Indonesia NDC roadmap on AFOLU and Energy sector Rizaldi Boer and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Indonesia NDC roadmap on AFOLU and Energy sector Rizaldi Boer and Retno Gumilang Dewi Email: rizaldiboer@gmail.com; ccrom_rizaldi@apps.ipb.ac.id Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific IPB University; Centre
Rizaldi Boer and Retno Gumilang Dewi
Email: rizaldiboer@gmail.com; ccrom_rizaldi@apps.ipb.ac.id Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific IPB University; Centre on Research for Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology
2
Insufficient 2°C compatible 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible Highly insufficient Critically insufficient NDC
‐0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 N e t E m issio n (G t C O 2 e )
NDC BaU NDC CM1 NDC CM2 DD
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 ‐100
Net Emission (Mt CO2e)
‐ 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 BAU BAU CM1 CM2 2010 2030 Emission (Mton CO2e) Forestry Agriculture IPPU Waste Energy
Excluding Non‐AFOLU
38% 1.31% 0.34% 1.10% 59%
Emission Reduction Target by 2030
Energy Waste IPPU Agriculture LUCF
Source: MoEF, 2018
The increase of emission in 2014 and 2015 mainly due to the increase of emission from FOLU due to peat fire In the period of 2010‐2016, by excluding FOLU, the cumulative ER reached 555 Mt CO2e (equivalent to reduction of about 9.4% from BAU), while by including FOLU, it decreased to 269 Mt CO2e (equivalent to reduction of about 2.4% from BAU)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual BAU Actual 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Emission (Mton CO2e) FOLU Agriculture Waste IPPU Energy
BAU=15.53 Mha CM1=7.26 Mha CM1=4.15 Mha
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Total Deforestasi 2013-2030 (000 ha)
CM1=3,30 Mha (2013‐2017) Deforestation Quota
Natural Forest in Concession areas 2017 HTI = 2.92 Mha HGU = 1.44 Mha PIAPS = 6.14 Mha
Total = 10.50 Mha Protection = 5.85 Mha (PP46/2016)
2 Main Strategies Based on MOEF (2019) Controlling the conversion of natural forest in concession areas with incentive system (PERMEN LHK 70/2017) Permanent moratorium for the issuance of new permit in primary forest and peatland outside the concession: INPRES 5/2019 Managing Illegal Driver
Forestry: PERMEN LHK 83/2016 and TORA
Jenis Konsesi Optimum Scenario Progressive Scenario % ha % Ha Social Forestry 89.4 5,490,434 89.4 5,490,434 HTI 61.0 1,779,351 80.5 2,349,097 Agriculture Plantation 62.1 896,232 81.0 1,169,772 Total Conservation 8,166,017 9,009,303 Total Convertible in concession 2,334,526 1,491,240 Cap outside concession (Unconditional target) 1.601,474 2,333,760 Deep Decarbonization (Cap
(Conditional Target) ‐1,489,526 ‐646,240
Forest in concession: 10.5 Mha‐Timber Plantation = 2.92 Mha; Agriculture Plantation = 1.44 Mha; Social Forestry = 6.14 Mha; Side aside for protection based on Ecosystem Services 5.85 Mha
0 1:<10 2: 10‐20 3: 20‐30 4: 30‐50 5: 50‐80 6: >80 1: High 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3: Medium 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5: Low 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Historical Deforestati Current Percent Forest Cover
Extremely High Very high High Quite high Medium Quite Low Low Very low Extremely Low No Forest
2,580 ‐ 49,818 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 71,964 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 14,275 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 91,216 ‐ 131,178 ‐ ‐ 75,019 6,627 35,934 14,269 ‐ 41,927 ‐ 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 ‐ 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 U N IT IV U N IT IX U N IT XXXII U N IT XXXIII U N IT I U N IT II U N IT III U N IT V U N IT VI U N IT VII U N IT VIII U N IT X U N IT XI U N IT XII U N IT XIII U N IT XIV U N IT XIX U N IT XV U N IT XVI U N IT XVII U N IT XVIII U N IT XX U N IT XXI U n it XXII, U nit XX VI U N IT XXIII U N IT XXIV U N IT XXIX U N IT XXV U N IT XXVII U N IT XXVIII U N IT XXX U N IT XXXI KPHL KPHP Tinggi Rendah
Forested land in FMU exposed to high risk of deforestation Type A3, B3 Type A1, A2, B1, B2 Type C4
Minister Regulation No. 6/2010: Policies that support the development of units mandated to improve management of forests in protection and production forests Instituional typology Use as guide for prioritizing the area for the implementation of Social Forestry, and Land Rehabilitation)
Actions Skenario Kumulative (2014‐2030) Peat restoration (x1000 ha)1 BAU ‐ CM1 1,396 CM2 2,908 Aktual2 ‐ Improve water management (x1000 ha) BAU ‐ CM1 1,656 CM2 1,728 Aktual2 ‐
1‐ Successful rate 90% Source: MoEF, 2018 Presidential Regulation No. 57/2016 as revision to Presidential Regulation No. 71/2014: apply more rigid rules in using peat land and mandating government at all levels, to develop protection and management of peat land in coordinated ways and also to restore/rehabilitate the degraded peat land
Extensive areas of deforested and drained peatlands are not cultivated and have extreme fire risk ~ >2 Mha
Drained Peatland is very vulnerable to fires
that mandate all level of governments to develop land and forest fire management system at their jurisdiction and sanction for business players who do not implement the fire management in the area under their authority
brought into the court and most cases the Government win the case. The penalty fund is planned to be used for financing mitigation activities (also incentive ~ Presidential Regulation 47/2017 Environmental Economic Instrument EEI Regulate incentive, disincentive and financial support for environmental protection and management)
Actions Scenarios Cumulative (2013‐ 2030) Rate (x1000 ha) BAU 18.259 CM1 31.099 CM2 31.099 Aktual2 ‐
RIL) and ENR (Enhanced Natural Regeneration)
Policies that mandate all forest concession holders to have forest sustainable management
apply sustainable management practices Crown Cover Conservation Non‐FMU FMU APL Total <30% 17,589 30,216 184,316 149,045 381,166 30%‐70% 422,715 383,269 2,285,067 1,822,375 4,913,425 >70% 16,130,479 5,806,979 56,193,743 4,931,265 83,062,465 Total 16,570,783 6,220,464 58,663,126 6,902,684 88,357,057
Source: MoEF, 2018
developing medium and long‐term development plan
incentive system
in high risk area and synchronization of program across directorate supporting the social forestry programs and TORA
access to market
Agency for Environmental Fund)
Main driver of GHG emissions over the past decade has been economic activity, which increased at a rate of 5% to 6% per year, in which it will keep 5.5% (2020 to 2030) Decreasing energy use per GDP in mitigation scenario (compared to BaU) indicate improvement of efficiency Carbon intensity is still increasing indicate more fossil energy use
for Energy, considering the use of baseline technologies, this could lead to a climb in future energy related emissions.
and fast‐changing demand for energy.
Independences ₋ Moving away from Oil, reducing Oil to 25% of total supply in 2025 ₋ Utilization of strategic assets (Coal and Natural Gas) ₋ Energy efficiency improvements ₋ New Energy (nuclear, CBM, shale‐gas) and Renewable energies.
thousands island
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES & DEVELOPMENT TRENDS: ENERGY
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation BaU Mitigation Pop GDP/Cap
Final Energy/cap Electricity/cap GHG/cap
BaU vs Miigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
PILARS OF DECARBONIZATION
Pillar 1 Energy efficiency measures would decrease energy intensity of GDP (Energy per GDP) Pillar 2 Renewable Energy will reduce fossil fuel combustions and reduce emission Pilar 3 Decarbonization of electricity will reduce fossil fuel combustions and reduce emission (as long as the power generation is also decarbonized) Pillar 4 Fuel Switching to low carbon emitting fuels (from kerosene to LPG or natural gas) would decrease GHG emission in Households
0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.79
Base Year BaU Mitigation 2010 2030
Final Energy/GDP, TOE/Million Rp
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Base Year Baseline Mitigation 2010 2030
Final Energy Consumption, MTOE
Coal Oil Product Natural Gas Biomassa Electricity Biofuel
‐ 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Base Year Baseline Mitigation 2010 2030
Energy supply in power, MToe
Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Solar&Wind Biomasa Geothermal Biofuel ‐ 100 200 300 400 500 600 Base Year Baseline Mitigation 2010 2030
Primary Energy Supply, MToe
Coal Oil Product Natural Gas Hydro Solar&Wind Biomasa Geothermal Biofuel
GHG Emissions Reduction Target of The NDC in Energy Sector
314
ENERGY Energy Efficiency
96.86
RENEWABLE
149.86
Clean Energy
57.76
Fuel Switching
9.52
CCT
50.32
GAS
7.44
Power
42.93
Commerce 5.56
Industry
26.58
Power
113.61
Residential 9.52 Transport 21.79 Transport 22.16 Energy efficiency: Residential :
Kerosene 80ktoe
Gas 38 ktoe
Commerce : Oil fuel 2 ktoe Gas 1 ktoe
Electric.161 ktoe
Industry : ‐Coal 239 ktoe
k ‐Oil fuels 425 ktoe ‐Gas1,196 ktoe ‐Electric 647 ktoe
Transport :
‐Oil Fuels 7,366 ktoe
‐Gas 4 ktoe ‐Electric. 16 ktoe
Additional renewab. electricity compared to 2010 Power generation
: ‐Hydro
2,621 ktoe
‐Geothermal
3,507 ktoe
‐Solar&Wind 317ktoe ‐Biomass
363 ktoe
‐Biofuel 644ktoe
Addition of biofuel compared to 2010
Transport : ‐Biofuel use
7,708 ktoe
Power generation
‐SC
1,692 ktoe
‐USC
5,692 ktoe
‐ Gas turb & Comb cycl. 820 ktoe
Additional gas use compared to 2010
Residential ‐7,100 ktoe Industry
14.09
Additional biomass Compared to 2010
Industry : ‐Biomass use
. 4,775
ktoe
GHG Emission in Million Ton CO2e
Energy Supply Mix in Power Sector and The Associated GHG Emissions
‐ 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigasi Baseline Mitigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Biofuel Geothermal Biomasa Solar&Wind Hydro Natural Gas Oil Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigasi Baseline Mitigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GTon CO2e
Biofuel Geothermal Biomasa Solar&Wind Hydro Natural Gas Oil Coal
Year Geothermal Hydro and Pump Storage Solar Energy Wind Energy CPO Based Power Add. (MW) Inst. Capacity (MW) Add. (MW) Inst. Capacity (MW) Add. (MW) Inst. Capacity (MW) Add. (MW) Inst. Capacity (MW) Add. (MW) Inst. Capacity (MW) 2019 190 2.138.5 294 5.233 63 88,19 71,07 44,2 2020 151 2.289.5 564 5.797 78,5 166,69 71,07 738,8 783,0 2021 147 2.436.5 1.234 7.031 219,3 385,99 30 101,1 108,8 891,8 2022 455 2.891.5 200 7.231 129 514,99 360 461,1 108,8 1000,6 2023 300 3.191.5 350 7.581 160,3 675,29 260 721,1 108,8 1109,4 2024 360 3.551.5 1.716 9.297 3,7 678,99 50 771,1 108,8 1218,2 2025 3690 7.241.5 3.074 12.371 250 928,99 150 921,1 110,5 1328,7 Bio Energy Technology Additional Capacity of Bioenergy (MW) Cummulative upto 2025 (MW) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Biodiesel (PLT Bio) 62 55.2 70 39.8 102.6 4 333.6 MSW Power (PLTSa) 2 12.5 234 10 258.5 CPO Biofuel (PLTBn CPO) 5 5 Biomass (PLTBm) 3.5 50.7 15 52.9 5 5 132.1 Biogas (PLTBg) 6.4 8.5 5 19.9 Total 11.9 138.7 70.2 356.9 49.8 102.6 19 749
Final Energy Use (not Include Transport) and The Associated GHG Emissions
‐ 50 100 150 200 250
Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MToe
Industry Residential Commerce
‐ 50 100 150 200 250
Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MToe
Electricity Biomass Nat Gas Oil Coal
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emission, GTon CO2e Industry Residential Commerce
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 Baseline CM1 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emission, GTon CO2e
Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Fuels Coal
Energy Supply Mix in Power Sector and The Associated GHG Emissions
‐ 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Final Energy, MToe
Oil Product Natural Gas Biofuel 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Base Year Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation Baseline Mitigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GHG Emission, MTon CO2e
Oil Product Natural Gas Biofuel 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Emission Reduction, Mton CO2e
Greening of airport Street light PV SBNP Train Double Track North Java Ship Efficiency (EEDI+SEEMP) SmarT drive TraiN freIght Plane renewal PBN Mass transport
Increased efficiency of the transportation system, which includes: ₋ Increased mass transportation: BRT, MRT, LRT, Train ₋ Increased efficiency of transport equipment: vehicle rejuvenation, ₋ Electric motorized vehicles: KBL, LCEV (with low carbon electricity) ₋ Energy‐efficient vehicles: LCGC (Low Cost Green Car) ₋ Increased efficiency in land transportation management: odd even, Area Traffic Control System (ATCS), Performance Based Navigation (PBN) ₋ Improvement of ship efficiency: Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) ₋ Double track Pantura train ₋ Increased use of trains for the transport of goods (moving from trucks to trains) ₋ Development of Sailing Navigation Supporting Facilities (SBNP) Increased use of low emissions fuels include: ₋ CNG Vehicle Upgrade (replaces BBM) ₋ Increased octane number (RON> 88) ₋ Increased use of biofuel (replacing BBM)
Industry Sector
‐ 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Million ton CO2e
Energy efficiency Biomass
Conclusions and Remarks
‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Gross Output, Triliun Rupiah
Industri Jasa (Services) Industri Semen Industri Besi Baja Transportasi Konstruksi Industri Kimia Industri Pulp Kertas Industri Manufaktur Energi‐Tambang‐Utilitas Agro‐Ternak‐Hutan‐ Perikanan
19,082 18,924 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
PDB, triliun rupiah
BaU CM1
124
119
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20102012201420162018202020222024202620282030
Employment, Million People
BaU CM1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 01 02 03 04 05a 05b 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23a 23b 24 25 26 27 28 29 30tc 30to 30tg 30g 30h 30s 30w 30b 30z 31 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Rasio Output per sub‐sektor pada tahun 2030 (2010=1)
Baseline CM1 50 100 150 200 250 30g Geothermal 30h Hydro 30w Wind 30b Bioenergy 30z MSW power
Gross Output Increase
Mitigation BaU
9.6 x
Conclusion and Remark
efficiency, (2) renewable energy, (3) clean power (decarbonization of electricity), fuel switching to Low Carbon Emitting fuels (kerosene to LPG/Natural Gas) in households; among of these pillars, renewable energy will contribute to the reduction of about 48% of total GHG emissions reduction in energy sector.
the BaU
consumption to carry out conservation or energy efficiency efforts with certain targets;
pursued by the public (companies & individuals), at an attractive price that encourages the RE Electricity development;