Int ntegrat egrated ed Me Meteorology teorology-Ae Aerosol - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Int ntegrat egrated ed Me Meteorology teorology-Ae Aerosol rosol- Che hemist mistry y Mo Model delli ling ng for

• r NWP

WP Applic plicatio ations: ns:

• Present

esent Status, tus, Future ure Steps ps and Chal alle lenges nges -

Bent t H. Sass s (DMI), ), Alexan ander der Baklan lanov

• v (WMO/DM

/DMI), I), Francoi cois s Bouyssel yssel (Météo téo-France rance) )

CON ONTE TENTS NTS

1. 1. Motiv tivation ation for

• r imp

impro roved ed model

• del treatment

tment of aerosols

• sols and

d chemi emistr try

• 2. Envi

nviro ro-HIRL HIRLAM AM : reali liza zati tion

• n of sim

implifi plified d aerosol sol-tre treatment atment 3. 3. Outc utcom

• me from
• m status

us- and planning nning meeting ting 30 Sept.

• ept. 2014

regard rdin ing aero rosol sol-chem hemistry istry in AROME, ME, HARMO MONIE, NIE, HIRL RLAM

• strate

tegic gic goal l

• practica

ticalit litie ies s

• challen

lenges s How w will ll an optima imal l strate ategy gy loo

• ok

k like ke for r reali lizin zing im impr proved ed aerosol sol effects ts in in opera perati tion

• nal

al limi mited ed area models dels ?

Including aerosols and chemistry effects in NWP MOTIVATION (1):

Improv roved ed aeros

• sol
• l treat

atment ment provi vide des a a better er framew amework

• rk for

r

• Predi

dicti ction

• n of visibil

sibility ty and fog g

• Time

e evolution lution of clouds uds and rain

• Diurnal

rnal course rse of meteor

• rologi
• logical

cal weath eather er paramet ameter ers, s, e.g e.g. . as a resu sult lt of changing nging radi diati ation

• n flux

uxes es

Aerosol process sses radiation

• n

Cloud micro- physics

Including aerosols and chemistry effects in NWP MOTIVATION (2):

Improv roved ed aeros

• sol
• l treat

atment ment provi vide des a a better er framew amework

• rk for

r

• Model

elli ling ng of biologi logical cal eff ffect ects , , e.g e.g. . fore reca casts sts of pollen llen – Abo bout ut 20 %

• f the Europ

ropean ean populat ulation ion suffer ffers from

• m aller

ergeni enic reacti ctions

• ns from

m pollen len and the numbe ber is stead adil ily incre reas asing ing !

• Air

r quali lity ty predi dicti ction

• n and relate

ated posibil sibility ity to monitor itor and predi dict ct impa pact ct on human an health lth !

Development:  Started by DMI team 15 years ago 1st European online coupled model with feedbacks (WMO, 2007)  HIRLAM Chemical Branch  HIRLAM-B  joined: universities from several countries

• Applications => NWP, AQ, pollen, climate, …

Enviro-HIRLAM online model history

Enviro ro - HIRL RLAM AM cha haract racteris eristics tics

Tropos

• pospheri

pheric c Sulfu lfur Chemistry mistry Modul dule

• Aerosol precursors and oxidants: SO2, H2SO4, DMS, O3, NO2, H2O2, OH
• Subdivided into: Day-time / Night-time / In clouds (Feichter et al.,

1995) Sedime iment ntatio ation, , Wet & Dry Depositi sition

• n Modu

dules les

• SED – Seinfeld & Pandis, 1998
• WET – in-cloud/below cloud scavenging (Croft et al., 2009)
• DRY – prescribed dep. velocities for 7 modes (Roeckner et al., 1992)

Anthropogeni hropogenic & Interac eractive tive Natur ural al Emis issi sion

• ns

s

• Sea Salt

Zakey et al., 2008 Anthrop. TNO (Kuenen et al., 2010)

• Dust

Zakey et al., 2006 Wildfires FMI (http://is4fires.fmi.fi)

• DMS (ocean) Nightingale, 2000

Clou

• ud-Ae

Aeros rosol

• l Intera

eractio ctions Modu dule le

• STRACO (Sass, 2002), activation (Abdul-Razzak et al., 2002),
• self-collection, sedimentation, evaporation

Aerosol Microphysics in Enviro-HIRLAM

Considered Compounds: Sulfate Black Organic Sea Salt Mineral Dust Carbon Matter

Sulf: nucl./ait./accu./coars – soluble BC: ait. – soluble/insoluble, accu./coarse – insoluble OC: ait. – soluble/insoluble, accu./coarse – insoluble SS: accu./coarse – soluble Dust: accu./coarse – soluble, accu./coarse – insoluble

Cloud Microphysics Representation of liquid phase processes in STRACO

Main processes of importance for liquid droplet number:

• Nucleation

(Abdul-Razzak & Ghan, 2000)

• Self collection

(Seifert and Beheng, 2006)

• Auto conversion
• Evaporation

generation of new droplets coagulation within category coagulation out of category droplet size below activation

en

• g

ens

Stud udy y us using ing Env nviro iro-HIRLAM HIRLAM Mo Model del Se Setup tup

Climate and Geophysics

3/2/2015 Dias 9

Horiz rizont ntal res.: 0.15o x 0.15o Vertical ical res.: 40 hybrid levels Time step: 360 s Forecast length: ngth: 6 hrs (spin-up 7 days) Data assimi imila lation

• n:

surface / every 6 hr Feedb dbacks:

• n/off

Emis issio ions: TNO / IS4FIRES SS / DUST / DMS Meteo ICs/BC /BCs: ECMWF-IFS (0.15o x 0.15o) Chem ICs/BC /BCs: MOZART3-IFS (1.125o x 1.125o)

en

• g

ens

Climate and Geophysics

3/2/2015 Dias 10

PM PM2.5

.5 – Enviro-HIRLAM Model Forecasts

• vs. Observations

PM2.5 observations are from http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/databases/airbase/

Enviro-HIRLAM:

aerosol–cloud interactions

Precipitation amount (12 hours accumulated) of reference HIRLAM (left) and Enviro-HIRLAM with aerosol–cloud interactions (right) vs. surface synoptic observations at WMO station 6670 at Zurich, Switzerland (lat: 47.47; lon: 8.53) during Jul 2010.

Enviro-HIRLAM:

aerosol–cloud interactions

Frequency distribution in [mm/ 3 hour] of stratiform precipitation (left) and convective precipitation (right). Comparison of 1-moment (Reference HIRLAM) and 2-moment (Enviro-HIRLAM with aerosol–cloud interactions) cloud microphysics STRACO (Unden et al., 2002) schemes.

Enviro-HIRLAM for pollen forecasting

• Improvement of Enviro-HIRLAM weather forecasting through

inclusion of cloud-aerosol interactions by Roman Nuterman et al.

• Enviro-HIRLAM modelling of regional and urban meteorology

and chemistry patterns for summer 2009 Paris campaign by Alexander Mahura et al.

• Birch pollen modeling for Denmark: spring 2006 episode

by Alexander Kurganskiy et al.

• Science-education: online integrated modelling of aerosol-

chemistry-meteorology effects using Enviro-HIRLAM by Alexander Mahura et al.

Enviro-HIRLAM Research & Development Posters

Outc tcome

• me from
• m

status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept.

• pt. 2014

( aeroso

• sol-chemis

chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLA LAM) M) Strate rategic gic goal: l: buil ild d a comm mmon n system em for r research rch and d opera rati tion

• ns

s

• An on-line modelling approach is consistent with ECMWF developments for

COPERNICUS

• HARMONIE is defined as the common platform
• It is suggested to formalize the collaboration initiative as a part of the Météo-

France-HIRLAM-ALADIN future coordination activities.

• It is recommended to obey the agreed way of developing cycles in the IFS
• community. There is already a practice at Météo-France to make use of Meso-

NH developments in Arome evolutions

• The activities should be included into the HIRLAM-ALADIN planning

(rolling work plan).

Outc tcome

• me from
• m

status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept.

• pt. 2014

( aeroso

• sol-chemis

chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLA LAM) M) Practica ticalitie lities s

• Aeros
• sol/

l/chemistr chemistry y branch: ch: It is suggested to build an aerosol/chemical branch for HARMONIE.

• ECMWF’ s investment in aerosol data-ass

assimil milatio ation n shoul uld d be accoun unted ted for Development of HARMONIE with online aerosols should make use of the ECMWF C-IFS/ MACC aerosol analysis as initial state for higher resolution LAMs , in order to start forecasts from a realistic spatial distribution. Also aerosol information from lateral boundaries should be considered.

• The compl

plex exity ity of aeros

• sol
• l-chemistry:

chemistry: realize that the chosen model complexity in a given LAM setup should depend on the purpose . Complex gas chemistry may be important for air quality but not for short range NWP  code options needed !

• Result

ults s from process cess studies dies (impact studies) carried out with Meso-NH and Enviro-HIRLAM should be utilized to select the most important processes to account for and the proper balance in complexity for a given purpose

Outc tcome

• me from
• m

status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept.

• pt. 2014

( aeroso

• sol-chemis

chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLA LAM) M)

• Study

dy specif ific ic event nts, s, e.g. dust events , forest fires etc. Wet deposition mechanisms are linked with 4D-clouds.

• Validati

dation

• n and verific

icatio ation tools s : NWP verification tools are already available and are developed for high resolution NWP (e.g. HARP). Use of Aqmeii experience is recommended. Extend verification tool with additional statistical parameters. New chemical parameters should be included. This implies adding extra database with chemical observations. Surfac ace e intera racti ctions

• Build a base-line emission database and/or build on SURFEX developments.
• Establish collaborative link between Enviro-Hirlam, Mocage and SURFEX

communities to build emission preprocessor for HARMONIE.

• Use and further develop urban model (TEB) as part of SURFEX. Incorporate

data from very high resolution land use data-bases.

• Regarding biogenic emissions further discussions are needed with SURFEX

community.

Outcom come from

• m

status us- and plannin nning g meeting ting 30 Sept.

• pt. 2014

( aerosol

• sol-chemi

chemistr try in AROME, ME, HARMON MONIE, IE, HIRLAM) LAM) Chall llenges enges

• Simpli

plified ied chemi mistr stry y is needed ed for aerosol formation in operational models. Many aerosol types exist in nature, but are not properly reflected in the model systems. Which aerosols should be accounted for in a given scheme ?

• Ice nucleatio

ation n appears ars to be a special ial challeng enge : The role of bacteria and

• ther biogenic aerosols which have properties to serve as ice nucleators at

high temperatures need to be better understood

• Data-assimil

assimilatio ation n , new observat rvation

• ns

s ? Data-assimilation of aerosols is a huge challenge, collaboration with ECMWF is desirable. A combination of lidars and satellite information is suggested.

• Numer

erical cal aspects cts : Schemes must not be diffusive, also they are required to be positive definite and mass conserving. Improvements have already been made in meso-NH. Enviro-HIRLAM has experience with development of mass conserving scheme. More research is required to obtain a proper scheme.

Tha hank nk You

• u !

COST ES1004 004 EuMetChem etChem: : http://eumetche ://eumetchem.inf m.info Enviro iro-HIRLAM HIRLAM: http://hirl ://hirlam.org m.org Meso so-NH NH: : http:// ://meso mesonh.aer nh.aero.obs

• .obs-mip.

mip.fr/meso r/mesonh51 nh51

Some relevant Enviro-HIRLAM publications:

• Baklanov, A.: Integrated meteorological and atmospheric chemical transport modeling: perspectives and strategy for HIRLAM/HARMONIE, HIRLAM

Newsletter, 53, 68–78, 2008.

• Baklanov, A., Korsholm, U., Mahura, A., Petersen, C., and Gross, A.: ENVIRO-HIRLAM: on- line coupled modelling of urban meteorology and air

pollution, Adv. Sci. Res., 2, 41–46, doi:10.5194/asr-2-41-2008, 2008a.

• Baklanov, A., Mestayer, P. G., Clappier, A., Zilitinkevich, S., Joffre, S., Mahura, A., and Nielsen, N. W.: Towards improving the simulation of

meteorological fields in urban areas through updated/advanced surface fluxes description, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 523–543, 2008b.

• Baklanov, A., Mahura, A., and Sokhi, R. (Eds.): Integrated Systems of Meso-Meteorological and Chemical Transport Models, Springer, 242 pp.,

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-13980-2, 2011a.

• Baklanov, A. A., Korsholm, U. S., Mahura, A. G., Nuterman, R. B., Sass, B. H., and Zakey, A. S.: Physical and chemical weather forecasting as a joint

problem: two-way interacting integrated modelling, in: American Meteorological Society 91st Annual Meeting, 23–27 January 2011, Seattle, WA, USA, Paper 7.1 AMS2011 paper 7-1 fv.pdf, 2011b.

• Chenevez, J., Baklanov, A., and Sørensen, J. H.: Pollutant transport schemes integrated in a numerical weather prediction model: model description and

verification results, Meteorol. Appl., 11, 265–275, 2004.

• González-Aparicio, I., J. Hidalgo, A. Baklanov, U. Korsholm, R. Nuterman, A. Mahura, O. Santa-Coloma: Urban boundary layer analysis in the complex

coastal terrain of Bilbao using Enviro-HIRLAM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 01/2012; 110(4), 2012.

• Gross, A. and Baklanov, A.: Modelling the influence of dimethyl sulphid on the aerosol production in the marine boundary layer, Int. J. Environ. Pollut.,

22, 51–71, 2004.

• Korsholm, U. S.: Integrated modeling of aerosol indirect effects – development and application of a chemical weather model, PhD thesis University of

Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute and Danish Meteorological Institute, available at: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/ sr09-01.pdf, 2009.

• Korsholm, U. S., Baklanov, A., Gross, A., Mahura, A., Hansen Sass, B., and Kaas, E.: Online coupled chemical weather forecasting based on HIRLAM –
• verview and prospective of Enviro-HIRLAM, HIRLAM Newsletter, 54, 151–168, 2008.
• Korsholm, U. S., Baklanov, A., Gross, A., and Sørensen, J. H.: On the importance of the meteorological coupling interval in dispersion modeling during

ETEX-1, Atmos. Environ., 43, 4805–4810, 2009.

• Kaas, E.: A simple and efficient locally mass conserving semi-Lagrangian transport scheme, Tellus A, 60A, 305–320, 2008.
• Mahura A., C. Petersen, A. Baklanov, B. Amstrup, U. S. Korsholm, K. Sattler, "Verification of Longterm DMI-HIRLAM NWP Model Runs Using

Urbanisation and Builing Effect Parameterization Modules". HIRLAM Newsletter, vol. no.53, no. 11pp, 2008.

• Nuterman, R., Korsholm, U., Zakey, A., Nielsen, K. P., Sørensen, B., Mahura, A., Rasmussen, A., Mazeikis, A., Gonzalez-Aparicio, I., Morozova, E.,

Sass, B. H., Kaas, E., and Baklanov, A.: New developments in Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated modeling system, Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 15, EGU2013-12520-1, 2013.

• Sørensen, B.: New mass conserving multi-tracer efficient transport schemes focusing on semi- Lagrangian and Lagrangian methods for online integration

with chemistry, PhD Thesis, University of Copenhagen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2012.

• Sørensen, B., Kaas, E., Korsholm, U.S.: A mass conserving and multi-tracer efficient transport scheme in the online integrated Enviro-HIRLAM model.
• Geosci. Model Dev., 6,1029-1042, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1029-2013, 2013.

Improved birch pollen model evaluation for 2012 for Copenhagen and Viborg

Enviro-HIRLAM Downscaling to Urban Area

Reclassification in urban districts:

/RD – residential district; HBD – high building district; ICD – industrial commercial district/. Paris Metropolitan Area (France) RD ICD

Mahura et al., 2015

Selected Metropolitan Area

Enviro-HIRLAM Downscaling to Urban Area

(Paris Metropolitan Area)

Meteorology --- air temperature at 2 m (deg C) Chemistry --- Ozone concentration (ppb)

15 km 5 km 2.5 km 15 km 5 km 2.5 km (+BEP) (+BEP)

BEP – Building Effect Parameterization module Mahura et al., 2015