Int ntegrat egrated ed Me Meteorology teorology-Ae Aerosol - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Int ntegrat egrated ed Me Meteorology teorology-Ae Aerosol rosol- Che hemist mistry y Mo Model delli ling ng for or NWP WP Applic plicatio ations: ns: - Present esent Status, tus, Future ure Steps ps and Chal alle lenges nges - Bent t H. Sass s (DMI), ), Alexan ander der Baklan lanov ov (WMO/DM /DMI), I), Francoi cois s Bouyssel yssel (Météo téo-France rance) )

CON ONTE TENTS NTS 1. 1. Motiv tivation ation for or imp impro roved ed model odel treatment tment of aerosols osols and d chemi emistr try 2. Envi nviro ro-HIRL HIRLAM AM : reali liza zati tion on of sim implifi plified d aerosol sol-tre treatment atment 3. 3. Outc utcom ome from om status us- and planning nning meeting ting 30 Sept. ept. 2014 regard rdin ing aero rosol sol-chem hemistry istry in AROME, ME, HARMO MONIE, NIE, HIRL RLAM • strate tegic gic goal l • practica ticalit litie ies s • challen lenges s How w will ll an optima imal l strate ategy gy loo ook k like ke for r reali lizin zing im impr proved ed aerosol sol effects ts in in opera perati tion onal al limi mited ed area models dels ?

Including aerosols and chemistry effects in NWP MOTIVATION (1): Improv roved ed aeros osol ol treat atment ment provi vide des a a better er framew amework ork for r • Predi dicti ction on of visibil sibility ty and fog g • Time e evolution lution of clouds uds and rain Aerosol • Diurnal rnal course rse of meteor orologi ological cal process sses weath eather er paramet ameter ers, s, e.g e.g. . as a resu sult lt of changing nging Cloud radi diati ation on flux uxes es micro- radiation on physics

Including aerosols and chemistry effects in NWP MOTIVATION (2): Improv roved ed aeros osol ol treat atment ment provi vide des a a better er framew amework ork for r • Model elli ling ng of biologi logical cal eff ffect ects , , e.g e.g. . fore reca casts sts of pollen llen – Abo bout ut 20 % of the Europ ropean ean populat ulation ion suffer ffers from om aller ergeni enic reacti ctions ons from m pollen len and the numbe ber is stead adil ily incre reas asing ing ! • Air r quali lity ty predi dicti ction on and relate ated posibil sibility ity to monitor itor and predi dict ct impa pact ct on human an health lth !

Enviro-HIRLAM online model history Development:  Started by DMI team 15 years ago  1st European online coupled model with feedbacks (WMO, 2007)  HIRLAM Chemical Branch  HIRLAM-B  joined: universities from several countries  Applications => NWP, AQ, pollen, climate, …

Enviro ro - HIRL RLAM AM cha haract racteris eristics tics Tropos opospheri pheric c Sulfu lfur Chemistry mistry Modul dule • Aerosol precursors and oxidants: SO 2 , H 2 SO 4 , DMS, O 3 , NO 2 , H 2 O 2 , OH • Subdivided into: Day-time / Night-time / In clouds ( Feichter et al., 1995 ) Sedime iment ntatio ation, , Wet & Dry Depositi sition on Modu dules les • SED – Seinfeld & Pandis, 1998 • WET – in-cloud/below cloud scavenging ( Croft et al., 2009) • DRY – prescribed dep. velocities for 7 modes ( Roeckner et al., 1992) Anthropogeni hropogenic & Interac eractive tive Natur ural al Emis issi sion ons s • Sea Salt Zakey et al., 2008 Anthrop. TNO (Kuenen et al., 2010) • Dust Zakey et al., 2006 Wildfires FMI (http://is4fires.fmi.fi) • DMS (ocean) Nightingale, 2000 Clou oud-Ae Aeros rosol ol Intera eractio ctions Modu dule le • STRACO ( Sass, 2002 ), activation ( Abdul-Razzak et al., 2002 ), • self-collection, sedimentation, evaporation

Aerosol Microphysics in Enviro-HIRLAM Considered Compounds: Sulfate Black Organic Sea Salt Mineral Dust Carbon Matter Sulf: nucl./ait./accu./coars – soluble BC: ait. – soluble/insoluble, accu./coarse – insoluble OC: ait. – soluble/insoluble, accu./coarse – insoluble SS: accu./coarse – soluble Dust: accu./coarse – soluble, accu./coarse – insoluble

Cloud Microphysics Representation of liquid phase processes in STRACO Main processes of importance for liquid droplet number: • Nucleation generation of new droplets (Abdul-Razzak & Ghan, 2000) • Self collection coagulation within category (Seifert and Beheng, 2006) • Auto conversion coagulation out of category • Evaporation droplet size below activation

Climate and Geophysics Stud udy y us using ing Env nviro iro-HIRLAM HIRLAM Mo Model del Se Setup tup en 0.15 o x 0.15 o Horiz rizont ntal res.: Vertical ical res.: 40 hybrid levels Time step: 360 s Forecast length: ngth: 6 hrs (spin-up 7 days) Data assimi imila lation on: surface / every 6 hr Feedb dbacks: on/off Emis issio ions: TNO / IS4FIRES SS / DUST / DMS Meteo ICs/BC /BCs: ECMWF-IFS (0.15 o x 0.15 o ) Chem ICs/BC /BCs: MOZART3-IFS og (1.125 o x 1.125 o ) 3/2/2015 Dias 9 ens

Climate and Geophysics PM PM 2.5 .5 – Enviro-HIRLAM Model Forecasts vs. Observations en og PM 2.5 observations are from http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/databases/airbase/ 3/2/2015 Dias 10 ens

Enviro-HIRLAM: aerosol – cloud interactions Precipitation amount (12 hours accumulated) of reference HIRLAM (left) and Enviro-HIRLAM with aerosol – cloud interactions (right) vs. surface synoptic observations at WMO station 6670 at Zurich, Switzerland (lat: 47.47; lon: 8.53) during Jul 2010.

Enviro-HIRLAM: aerosol – cloud interactions Frequency distribution in [mm/ 3 hour] of stratiform precipitation (left) and convective precipitation (right). Comparison of 1-moment (Reference HIRLAM) and 2-moment (Enviro-HIRLAM with aerosol – cloud interactions) cloud microphysics STRACO (Unden et al., 2002) schemes.

Enviro-HIRLAM for pollen forecasting

Enviro-HIRLAM Research & Development Posters  Improvement of Enviro-HIRLAM weather forecasting through inclusion of cloud-aerosol interactions by Roman Nuterman et al.  Enviro-HIRLAM modelling of regional and urban meteorology and chemistry patterns for summer 2009 Paris campaign by Alexander Mahura et al.  Birch pollen modeling for Denmark: spring 2006 episode by Alexander Kurganskiy et al.  Science-education: online integrated modelling of aerosol- chemistry-meteorology effects using Enviro-HIRLAM by Alexander Mahura et al.

Outc tcome ome from om status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept. pt. 2014 ( aeroso osol-chemis chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLA LAM) M) Strate rategic gic goal: l: buil ild d a comm mmon n system em for r research rch and d opera rati tion ons s • An on-line modelling approach is consistent with ECMWF developments for COPERNICUS • HARMONIE is defined as the common platform • It is suggested to formalize the collaboration initiative as a part of the Météo- France-HIRLAM-ALADIN future coordination activities. • It is recommended to obey the agreed way of developing cycles in the IFS community. There is already a practice at Météo-France to make use of Meso- NH developments in Arome evolutions • The activities should be included into the HIRLAM-ALADIN planning (rolling work plan).

Outc tcome ome from om status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept. pt. 2014 ( aeroso osol-chemis chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLA LAM) M) Practica ticalitie lities s • Aeros osol/ l/chemistr chemistry y branch: ch: It is suggested to build an aerosol/chemical branch for HARMONIE. • ECMWF ’ s investment in aerosol data -ass assimil milatio ation n shoul uld d be accoun unted ted for Development of HARMONIE with online aerosols should make use of the ECMWF C-IFS/ MACC aerosol analysis as initial state for higher resolution LAMs , in order to start forecasts from a realistic spatial distribution. Also aerosol information from lateral boundaries should be considered. • The compl plex exity ity of aeros osol ol-chemistry: chemistry: realize that the chosen model complexity in a given LAM setup should depend on the purpose . Complex gas chemistry may be important for air quality but not for short range NWP  code options needed ! • Result ults s from process cess studies dies (impact studies) carried out with Meso-NH and Enviro-HIRLAM should be utilized to select the most important processes to account for and the proper balance in complexity for a given purpose