulsion in rural areas, coupled with the demand for labor from the flourishing industry in the cities, made migration an almost inevitable process from 1950's onwards. From this moment on, the dominant migratory trajectories were defined. They were initially led by Colombian capitals that managed to penetrate earlier in the process of industrialization, such as Bogotá, Cali, Medellín, Bucaramanga, Pereira and Manizales,

5 located on the Andes region, and state capitals such as Barranquilla, in the Caribbean region. The cities that were able to establish industrially consolidated, since the second half of the 20th century, channels for immigration and, consequently, channels for the urbanization process (Urrutia & Posada 2007). This process can be interpreted under structuralist frameworks that may be used to illustrate causes and migration processes (Singer, 1973; Massey et al., 1993) as well as be used to explain the logic of capital accumulation systems in the space (Harvey, 2007). Under these optics, urbanization processes are a result of agglomeration of infrastructure, services and labor that allow for reduction of production costs and guarantee and accelerate the accumulation of capital. As shown in the following graph, population growth has intensified since the 1950's. The total population growth, at 3% per year, and the number of inhabitants increased from 11.5 million in 1953 to 17.5 million in 1964. The growth is more expressive in urban areas, where the population increases from 4.5 million in 1951 to 9 million in 1964, with rates close to 4.5% per year. This was due to high fertility rates, which reached the highest level in the country's history, with six children per woman in urban centers and eight in rural areas (Flórez, 2010), and due to the behavior of internal migration that, for the period, would reach rates close to 2.3% per year (Graph 1). Graph 1. Trends of urban and rural population growth 1800–2005 in Colombia. Censuses of DANE.

Source: Demographic census (no adjustments) DANE of 1825, 1835, 1843, 1851, 1864, 1871, 1918, 1938, 1951, 1964, 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005. Elaborated by the authors.

6 In less than five decades the population quadrupled. The percentual weight of the rural population, of 70% in the decade of the 1930's, turned into only 30% at the end of the

• century. As from the 20th century this population decreased in absolute values. This

happens mainly due to population loss due to emigration, as will be shown later, as the fertility rate remained at 3.8 children, on average, per woman between 1990 and 2000 (ENDS, 1990-2000). If something must be emphasized in this intense process of demographic changes, it is the accelerated process of urbanization. During half a century, the urban population multiplied 5.6 times, from 4.7 million people to 31.7 million people before the end of the century, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6% , in which fertility and migration rural origin contributed. The urban population had already surpassed the rural one since the decade of 1960, which would mean important economic and social transformations. In the process of population redistribution, the state capitals of departments that were consolidated industrially and their contiguous municipalities denominated as Metropolitan Areas grew rapidly and concentrated the population of progressive way. In 1951, Metropolitan Areas were home to about 20% of the population, while 60% were distributed in municipalities with less than 50,000 inhabitants (predominantly rural) and 20% in intermediate cities, some of which correspond to departmental capitals. This distribution was transformed, so that, in 2005, 70% of the population was concentrated between metropolitan areas and intermediate cities, and only 30% in rural municipalities (Table 1). Table 1. Population according to different spatial aggregations in Colombia. Censuses DANE 1951, 1964, 1973, 1985, 1993, 2005.

Source: DANE demographic census. Elaborated by the authors.

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• 4. Distribution of migrants between regions, departments and provinces

In political and administrative terms, the country is divided into 32 departments and 1119

• municipalities. The provinces in Colombia are groups of neighboring municipalities

within each department, which, unlike municipalities and departments, do not menage financial resources of the State. The 146 provinces, formally recognized by DANE, are defined by similarities in geographic, economic, cultural and political traditions. Some of them, in the Amazon Region and in the Orinoquia, correspond to the same departments, since they not only share the characteristics mentioned earlier, but are also divided into very few municipalities. The analysis of migratory exchanges under the provincial scale allow overcome three relevant difficulties, among many others. Firstly, problems related to low population: for a municipality, with very few inhabitants, any migratory movement will overstate the impact of migration relative to the population as a whole; secondly, the difficulty of comparing censuses when municipalities are aggregated or disaggregated in spatial and political administrative terms is overcome: in this case, municipalities that were joined with others, between the years of 1993 and 2005, were part of the same provinces, which did not affect the comparison of the rates of migration. Thirdly, since most departments have internally abrupt geographical, cultural and economic contrasts, which can determine differentiated areas of attraction of population or population expulsion, these differences are diluted when the unit of analysis is the department: in the province scale these areas can be differentiated. Due to the availability of census microdata, it is possible to verify that the volume of residential exchanges among municipalities or among provinces is expressive, but they are hidden when the departmental scale is privileged in analysis. The following table shows the size of the migration according to the spatial scale (Table 2). Table 2. Size of accumulated migration and fixed-date migration 1988-1993 and 2000-2005 to different scales of spatial analysis in Colombia. Censuses of 1993 and 2005.

Source: Demographic Census DANE (without adjustment). Elaborated by the authors

8 While in 1993, 22.5% of the population resided in a different department from where they were born, the proportion increases up to 32.4% when the reference unit is the province, and to 40% when the unit is the municipality. The ratio is similar for the number of migrants by place of residence five years before the census. In 1993, about 2.4 million people (7.45% of the total population) were identified as residing in a different department from the one where they lived five years earlier. If the unit of analysis is the municipality, the total number of migrants increases to 4.1 million of people (about 13%). For every 100 interdepartmental migrants, there were 180 intermunicipal migrants. We must highlight the predominance of exchanges between provinces different. Which remained high, close to 82%, during the two periods. Only 18% of the migrants moved from municipalities belonging to the same province. The percentage share of interdepartmental migrants increased slightly between the two reference periods, from 57.5% to 59%, but the percentage of intra-departmental migrants decreased from 43% to 41%. This behavior corroborates with the strong inertia of migratory trends, established since the second half of the 20th century. The migration flows, predominantly rural, happen from of municipalities to intermediate cities in the same province or department. In other case, from the main cities of the country to its surrounding municipalities in metropolitan

• areas. A new approach on exchanges with these areas will be presented below.
• 5. Balance of population gains and losses as a result of migratory exchanges in

the period from 1988-1993 and from 2000-2005 As for the application of direct migration techniques, early results reveal that the immigration rates were expressive in metropolitan areas, in international frontier areas, and in provinces of the Eastern Plains4. During the period from 1988-1993, most of the provinces located in areas of low population density, such as the Eastern Plains region, and four international boundaries, such as the borders with Panama, Venezuela (north-east and south-east) and Ecuador, were recipients of important flows of migrants, with annual rates that surpassed 40 per thousand. The immigration into the Eastern Plains region and international boundaries reflects on the dynamics of population attraction that propel the oil drilling economy, in the departments of Casanare and Arauca (Flórez, 1999), and the intensive trade that tends to favor certain frontier areas with fragile presence of the State. These, of course, can

4 Due to the census coverage restrictions, the provinces of Guajira Department, in the extreme north of the

country, and the provinces of Vaupés, Guainía, and Amazon, over the Amazon Region, were excluded from the analysis.

9 become areas of trade of goods, both licit and illicit, which encourage the attraction of capital and populations. The municipalities surrounding the city of Bogotá experienced immigration rates higher than 20 per thousand annually. These municipalities present very different economic dynamics, which therefore attract populations that diversify productive sectors. In the surrounding municipalities to the south and west of Bogota, industrial development centers, flower production and export centers were consolidated. That sector shows the strong medium and low qualification population attraction, workforce, for industry and floriculture. On the other hand, the municipalities located in the northern part of the capital, predominate areas of residential growth that attract families from with higher incomes. For the period 2000-2005, although the magnitude of immigration rates decreased considerably in all Colombian provinces, the trends of migratory attraction persist from the previous period. From the perspective of the emigration, it is observed that some of the provinces that presented the highest emigration rates, reciprocally, experienced high attraction rates. The intensity and volume were lower in the 2000-2005 period. The highest rates of expulsion were reported in the provinces of Llanos Orientales, some provinces of the Región del Amazonas, as well as in the eastern part of the department of Antioquia. We emphasize that in these provinces the presence of armed insurgency groups was common during the period of reference, which was also revealed in the volume of forced displacement. From the balance of inflows and outflows of migrants, both the oil-producing provinces in the departments of Casanare and Arauca, and the surrounding provinces in the Región Cafetera, over the Cordillera Central, became the areas of strong immigrant winners for the period from 1988-1993. With less intensity, provinces in the north of the Colombia, in the Región Caribe, also gained population. Other metropolitan areas, different from those located in the central Andes, also increase the immigration in the five-year period from 1988-1993, as Barranquilla and Santa Marta,

• n the Caribbean coast, and Cúcuta on the border with Venezuela.

On the other hand, expressive net rates in municipalities of the Pacific coast on the border with Panama, as well as the net population gains in the region known as Magdalena Medio, draw attention. These have been regions of enormous complexity. In the Region they overlap productive sectors as oil exploitation, extensive livestock production, gold mining, as well as the production and trafficking of psychotropic substances, which not

• nly attracted labor, but also armed groups that fight over the control of the territories.

10 In contrast, the areas with greatest losses of emigration were the provinces of the Andina Región, the provinces of the Pacífica Region (except for those near the border with Panama), the provinces of the Llanos Orientales Region and the provinces of the Amazónica Región. All of them maintain an expulsion tradition (Map 1). Map 1. Net migration rates by place of residence five years earlier of Censuses, at the scale Province. Censuses 1993 – 2005 The behavior of net migration rates for the period from 2000-2005 shows significant contrasts with the previous period. Provinces that experienced net rates of negative migration would become regions of attraction a decade later. In particular, the areas of international borders with Panama, Ecuador and Venezuela. In the Darién Region, on the border with Panama, from 1988-1993, the rates of migration were negative, oscillating from -1 to -10 per thousand inhabitants annually. This negative tendency of migration rates switched between 2000 and 2005. The net rates were not only positive but also higher than 20 per thousand inhabitants. This region has been known as an area of dispute between different armed groups. Its location at the border crossing with Central America, its proximity to the two oceans, the natural wealth in the Pacific forest and the productivity of its lands, as the exportation of banana, make it a strategic territory for the attraction of population. Among the provinces that maintained positive net rates between the two periods are: Metropolitan areas; provinces with extractive traditions and oil exploitation, on the departments of Casanare, Arauca and on the Región del Magdalena Medio; as well as the region of coffee producing tradition, on the Andes Central.

11 The trend towards expulsion would be preserved in most provinces with a small-scale agricultural tradition on the Andean cordilleras, some located in the low plains of the Caribbean region; and those that are part of the tropical jungles of the Amazon.

• 6. Behavior of migration and forced displacement

Forced emigration refers to forced emigration rates (TEF) calculated from the 2005

• census. The data used in this study corresponds to migrants who declared that they had

emigrated to another municipality in 2000 because their lives were in danger in the municipality of origin. Forced displacement refers to forced displacement rates (TDF) of people who have fled their homes, who have left, or not, the municipality and who have, independently, registered themselves in the RUPD-RNI, between 2001-2005. As discussed in the methodological section, the concept of migration considers migrants those who have changed their residence and who have crossed political-administrative

• limits. The 2005 Census does not measure the possible forced displaced persons who had

changed their residence within the same municipality. This means that the volume of forced migration is considerably lower than the volume of displaced people registered by the official source of the RUPD-RNI, which affects the calculation of rates since the population at risk is larger with the second source of information. From the comparison of rates, the first point to note is that the geographic area of the forced expulsion recorded by the two sources is the same. Due to the nature of the sources

• f information, the intensity of expulsion on the province scale is different, but not its

location (Map 2). Map 2. Provinces of emigration forced and displacement forced 2000-2005 in Colombia.

12 The geography of immigration rates of forced displaced persons also indicates the areas where their reception is most intense (Map 3). For the two sources, it is possible to

• bserve that the areas of attraction and expulsion of the displaced are corresponding. The

same applies for the number of municipalities that participate as receivers decrease down to 1019 municipalities. This corresponds to 90% of municipalities, according to the

• fficial source RUPD-RNI.

Map 3. Provinces of forced attraction displaced 2000 - 2005 in Colombia. The grouping of municipalities into microregions becomes very useful in understanding the pattern of forced displacement. The provinces of attraction of displaced people that reveals the Census 2005 allow us to verify that a portion of the displaced migrates to municipalities of its own province, possibly the poles of secondary attraction, that in several cases correspond to the capitals of the departments. This allows us to verify that not all the displaced are concentrated in the capital of the country, but in the capitals or the poles of intra-regional attraction.

• 6. Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest that one of the main change of pattern in migration Colombia experienced during the 20th century, precisely from 1970’s onwards, is the dominance of the peripheral municipalities of state capital within metropolitan areas as new centers of migratory attraction, in contrast to the slowdown demographic of capital cities.

13 The analysis of the migratory exchanges confirms that, in case of Colombia, capital accumulation processes, which functions as an articulating center of the immigrant population, are not confined to historically consolidated cities as part of the process of industrialization and their respective areas of influence. In this new historical stage, migrations converge to areas for capital accumulation not necessarily linked to industrial growth but linked to various forms of agribusiness, lawful

• r illicit. We confirmed two clear tendencies. On one hand, for the contribution of

migrations for the urban peripheries and for international and internal frontier areas. And,

• n the other hand, for the loss of population from the centers urban, as well as from the

rural areas with expelling tradition. Considering these migration trends, which were already expected, different situations allow us to conjecture that this one will be maintained. Where the expulsion of the population was more intense, due to forced displacement, do not correspond to the Andean areas, but to areas that were historically excluded from the benefits of development. That is, low-density regions, between mountain ranges, in tropical forests, on the Pacific coast and on international borders. This is where the peasant communities - of late colonization -, the majority of indigenous communities and Afro-descendant populations are located. It is in these territories, where, precisely, the surface and deep of soil is disputed for new development and infrastructure projects, for the exploitation of oil, for extensive and industrial agriculture and monoculture and for livestock. Firstly, we cannot ignored that, event though the peace agreement was signed, the structural conditions of expulsion in rural areas persist. The agreements for to "Post- Conflict" do not imply a transformation of the agro-export economic model and of primary exploitation, nor substantive changes on the inequality in the concentration of the land to favor and strengthen the productive articulation of the population in the predominance areas of rural. Conversely, the mechanisms underlying the attraction of migrants, linked to various economic sectors — legal or illegal, formal or informal — in consolidated urban areas and border areas, plausibly will favor immigration. Secondly, the lower costs in the access to housing in the municipalities surrounding the core cities will continue to influence, compared with those that are positioned in the main

• cities. This will favor the immigration of both former residents of these cities and migrants

who, in less favored conditions, come from remote regions of the country in search of new opportunities. The country needs a new census to recognize and update not only growth rates and trends but, above all, the basis for population development planning and the challenges that involve the "new post-conflict era".

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