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Intergenerational Issues: shifts in progress, politics (and policies?)
INET Conference, Edinburgh
Torsten Bell
October 2017
@TorstenBell / @resfoundation
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(Relative) social mobility as THE intergenerational debate
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Intergenerational Issues: shifts in progress, politics (and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Intergenerational Issues: shifts in progress, politics (and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Intergenerational Issues: shifts in progress, politics (and policies?) INET Conference, Edinburgh Torsten Bell October 2017 @TorstenBell / @resfoundation 1 (Relative) social mobility as THE intergenerational debate 2 Intergenerational
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Intergenerational mobility – everyone’s on about it
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‘the only thing that counts is not where you come from but what you are’ (Tony Blair, Prime Minister, 2001) ‘we have strived to deliver equal opportunity — that success doesn’t depend on being born into wealth or privilege, it depends on effort and merit’ (Barack Obama, 2013)
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Intergenerational mobility – it drove the social investment state
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- Early years interventions
- Parenting support
- Deprivation weighted education spend
- Higher education participation & access
- Family income support/childcare
- Asset based welfare
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A thought experiment on generational progress
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Thought 1: cohort progress, no social mobility
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.
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Thought 2: cohort progress, perfect mobility
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Thought 3: no cohort progress, perfect mobility
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Thought 4: who is angriest?
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Are the times a changin’?
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This is clearly crisis related – but not just the crisis…
11 Growth in pay at age 25 between successive five-year birth cohorts: Real weekly pay (RPIJ-adjusted), UK
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And no – this isn’t just Brexit Britain 1
39% 78% 66% 65% 63% 56% 49% 48% 45% 42% 40% 39% 37% 34% 32% 28% 27% 26% 24% 22% 21% 15% 10% 40% 7% 23% 20% 25% 27% 39% 44% 30% 37% 37% 39% 38% 48% 46% 38% 34% 43% 58% 50% 55% 60% 71% Total China Peru India Indonesia Brazil South Africa Mexico Russia Poland Argentina US Turkey Italy Germany Japan Sweden Australia South Korea Great Britain Spain Belgium France
Better Worse
Whether young people will have a better or worse life than their parents, by country: 2016
Q: To what extent, if at all, do you feel that today’s youth will have a better or worse life than their parents, or will it be about the same? Notes: Base of 18,810 adults aged 16+ in 22 countries, fieldwork conducted September-October 2016. Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey 2017
“Will today’s young people will have a better or worse life than their parents?”
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And no – this isn’t just Brexit Britain 2
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- 30%
- 25%
- 20%
- 15%
- 10%
- 5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Greece UK Portugal Italy France Belgium Germany Spain Finland US Denmark Netherlands Sweden Norway
50 to 59 year olds Under 30s
Change in real earnings between 2006 and 2014, selected age bands
Source: Eurostat
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Where for politics and policy?
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Recognition and division
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“There is a growing divide between a more prosperous
- lder generation and a struggling younger generation…”
Theresa May, July 2016
19% 22% 23% 29% 39% 47% 58% 69% 66% 62% 63% 55% 44% 37% 27% 19% 9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Which party did you vote for? (2017 General Election, by age-group)
Source: RF analysis of YouGov, How Britain Voted 2017
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Policy shifts?
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Big picture
- Competition vs previous agendas
- Existing agenda – new arguments
The micro
- Revisit who pays for new costs
- Life stage or cohort redistribution
- Opportunity races – public vs private
- The return of inheritance
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Intergenerational Issues: shifts in progress, politics (and policies?)
INET Conference, Edinburgh
Torsten Bell
October 2017
@TorstenBell / @resfoundation
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