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Inequality and Human Capital: a Global View P.A. Chiappori Columbia University EIB, May 2018 Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 1 / 10 Inequality: the other 99% Lots of works have recently

  1. Unemployment rate (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Median usual weekly earnings ($) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

  3. Fact 3: the crucial role of HC in the evolution of inequality Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 9 / 10

  4. Figure 4. Median Earnings of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Ages 25–34 with at Least a Bachelor’s Degree Relative to High School Graduates, 1972–2012, Selected Years 1.82 Median earnings relative to high 1.71 1.70 1.66 1.59 1.57 1.42 1.41 school graduates 1.25 1.22 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 Men Women Gender and year Sources : NCES 2004, table 14-1; US Census Bureau (1995–2010, 2011b–2012, and 2013d); Baum 2014 .

  6. Fact 4: the ‘demand for skills’ story (Autor 2014) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 10 / 11

  9. Fact 5: links between inequality, HC and social mobility Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 11 / 11

  12. Part 1 Inequality and Human Capital over five decades Part 2 The determinants of Human Capital investment

  13. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  14. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  15. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  16. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  17. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade etc. Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  18. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade etc. What about supply ? Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  19. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade etc. What about supply ? Demand for higher education: gender-specific patterns Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  20. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade etc. What about supply ? Demand for higher education: gender-specific patterns In the US ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  21. Human Capital is endogenous Back to the supply/demand story: Increase in demand for HC, due to various factors: technical progress international trade etc. What about supply ? Demand for higher education: gender-specific patterns In the US ... ... and worldwide Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 2 / 10

  22. Demand for college education: worldwide Remarkable increase in female education, labor supply, incomes worldwide during the last decades. Source: Becker-Hubbard-Murphy 2009 Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 3 / 10

  23. Demand for college education: the US The ‘Gender Puzzle’ → how can we explain these striking differences? Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 4 / 10

  24. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  25. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  26. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  27. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  28. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  29. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  30. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  31. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... ... and their their allocation between spouses Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  32. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... ... and their their allocation between spouses Marriage-market benefits (the ‘marital college premium’): Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  33. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... ... and their their allocation between spouses Marriage-market benefits (the ‘marital college premium’): have been largely neglected Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  34. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... ... and their their allocation between spouses Marriage-market benefits (the ‘marital college premium’): have been largely neglected their evolution markedly differs across genders Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  35. Why do individuals invest in HC? Standard answer: investment in HC generates benefits received on the labor market (‘college premium’) extensively studied, and clearly important problem: no significant difference between men and women (if anything favors men) → cannot explain asymmetry between gender More recent answer (CIW AER 2009): additional benefits received on the marriage market → more education changes: marriage probability spouse’s (expected) education the economic gains generated by marriage ... ... and their their allocation between spouses Marriage-market benefits (the ‘marital college premium’): have been largely neglected their evolution markedly differs across genders may influence investment behavior Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 5 / 10

  36. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  37. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  38. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  39. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  40. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  41. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  42. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Model of household formation: who marries whom and why? 2 Basic insights: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  43. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Model of household formation: who marries whom and why? 2 Basic insights: The gains are couple-specific Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  44. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Model of household formation: who marries whom and why? 2 Basic insights: The gains are couple-specific Therefore, their nature impacts matching (‘Who marries whom?’) ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  45. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Model of household formation: who marries whom and why? 2 Basic insights: The gains are couple-specific Therefore, their nature impacts matching (‘Who marries whom?’) ... ... but also how the surplus is allocated ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  46. Economic Models of the Household Two components Model of househod behavior: economic gains to marriage 1 Marriage generates a ‘gain’ (or a ‘surplus’) that can be shared between spouses Two main sources of this surplus, both linked to ‘domestic production’ (Becker): Specialization (chores, etc.) Fertility → investment in children’s Human Capital ... and a few others (risk sharing, savings, etc.) - plus non economic aspects! Model of household formation: who marries whom and why? 2 Basic insights: The gains are couple-specific Therefore, their nature impacts matching (‘Who marries whom?’) ... ... but also how the surplus is allocated ... ... which in turn influences investment in HC Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 6 / 10

  47. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  48. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  49. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  50. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  51. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  52. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Parents’ own HC is a crucial input Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  53. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Parents’ own HC is a crucial input Parental inputs are complement, not substitute Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  54. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Parents’ own HC is a crucial input Parental inputs are complement, not substitute Significant impact on motivations for marriage: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  55. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Parents’ own HC is a crucial input Parental inputs are complement, not substitute Significant impact on motivations for marriage: Additional incentives for assortative matching (especially at the top) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  56. A possible story (CSW 2016) One basic trend: the increasing importance of investment in children’s education, particularly at the top of the human capital distribution. As a result, the structure of household production has drastically changed ‘Traditional’ patterns (chores and specialization) less important (‘engines of liberation’, Greenwood et al 2005) Human capital production more and more crucial, particularly at the top of the distribution But drastically different technologies: for HC production Parents’ own HC is a crucial input Parental inputs are complement, not substitute Significant impact on motivations for marriage: Additional incentives for assortative matching (especially at the top) ... which impacts the Marital College Premium in gender-specific ways. Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 7 / 10

  57. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  58. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  59. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  60. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  61. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  62. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  63. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Increased tendency towards assortative matching... Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  64. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Increased tendency towards assortative matching... ... especially at the top of the distribution Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  65. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Increased tendency towards assortative matching... ... especially at the top of the distribution Regarding incentives to invest: Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  66. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Increased tendency towards assortative matching... ... especially at the top of the distribution Regarding incentives to invest: The ‘marital college premium’ increases for women, but may decrease for men Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  67. Predictions of the model (CSW, AER 2016) Regarding time use: Total time spent on chores decreases ... ... particularly for women (may → increase for men) Time spent on children increases for both parents ... ... but especially for the father Regarding matching patterns: Increased tendency towards assortative matching... ... especially at the top of the distribution Regarding incentives to invest: The ‘marital college premium’ increases for women, but may decrease for men → which may explain the observed asymmetries between genders! Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 8 / 10

  68. Results 1. Time use 2. Matching patterns 3. Marital college premium Chiappori (Columbia University) Models of the Household Leuven, April 2017 26 / 28

  69. USA Canada UK Year of survey 1975 2003 1971 1998 1975 2000 Domestic chores 1 . 18 1 . 52 1 . 56 1 . 63 0 . 97 1 . 70 Married men, child 5-17 Married women, child 5-17 3 . 63 2 . 83 4 . 55 3 . 29 4 . 01 3 . 37 1 . 10 1 . 38 1 . 83 1 . 66 0 . 90 1 . 42 Married men, child < 5 3 . 67 2 . 64 4 . 79 3 . 03 4 . 13 3 . 03 Married women, child < 5 Child care 0 . 20 0 . 57 0 . 14 0 . 41 0 . 06 0 . 26 Married men, child 5-17 0 . 65 1 . 13 0 . 64 0 . 77 0 . 30 0 . 58 Married women, child 5-17 Married men, child < 5 0 . 40 1 . 24 1 . 21 1 . 47 0 . 28 1 . 04 1 . 63 2 . 67 2 . 16 2 . 97 1 . 28 2 . 57 Married women, child < 5 Table 1: Time use ( Source: Browning, Chiappori and Weiss 2015)

  70. Panel A. Mothers Panel B. Fathers 80 High school or less Some college College or more All 60 Minutes 40 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figure 14. Average Minutes Spent Daily in Developmental Child Care, United States ce: Altintas ( 2016 ) .

  71. Matching patterns Basic issue: ‘Increase in assortativeness’ (educated people are more likely to marry their own now than in the past) Not easy to establish Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 9 / 10

  72. Matching patterns Basic issue: ‘Increase in assortativeness’ (educated people are more likely to marry their own now than in the past) Not easy to establish dramatic changes in the distribution of education by gender Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 9 / 10

  73. Matching patterns Basic issue: ‘Increase in assortativeness’ (educated people are more likely to marry their own now than in the past) Not easy to establish dramatic changes in the distribution of education by gender this phenomenon, by itself, will imply large changes in matching patterns Chiappori (Columbia University) Inequality and Human Capital EIB, May 2018 9 / 10

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