Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning in Sydney Presented by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning in Sydney Presented by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 13, 2023 329 likes •856 views

Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning in Sydney Presented by Ben Hendriks Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney TOPICS History of development and land use planning in Sydney Key growth challenges for metropolitan

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning in Sydney

Presented by Ben Hendriks

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

  • History of development and land use

planning in Sydney

  • Key growth challenges for metropolitan

planning in Sydney

  • Does Sydney have the planning capacity

to grow without investment in new development corridors?

  • Theoretical process for planning along

Anzac Parade Corridor with potential extension of light rail

TOPICS

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

History of development and land use planning in Sydney

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

PRIME CBD AND GROWTH OF SECONDARY CENTRES

County of Cumberland Plan (1951)

EVOLUTION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN SYDNEY

Map Source: Cumberland County Council (1951)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

THE EMERGENCE OF THE POLYCENTRIC CORRIDOR CITY

Sydney Region Outline Plan (1968) Copenhagen ‘Finger Plan’ (1947)

EVOLUTION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN SYDNEY

Map Source: State Planning Authority of NSW (1968)

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THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE POLYCENTRIC “CITY OF CITIES”

City of Cities – A Plan for Sydney’s Future (2005)

EVOLUTION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN SYDNEY

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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THE 21ST CENTURY POLYCENTRIC CORRIDOR CITY

A Plan for Growing Sydney (2014)

EVOLUTION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN SYDNEY

Map Source: Department of Planning and Environment (2014)

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HISTORICALLY, MOST OF SYDNEY’S URBAN GROWTH OCCURRED ALONG RAILWAY LINES

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Map Source: Department of Planning (2005)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Key growth challenges for metropolitan planning in Sydney

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH

Sydney’s growth in population between 2011–2036 alone, is forecast to be the size of the entire 2011 population of the Brisbane metropolitan area.

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH

An extra 2M people between 2011 and 2036

Data Sources: ABS, BTS and DP&E

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

An extra 900K between 2011 and 2036

Data Sources: ABS, BTS and DP&E

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Both population and population growth in Sydney’s west is exceeding the east…

Population–Jobs Imbalance

Data Source: BTS projections (2014)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

However, jobs in the east will continue to outnumber the number of jobs in the west, creating a population–jobs imbalance and creating a significant west– east transport task, further burdening an already overstretched transport network

ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Population–Jobs Imbalance

Data Source: BTS projections (2014)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Transport Reaching Capacity

116% 107% 126% 96% 122% 114% 134% 121% 120% 71% 134% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Most railway lines are already above 100% passenger loading.

Data Source: BTS (2015) – AM peak average passenger loadings at Central

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Transport Reaching Capacity

The road network is also struggling to cope, with decreasing travel speeds.

Data Source: RMS Roads Report via the Daily Telegraph

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ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Limited Transport Accessibility

SNAMUTS shows that much of Sydney is “without minimum service”, with the average score is 13.2 – rating in the “poor” category. Data Source: SNAMUTS

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

ISSUES FACING THE GROWTH OF SYDNEY

Decreasing household sizes

Even without the population growth Sydney is experiencing, more dwellings are required due to reducing household sizes.

Data Source: Australian Institute of Family Statistics

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

  • The west is growing in population faster than the east but jobs

in the west are not keeping up

  • To resolve this, either:

– West–east transport links need to have capacity improvements; and/or – More jobs need to be located in Sydney’s west, which would also reduce commute times for people in Sydney’s west

  • Strategic plans help to ensure an orderly and coordinated

development of Sydney, including the provision of the infrastructure necessary to sustain the population growth

  • Public transport is a vital component to this growth, as it helps

to unlock development capacity through more intensive land uses, such as with transit-oriented developments

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

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Does Sydney have the planning capacity to grow without investment in new development corridors?

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

CAN SYDNEY’S INFRASTRUCTURE COPE?

In 1981, London had the same population as is forecasted for Sydney in 2041. This map shows the London Tube network in the 1980s and illustrates how extensive a public transport network is required for a population of 6.6M. Will Sydney’s public transport network in 2041 be able to meet the task?

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1.62 1.54 1.12 1.11 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.92 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.82 0.74 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.57 0.56 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.29 0.28 0.25 0.24 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Botany Bay Canada Bay Sydney Rockdale Lane Cove Auburn Burwood Ku-ring-gai Ryde Wollondilly Parramatta Strathfield Marrickville Penrith Holroyd Canterbury Liverpool Camden Willoughby Randwick Hurstville Bankstown Blacktown North Sydney Pittwater The Hills Hunters Hill Campbellto… Warringah Kogarah Waverley Ashfield Hornsby Leichhardt Fairfield Sutherland Manly Hawkesbury Blue … Mosman Woollahra

Average for Sydney Metro Area: 0.7:1

Source: BTS Population Forecasts – September 2014 Release – OPD and DP&E Sydney Region Net Dwelling Completions Methodology: (2011–2015 actual growth [net dwelling completions]) / (2011–2015 forecast growth [BTS projections])

FORECASTS VS ACTUAL COMPLETIONS (2011–15)

Actual dwelling completions are falling far short of BTS forecasts in most council areas. Only 5 councils in the Sydney metropolitan area are meeting/exceeding projections.

BTS Forecast Level

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Red line source/methodology: Sum of BTS 2036 OPD for Sydney LGAs – BTS 2011 OPD / 25 for annual growth required Blue line source/methodology: Sum of Draft Subregional strategies’ 2004–31 LGA population targets / 27 for annual growth Green line source/methodology: Sum of Sydney LGAs’ net dwelling completions per financial year

DWELLINGS FORECASTS VS ACTUAL COMPLETIONS (HISTORICAL)

There has not been a single year in the past decade where BTS forecasts have been met.

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HOW WILL SYDNEY’S GROWTH BE MANAGED?

The levels of strategic and statutory planning

State Plan Metropolitan/ Regional Plans District Plans Council (City) Plans Precinct Master Plans

EP&AA

SEPPs LEPs DCPs

Strategic Plans Statutory Documents

* DCPs are not statutory documents, but supplement LEPs with more detailed development controls.

Sydney Metropolitan Strategy

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WHERE CAN THE GROWTH OCCUR?

Growth Centres

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

NORTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE SOUTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE

70,000 new dwellings 200,000 new residents 110,000 new dwellings 300,000 new residents

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WHERE CAN THE GROWTH OCCUR?

The Metro Strategy’s Priority Precincts

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

TZ TZ Name Dwellings Growth Capacity Limitations 2606 Westfield_Hurstville Station_North 4038 High 1552 Macquarie Park_Wicks Rd and Epping Rd 3177 No 1543 Macquarie Park_LachlanAv and Peach Tree Rd 2754 No 1541 Morling College 2736 No 285 Rosebery_Stedman St and Spring St 2375 No 286 Rosebury_Dalmeny Ave and Kimberley Grove 2346 No 276 Hpm Industries 2268 No 1806 Zenith Centre_Chatswood Station_West 2233 High 1575 Coorabel Hospital 2231 High 260 Erskineville 2104 No 1106 Carlingford Station 2007 Medium 4979 Penrith CBD_Penrith Station_South 1997 No 219 Redfern Oval 1964 Medium 279 Green Square Station_North 1777 No 904 Ashfield Station_South 1709 Medium 411 Mascot_Qantas HO_Mascot Station 1699 No 720 North Strathfield Station_East 1664 Medium 2702 Wolli Creek Station 1658 No 158 Broadway Shopping Centre_Glebe_Mountain St and Small St 1643 High 215 Redfern Station 1535 No 233 Broadway Shopping Centre_Glebe_Glebe St and Cowper St 1515 High

DO IDENTIFIED GROWTH AREAS ACTUALLY HAVE CAPACITY TO GROW?

Top 20 Non-Greenfield Growth Travel Zones (2011–36)

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DO IDENTIFIED GROWTH AREAS ACTUALLY HAVE CAPACITY TO GROW?

Hurstville – 4,038 additional dwellings identified, but most sites constrained

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DO IDENTIFIED GROWTH AREAS ACTUALLY HAVE CAPACITY TO GROW?

Chatswood – 2233 additional dwellings identified, but almost entire TZ constrained

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

  • There is a planning capacity problem in

Sydney which is constraining housing supply

  • This impacts on affordability and the

economy

  • There are large tracts of land available but

these are poorly served by public transport

  • As such, investment in public transport is vital

to Sydney’s growth and will unlock areas such as Camellia or Anzac Parade Corridor

WHERE ARE WE HEADING?

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Theoretical process for development

  • f corridor strategy for Anzac

Parade extension of light rail

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LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Constraints Analysis

Identification

  • f Opportunity

Sites

Market Analysis Take-up Analysis Land Use Opportunities Output

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LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Modelling of three scenarios

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Identification of constrained sites through a ‘sieve’ mapping process:

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Constraints analysis

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Identification of Opportunity Sites

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Example: Bankstown

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Example: Bankstown – Constraints

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Example: Bankstown – Existing Planning

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

(2–4 storeys) (5–7 storeys) (8 storeys) (9+ storeys) (3–5 storeys) (1–2 storeys)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Example: Bankstown – Future Land Use

Source: Department of Planning & Environment

(2–4 storeys) (5–7 storeys) (8 storeys) (9+ storeys) (3–5 storeys) (1–2 storeys)

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Market analysis

Residential/ commercial supply

  • Research pipeline supply based on properties that are approved, under

construction and proposed

Property value growth

  • Historical growth of property values
  • Extrapolation of property value growths based on trends and project-

induced uplift

Property turnover and redevelopment speed

  • Historical analysis of select property transactions to understand historical

turnover rates and profile by redevelopment speed by property type

  • Based on case studies and earlier analyses, model potential demand and

rate of supply take-up

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Take-up rates based on lot size and ownership are applied on capacity figures to calculate likely actual development: LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Take-up rates

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LAND USE ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Anzac Parade Extension – Preliminary Analysis

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  • To inform broader planning strategies
  • n metropolitan growth
  • To input into value sharing analysis
  • To input into demand modelling
  • To develop statutory planning controls

HOW IS THE CORRIDOR STRATEGY USED?

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Integrated Transport and Land Use Planning in Sydney

Suite 1204B, Level 12, 179 Elizabeth Street Sydney, New South Wales 2000 info@mecone.com.au mecone.com.au