Information provided by JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY Center for - - PDF document

Information provided by

JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY

Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 4

1

Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview

• CEAZ Update (#2-#75)

– Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI

• State of Alabama Update (#76-#128)

– Richard Cobb - JSU SOBI

• Regional & National Update (To and Beyond)

– Lesley McClure – Vice President and Regional Executive with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Birmingham Branch

CEAZ Members: Calhoun

2

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 5

CEAZ Members: Clay

3

CEAZ Members: Cleburne

4

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 6

5

CEAZ Members:

• St. Clair

CEAZ Members: Talladega

6

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 7

Economic Outlook Surveys for United States and Alabama

7

United States Alabama

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2013 – July 2017 (Prelim)

Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research

70 80 90 100 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Last 12 Months +3.44%

8

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 8

• State Survey – 3rd Quarter 2017
• Approximately 172 business executives
• Operated by University of Alabama Center for

Business and Economic Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

9

0.6% 6.4% 33.3% 55.0% 4.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Much Worse Worse Remain Same Better Much Better % of Respondents

Overall Economic Outlook for AL Q2 17 vs to Q3 17

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 10

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 9

57.6 54.8 51.2 53.0 55.1 52.4 52.6 62.7 65.2 61.6 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Index Value

Overall Economic Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 11

Q3 17 Index Down 3.6 pts

Hiring Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17

1.8% 6.4% 49.1% 39.8% 2.9% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 12

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 10

56.8 52.8 51.6 53.8 54.3 50.2 51.9 57.6 60.7 58.9 45 50 55 60 65 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Index Value

Hiring Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 13

Q3 17 Index Down 1.8 pts

Sales Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17

2.3% 8.8% 30.4% 53.2% 5.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 14

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 11

62.3 58.4 53.1 55.2 60.1 54.9 55.9 63.4 67.2 62.6 45 50 55 60 65 70 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Index Value

Sales Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 15

Q3 17 Index Down 4.6 pts

1.2% 5.8% 49.7% 39.2% 4.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

Capital Expenditures Outlook AL Q2 17 to Q3 17

16

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 12

55.4 52.3 51.5 53.1 54.2 53.4 52.0 58.5 61.9 59.8 45 50 55 60 65 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Index Value

Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 17

Q3 17 Index Down 2.1 pts

Capital Expenditures Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone (CEAZ): Overview

• Population Trends

(#19-#24)

• Income (#25-33)
• Sales Tax Revenues

(#34)

• Labor Force Statistics

(#35-#74)

18

• Dr. Mark Hearn, JSU School of Business and Industry

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 13

Population Trends Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands

112.8 113.4 114.1 118.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 115.9 115.6 114.6 110 112 114 116 118 120 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 19

Population Trends Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands

13.8 13.8 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 14

Population Trends Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands

14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 21

Population Trends St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands

79.3 81.2 83.0 85.6 82.4 85.5 86.3 86.7 87.1 88.0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 22

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 15

Population Trends Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands

80.2 80.5 80.2 82.0 81.8 81.8 81.1 81.3 80.9 80.1 79 80 81 82 83 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 23

Population Trends CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands

301 304 306 315 311 313 313 313 312 311 290 300 310 320 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 24

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 16

Per Capital Personal Income Calhoun County 2006-2015 in 1,000s

25 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$28.3 $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Per Capital Personal Income Clay County 2006-2015 in 1,000s

26 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$27.9 $28.1 $28.2 $28.3 $28.9 $28.4 $29.5 $30.5 $31.7 $33.0 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 17

Per Capital Personal Income Cleburne County 2006-2015 in 1,000s

27 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$24.0 $24.7 $26.8 $26.4 $27.3 $27.9 $29.1 $29.9 $30.7 $31.2 $23 $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Per Capital Personal Income

• St. Clair County 2006-2015 in 1,000s

28 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$28.3 $29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32.4 $33.4 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 18

Per Capital Personal Income Talladega County 2006-2015 in 1,000s

29 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$25.9 $26.4 $26.6 $26.6 $27.7 $28.7 $29.2 $29.6 $30.8 $31.8 $23 $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 2006-2015 in 1,000s

30 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$26.9 $27.7 $28.6 $28.2 $28.8 $29.4 $30.3 $30.7 $31.8 $32.8 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 In 1,000

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 19

Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ as % of AL 2006-2015

31 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

85.8% 85.1% 85.5% 86.2% 85.5% 84.7% 85.4% 85.8% 86.2% 86.2% 84.0% 84.5% 85.0% 85.5% 86.0% 86.5% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Change in Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 05-06 -14-15

32 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4.0% 5.8% 2.5%

• 2.0%

1.9% 2.5% 0.9%

• 1.2%

3.5% 3.0%

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 20

Ave Weekly Wages 2nd Qtr 2016 U.S. Avg - $989 AL Avg - $835

$649 – or lower $650 - $749 $750 - $849 $850 or higher

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 33

$671 $714 $813 $619

$733

$848

State Sales Tax Collections CEAZ FY 08-09 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

$43.07 $42.63 $47.35 $50.32 $52.32 $57.87 $58.69 $58.30 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 In $ Millions

34

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 21

Labor Force Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands

54.9 54.6 53.9 51.6 51.3 49.6 48.3 47.3 46.0 45.8 40 44 48 52 56 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 35

Labor Force Calhoun County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

46.1 45.9 45.8 45.6 45.9 45.7 45.7 45.6 45.8 45.8 45.7 45.6 45.8 45.2 45.6 46.0 46.4

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 36

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 22

Employment Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands

52.7 51.5 47.9 45.7 46.0 45.3 44.0 43.5 42.8 42.7 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 37

Employment Calhoun County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

42.8 42.8 42.7 42.5 42.7 42.8 42.6 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.4 43.4 43.1 41.5 42.0 42.5 43.0 43.5 44.0

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 38

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 23

39

Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

3.9% 5.7% 11.1% 11.4% 10.3% 8.9% 8.8% 8.0% 7.0% 6.7% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Calhoun Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 40

Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

7.1% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

Calhoun Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 24

Labor Force Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands

6.1 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 41

Labor Force Clay County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 42

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 25

Employment Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands

5.8 5.3 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 43

Employment Clay County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 44

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 26

45

Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

5.5% 7.9% 16.7% 14.5% 11.8% 9.4% 8.4% 7.2% 6.1% 6.2% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Clay Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 46

Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

7.1% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.7% 7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

Clay Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 27

Labor Force Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands

6.5 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 47

Labor Force Cleburne County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 48

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 28

Employment Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands

6.2 6.2 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 49

Employment Cleburne County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 50

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 29

51

Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

3.7% 5.1% 10.2% 10.0% 9.7% 8.2% 7.7% 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Cleburne Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 52

Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% 6.5% 5.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.1% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 5.1% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

Cleburne Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 30

Labor Force St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands

36.0 36.5 36.8 38.3 38.5 38.5 38.7 38.5 38.4 38.6 35 36 37 38 39 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 53

Labor Force St. Clair County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

38.7 38.7 38.6 38.6 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.7 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.7 39.0 38.4 38.6 38.8 39.0

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 54

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 31

Employment St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands

34.8 34.7 32.8 34.4 35.1 35.9 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.5 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 55

Employment St. Clair County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

36.5 36.7 36.4 36.4 36.7 36.9 36.8 36.3 36.7 36.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 56

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 32

57

Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

3.4% 5.0% 10.9% 10.1% 8.8% 6.9% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

• St. Clair

Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 58

Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 4.9% 4.0% 3.8% 5.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

• St. Clair

Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 33

Labor Force Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands

38.9 38.3 37.8 35.1 35.3 35.0 35.7 35.4 35.2 34.8 32 34 36 38 40 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 59

Labor Force Talladega County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

35.0 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.7 34.5 34.8 34.9 34.7 34.5 34.6 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.8 35.0

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 60

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 34

Employment Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands

36.9 35.5 32.3 30.4 31.2 31.7 32.6 32.7 32.9 32.4 30 32 34 36 38 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 61

Employment Talladega County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

32.4 32.3 32.3 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.2 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.0 32.8 32.6 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 62

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 35

63

Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

5.2% 7.2% 14.4% 13.5% 11.6% 9.4% 8.6% 7.8% 6.6% 6.8% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Talladega Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 64

Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

7.0% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% 8.0% 7.1% 6.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8%6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

Talladega Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 38

Labor Force CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands

142.4 141.6 140.6 136.9 136.6 134.4 133.9 132.6 130.9 130.6 128 132 136 140 144 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 65

Labor Force CEAZ June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

131.1 130.9 130.5 130.7 131.5 130.7 130.7 130.1 131.1 131.3 130.8 130.3 131.0 130.0 130.5 131.0 131.5 132.0

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 66

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 39

Employment CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands

136.4 133.1 123.6 120.9 122.6 123.1 123.3 123.0 122.6 122.4 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 67

Employment CEAZ June 16 – June 17 in Thousands

122 123 122 122 123 123 122 121 123 124 125 125 124 118 120 122 124 126

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

In 1,000

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 68

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 40

69

Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama 2007 – 2016

5.2% 7.2% 14.4% 13.5% 11.6% 9.4% 8.6% 7.8% 6.6% 6.8% 4.0% 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CEAZ Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics 70

Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama June 2016 – June 2017

6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.0% 6.3% 7.1% 6.4% 5.6% 4.7% 4.5% 5.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17

CEAZ Alabama

Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 41

Alabama Unemployment Rates

June 2017

Preliminary State Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

State Ave – 5.2%

Unemployment Rate

6.5% and Below 6.6% - 7.9% 8.0% and Above

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 71

4.6% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1%

5.3%

5.7%

72

Manufacturing Sector Employment CEAZ 2006-2016 in Thousands

23.9 22.4 21.4 18.2 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.0 21.1 15 18 20 23 25 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 42

73

Service Sector Employment CEAZ 2004-2014 in Thousands

50.7 53.6 52.5 49.4 49.4 50.7 51.5 51.6 51.4 51.9 52.2 45 48 50 53 55 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 74

Federal Sector Employment CEAZ 2004-2016 in Thousands

5.17 5.65 6.00 6.26 6.18 6.22 6.23 5.88 5.29 4.84 4.58 4.38 4.33 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 43

CEAZ: Market Summary

• Population - Flat
• Incomes – Up
• Tax Revenues – Flat
• Labor Market

– Labor Force – Down – Employment – Up – Unemployment – Trending Down

• Economy in Region has recovered

– Not Back to Historic Highs of 07 – Up from previous year – Reductions in Federal Employment significant (Especially for Calhoun) – State business leaders optimistic – Other areas of state show more significant recovery

75

State of Alabama Update CEAZ 2017 Economic Drivers Population Dynamics

Employment/Income/GDP Construction and Housing Autos/Energy Opportunity and Innovation

76

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 44

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

4.454.47 4.49 4.50 4.53 4.57 4.63 4.67 4.72 4.76 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.84 4.85 4.86

4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

77

Ala 7.5 %

Ala 1.5 %

Millions

U.S. Growth 4.7%

U.S. Growth 9.7%

Workforce Dynamics Population for Alabama 2000-2016 in Millions Regional Population Percent Change (2000-2010)

9.7 7.5 9.1 17.618.3 1.4 4.3 18.5 15.3 11.5 20.6 4 8 12 16 20 24 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Percent Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 78

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 45

Regional Population Percent Change (2010- July 2016)

4.7 1.5 2.5 9.6 6.4 3.3 0.7 6.4 7.3 4.8 10.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Percent Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 79

0.7 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 2.8 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Percent Change

* Top 10 States for Business

Chief Exec Magazine

AL 2017 – 19th AL 2016 – 20th

Regional Population Percent Change (July 2015 - July 2016)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Chief Executive Magazine 80

*

* * * * *

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 46

4.4 4.9 3.4 4.3 4.9 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.8

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Unemployment Rate Percent

Regional Unemployment Rate May 2017

81

States with Neg (-) Pop’n Growth

NY, MS, WY, CT, VT, IL, PA, WV (%) 4.4, 4.9, 4.1, 4.9, 3.1, 4.6, 5.0, 4.5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed 1982 – June 2017

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Number of Weeks

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

39.6 24.7

82

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 47

• U. S. Census Bureau

Regions and Divisions

83 Source: U. S. Census Bureau 84

• U. S. Population Changes

(July 2015 - July 2016)

State MSAs 1. New York 20,153,634

• 393. Carson City NV 54,742

Texas (4) + Florida (3) MSAs = 30% of all growth The 20 fastest growing MSAs = 56% of all growth Of the 20 fastest Of the 15 fastest growing MSAs growing large cities S Region 11 S Region 11 ( 6 in TX) W Region 8 W Region 4 NE Region 1 MW Region 1

Source: U. S. Census Bureau

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 48

• U. S. Demographic Trends

Population Change by Region Percent

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

2000-2010 2010-2016

Population Change

U.S. NE MW S W

Source: U. S. Census Bureau

3.9 6.5 3.2 6.8 9.7 1.6 14.5 1.5

85

13.8 4.7

84.7 % of U.S. 86.8% of U.S.

• U. S. Demographic Trends

Population Change by Region Percent

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50

2014-2015 2015-2016

Population Change

U.S. NE MW S W

Source: U. S. Census Bureau

0.70

Percent

0.20 1.09 0.21 1.06 0.79 0.05 1.16 0.15

86

1.15

94.3 % of U. S. 89.7 % of U. S.

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 49

Employment Alabama 1990 – May 2017

3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0

1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Civilian Labor Force (million) Employed(million) Unemployment Rate (%)

Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

Millions Percent

87 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Alabama Employment by Sector 1990 – May 2017

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Employment in 1,000s

Manufacturing Government Trade/Trans/Util Education/Health Professional/Business Fin,Ins,Real est

Seasonally Adjusted

88 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 50

Alabama Employment–Population Ratio 1981 – May 2017

48 52 56 60 64 68

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

% of Population Employed

Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

54.5% 64.4%

= Employed__ _________ Civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 +

89

55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69

1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 Participation Rate (Percent)

64.4%

63.3

57.3%

Alabama Labor Participation Rate 1946 – June 2017

Participation Rate = 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group Seasonally Adjusted

90 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 51

U.S. Employment 1990 – May 2017

3 6 9 12 15 18

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Labor Force (million) Employed(million) U6 - Unemployed (Percent) Unemployed Rate (percent)

Percen

Millions Percent

91 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Manufacturing and Retail Trade Jobs & Earnings 1980 – June 2017

100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 5 8 11 14 17 20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) Retail Jobs (Millions) Avg Weekly Earnings Manuf Avg Weekly Earnings Retail Trade

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Table 8B. Weekly earnings production and nonsupervisory private nonfarm employees

Millions

• Avg. $ Weekly

Seasonally Adjusted

92

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 52

• U. S. Goods Producing and Service

Jobs Workforce and Earnings 1980 – June 2017

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

5 10 15 20 25

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Goods Prod Employees (millions) Leisure & Hospitality Jobs (millions) Ed & Health Ser Jobs (millions) Avg Wk Earn Goods Prod Avg Wk Earn Leisure & Hosp Avg Wk Earn Ed & Health

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Millions

• Avg. $ Weekly

Seasonally Adjusted

93

U.S. Employment–Population Ratio 1975 - June 2017

54 56 58 60 62 64 66

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Percent of Population Employed

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

60.1% 64.4%

# Employed / Civilian noninstitutionalized population 16+

94

Seasonally Adjusted

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 53

55 60 65 70

1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Participation Rate (Percent)

(1997- 67.1%)

63.3 62.8%

U.S. Labor Participation Rate 1946 – June 2017

Participation Rate= 16(+) working or Looking for work Total population of the same age group Seasonally Adjusted

95

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• U. S. Worker Participation Rate

by Age Group (1994 – 2024)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1994 2004 2014 2024

Participation Rate

16-24 25-54 55-64 65+

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Monthly Labor Review, Dec. 2015

Percent

12.4 21.7

56.8 66.3 66.4

49.7

83.4

81.2

96

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 54

Per Capita Income U.S. vs. Alabama 1990 - 2016

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. Alabama

97 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

CAGR (2006-2016) 3.5 % 2.8 % $49571

$39231 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

U.S. and Alabama GDP Per Capita (1997-2016)

30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Alabama GDP $Billions U.S. Per-Capita GDP $1000 Ala Per-Capita GDP $1000

98 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

GDP ($Billions) GDP/Capita ($1000) Chained 2009 dollars

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 55

Alabama – Components of GDP 1997 - 2016

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

$Billions

Chained 2009 dollars

Government Manufacturing Prof/Bus Services Fin, Ins, Real Estate Retail Trade

99

Durable Goods

Ed/Health

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. And Alabama Top 5 Industries as Percent of GDP 2016

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Alabama United States

Percent of GDP

Government Fin, Ins, Real Est Durable Goods Prof/Bus Ed/Health

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 100

17 16 11 10 8 12 21 6 13 9

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 56

U.S. National Defense Budget 1995-2022 in Billions

Source: U.S. OMB Historical table (Budget authority by Function) for FY2015 Table 3.1-Outlays, DOD Budget Report/FY2016, Bloomberg Government

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

200 300 400 500 600 700 800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

$Billions Percent

National Defense Budget $Billions

Defense Budget percent of GDP 705 672

101

589

Estimate

Defense Spending Ranking of Top 10 States $ Billions - FY 2015

53.0 49.3 37.9 20.5 17.6 12.6 12.6 12.2 12.2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 VA CA TX MD FL PA WA GA AL MA

Defense Spending

12.7

Source: U.S. BEA, U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures

$Billions

102

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 57

U.S. Defense Spending – State Rankings Percent of GDP 2009 vs. 2015

13.9% 13.5% 10.7% 8.6% 7.0% 6.0% 7.9%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

VA HI AK AL MD MS KT

Percent of GDP

2009 2015

9.9% Source: U.S. Dept. of Defense, Bloomberg Government, National Conference of State Legislatures 5.9% 11.2% 5.7% 4.7% 103 9.8% 4.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0.00 0.30 0.60 0.90 1.20 1.50 1.80 2.10 2.40 2.70 3.00 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

2,155,300 1,682,000 389,000 444,700 745,500 1,206,600

Peak (2005)

Housing U.S. Building Permits Privately-Owned Units 2003 - 2016

Total Units Single Unit Multi 5+ Units

Million

104

Year to Date May 31, 2017 502,100 336,400 165,600

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 58

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 24.0 27.0 30.0 33.0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 (000)

32,034 24,654 7547 15001 3317 11692

Total 5695

Single Unit 5268

May 2017 Year-to-Date

Multi 5+ Units 427

105

Alabama Building Permits Privately- Owned Housing Units 2003 – 2016 Percent of U.S. Total Housing Units Authorized by States: 2016

13.8 9.6 8.5 5.1 4.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 3 6 9 12 15 18 TX FL CA NC GA WA CO AZ NY SC

Percent of Total

3.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Table 2u., Privately owned housing units 106

Top 10 = 57.3 % of U. S. Total

* * * * *

* Chief Exec. Top 10

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 59

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Employment in Millions

U.S. Construction Employment

1982 – June 2017

6.89 7.69 5.44

Seasonally Adjusted

107 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Alabama Construction Employment 1990 – May 2017

60 80 100 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Employment -Thousands

112.8 87.3

108 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 60

Median Asking Price and/or Asking Rent for Vacant Housing Units 2001 – 2016

450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Asking Price ($000) Asking Rent ($)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Nominal Dollars

109

Housing Statistics for Alabama May 2016 vs. May 2017

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE)

May 2016 May 2017

% Change Total Homes Sold

5279 5839

10.6%

• Avg. Selling Price

$164,995 $175,766

6.5%

Days on Market

138 135

• 2.2%

Units Listed

30,515 26,851

• 12.0%

110

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 61

State and National Economic Drivers

Automotive Manufacturing

Market and Driving Trends Energy Issue

111 Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama

Vehicle Assembly Plants in Southeastern United States

112

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 62

Source: 2007 EDPA Automotive Database

Automotive Industry Clusters in Alabama

Legend

Concentration of Automotive Suppliers

Suppliers by Zip Code

There are more than 383 Automotive Companies and Suppliers in Alabama.

113 Source: U. S. BEA, BLS

5 10 15 20 25

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Employment in 1000s

Alabama Motor Vehicle and Parts Employment 1990 – 2016

Employment – Vehicle Manuf (000) Employment – Parts Manuf (000)

MB Honda Hyundai IH Toyota

26.1 12.9

114

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 63

Alabama Motor Vehicle Production 2004 -2016

115 Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA), Alabama Dept. of Commerce

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

In Thousands 1,048,000

Alabama 2016 Export $9.0 Billion Vehicles and Parts

Source: U.S. BLS, BEA,

3 6 9 12 15

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing Employment 1990 – 2016

In 100s of Thousands 944,100 1,313,000 660,000

116

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 64

Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA)

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1986 1993 2000 2007 2014

U.S. Motor Vehicle Car & Lt. Commercial Vehicle Production 1986 – 2016 Millions

Total for All Auto Manufacturers (millions)

Total Foreign-Affiliated Mfg. (millions)

12.6 12.2 5.1 2.51 Millions

117

• 10.0
• 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 Percent Change in GDP Thousands of Units/Quarter

Source: BEA

GDP %Change/Qtr

Truck Sales (000)/Qtr

• U. S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Class 4-8)

1967 – Qt1-2017 Thousands of Units/Quarter

Sales GDP

Seasonally Adj

118

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 65

U.S. Total Vehicle-Miles Traveled vs. Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 1970-2016

8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Source: U.S. DOT, FHWA

Total Traveled (Trillions) Per Capita VMT

119

Per Capita VMT = Total Miles Traveled Civilian Population age 16+

13,225

12,431

Trillions

Motor Vehicle Renewable Fuel Blending Requirements 2002-2016-2022

Source: U.S. EIA

10 20 30 40 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Renewable Fuel Billions of Gallons Required Ethanol Percent Blended

Required By EISA 2007 FRG 1990 36 Billion gal

120

Blend Wall 10%

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 66

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Billions of Gallons

U.S. Gasoline Current and Projected Use 1977 – 2016 – 2040

CAFÉ

1985 – 27.5 mpg 2016 – 35.5 mpg 2025 – 54.5 mpg 142.3 103

121 Source: U.S. EIA

ISSUES and CHALLENGES

National and State Economic Drivers

Innovation & Opportunity

122

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 67

Port of Mobile

Source: Alabama State Port Authority, Alabama Seaport Sp13 123

Economic Drivers

124

Source: Alabama State Port Authority

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 68

Alabama Aerospace

Delta Atlas V

126

Alabama Aerospace

Airbus A320

125

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 69

Alabama Aerospace Blue Origin (BE-4) Engine

127

State of Alabama Summary

• Population Growth Slowing
• Unemployment Rate

Regionally High

• State GDP and Defense

Spending Correlation

• Auto Base Growing
• Housing Stable
• Highway Fuel Tax Uncertainty
• Workforce Participation?
• Growth Opportunities

Innovation and Dynamic Change

128

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 70

CEAZ: Summary

• Labor Force

– Down from historic highs – Up recently

• Employment

– Down from historic highs – Up recently

• Unemployment

– Down from recent highs – Trending lower

• Economy in Region has

recovered to some extent

– State and local business leaders remain cautious – Other areas of state have seen more significant recovery

129

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