INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and ITs 2050 VISION CURRENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and ITs 2050 VISION CURRENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and ITs 2050 VISION CURRENT CONDITIONS At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows: There are great potential energy sources Society's access to energy is still limited Oil fuel

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SLIDE 1

INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT’s 2050 VISION

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SLIDE 2

CURRENT CONDITIONS

At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows:

  • There are great potential energy sources
  • Society's access to energy is still limited
  • Oil fuel consumption is 63% of total energy consumption
  • Gas and coal prices are higher on the export market than on

the domestic market, Domestic consumers have low purchasing power.

  • The energy industry is not optimal

– Limited energy infrastructure (Appendixes G1 s/d G4, pages 33-36) – Energy prices (such as for fuel, gas for fertilizer factories and new/ renewable energies) that are not commensurate with their economic value (Appendix H, page 40) – Inefficient energy utilization (Appendix I, page 41)

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SLIDE 3

EXPECTED CONDITIONS

  • Rational Energy prices
  • Society’s access to energy
  • Better economic conditions will increase

society’s purchasing power

  • Security of energy supply (Balanced

Energy Mix)

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SLIDE 4

Listrik 11% BBM 42% LPG 1% Gas Kota 19% Batubara 27% Listrik 0% BBM 100% LPG 0% Gas Kota 0% Batubara 0%

Industri 41% Rumah Tangga dan Komersial 24% Transportasi 35%

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2005

Listrik 12% BBM 67% LPG 2% Gas Kota 8% Batubara 11%

Listrik 31% BBM 63% LPG 6% Gas Kota 0% Batubara 0%

Household&Comercial Transport Industry

26 Juta KL 12 Juta KL

By Fuel Type by Sector

100 TWh 54 Juta KL 500 BSCF 13 Juta Ton 1,1 Juta Ton

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SLIDE 5

Trend of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Persen PLTA Biofuel Batubara EBT Lainnya Gas Bumi Minyak Bumi Panas Bumi

Oil Geothermal Natural Gas Coal Hydropower

Renewable

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SLIDE 6

CO2 Emission from Energy Utilization

50 100 150 200 250 300 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4

Million Ton Other Sector Transport Household Industry PowerPlant

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SLIDE 7

2005 CO2 Emission by Sources

PowerPlant 26% Industry 37% Household 10% Other Sector 4% Transport 23%

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SLIDE 8

NATIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALS 2004

147 130 million barrels 19.3 billion tons 57 billion tons Coal 61 3.0 TSCF 182 TSCF 384.7 TSCF Gas 18 500 million barrels 9 billion barrels 86.9 billion barrels Oil CAD/PROD RATIO (without exploration) Years PRODUCTION (per annum) RESERVES

(Proven + Possible)

RESOURCES TYPES OF FOSSIL- BASED ENERGY 24.112 Tons* e.q. 3 GW for 11 years Uranium (Nuclear) 8.00 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/ day Solar energy 302.40 MW 49.81 GW Biomass 4,200.00 MW 6,851.00 GWh 75.67 GW 845.00 million BOE Hydroelectric power 800.00 MW 2,593.50 GWh 27.00 GW 219.00 million BOE Geothermal power 84.00 MW 458.75 MW 458.75 MW Mini/Micro hydro INSTALLED CAPACITY USAGE EQUAL TO RESOURCES NON-FOSSIL ENERGY 0.50 MW 9.29 GW Wind power

* Only in the Kalan region – West Kalimantan

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SLIDE 9

Grissik Palembang Semarang

RESERVES AND NETWORKS OF GAS PIPELINES

Pacific Ocean

AUSTRALIA

Indian Ocean

Bangkok

Phnom Penh

Ban Mabtapud

Ho Chi Minh City

CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS

Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSI A Penang Kerteh

Kuala Lumpur

Manila Philipines South China Sea

S i n g a p

  • r

e G a s T r u n k l i n e NatunaAlpha Kota Kinibalu

BRUNEI

Bandara Seri Begawan

Bintul u

EAST MALAYSIA

Kuchin g

Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri Padang

S U M A T R A

Jambi Bintan

SINGAPORE

Samarinda

Balikpapan Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal

Attaka Tunu Bekapai

KALIMANTAN

Banjarmasin Manado

SULAWESI

Ujung Pandang

BURU SERAM

Ternate

HALMAHERA

Sorong

IRIAN JAYA

Jakarta

J A V A

Surabaya Bangkalan

BALI SUMBAWA

Pagerungan LOMBOK Cirebon

FLORES

SUMBA

TIMOR

I N D O N E S I A

Duyong

W est Natuna

Port Dickson Port Klang

Mogpu

Dumai Batam Guntong

51,627 3,756 0,720 11,516 5,855 5,529 34,021 3,894 18,520

GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF) TOTAL RESERVES 2P : 142.462 BSCF

0,11 3,00 Massela

Ardjuna Fields

MADURA

3,854

Existing Pipeline Planned Pipeline

Jayapur a Merauke

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SLIDE 10

Grissik Palembang Semarang

Pacific Ocean

AUSTRALIA

Indian Ocean

Bangkok

Phnom Penh

Ban Mabtapud

Ho Chi Minh City

CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS

Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSI A Penang Kerteh

Kuala Lumpur

Manila Philipines South China Sea

NatunaAlpha Kota Kinibalu

BRUNEI

Bandara Seri Begawan

Bintul u

EAST MALAYSIA

Kuchin g

Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri

S U M A T R A

Jambi Bintan

SINGAPORE

Samarinda

Balikpapan Bontan g

Attaka Tunu Bekapai

KALIMANTAN

Banjarmasin Manado

SULAWESI BURU SERAM

Ternate Sorong

IRIAN JAYA

Jakarta

J A V A

Surabaya Bangkalan

BALI SUMBAWA

LOMBOK

FLORES

SUMBA

TIMOR

Duyong

W est Natuna

Mogpu

Dumai Batam Guntong

MADURA

REFINERIES AND Fuel TRANSPORTATION MODE

Bandung Yogyakarta

Transit Terminal Pipeline Distribution Tanker Oil Refinery

  • P. Brandan: 5

MBOPD Balongan : 125 MBOPD Kasim : 10 MBOPD Musi 135.20 MBOPD Balikpapan : 260 MBOPD

Ujung Pandang Pagerungan

HALMAHERA

TOTAL REFINERY CAPACITY 1,057,000 BOPD

Jayapur a Merauke

Cepu : 3.80 MBOPD S.Pakning : 50 MBOPD Cilacap: 348 MBOPD Dumai : 120 MBOPD

Padang Port Klang Port Dickson

I N D O N E S I A

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SLIDE 11

TARGETS:

1.Per-capita energy consumption of a minimum of 10 BOE (RIKEN) and 95% electrification ratio 95% (RUKN) in the year 2025 2.To achieve the security of domestic energy supply, through:

  • Energy elasticity less than 1 in the year 2025
  • An optimal (primary) energy mix in 2025 :

– The role of oil decreases to 26.2% – The role of natural gas increases to 30.6% – The role of coal increases to 32.7% – The role of geothermal power increases to 3.8% – The role of new and renewable sources of energy increases to 4.4%

  • The fulfillment of fossil-based domestic energy supply

through the gradual reduction of exports

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SLIDE 12

NATIONAL ENERGI MIX TARGET FOR THE YEAR 2025

(GR No. 5 / 2006)

OIL 20 % Gas 30 % COAL 33 %

NRE 17 %

Bio-fuel 5 % Geothermal 5 % Biomass, Nuclear, Hydropower, Solar, Wind 5 % Coal Liquefaction 2 %

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SLIDE 13

Projected Trends of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 Percent

Oil Geothermal Natural Gas Coal Hydropower Bio Fuel

Renewable

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SLIDE 14

Energy Snap-Shot

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SLIDE 15

Energy Snap-Shot Industrial Sector

  • 50

100 150 200 250 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE

Energy consumption in industrial sector (Mtoe)

CO2 emission in industrial sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B Economic (VA) increase 4% p.a increase 4% p.a. Energy Mix Oil Reduction (50%) Oil Reduction (60%) + New Technology Efficiency Increase Fuel 10%, Ele 25% Fuel 25%, Ele 50%

  • 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2050 A (C M ) 2050 B (C M ) C O L O IL G A S B M S S /W H ea t H 2 E L E

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SLIDE 16

Energy Snap-Shot Residential Sector

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 2000 2050 A (C M ) 2050 B (C M ) C O L O IL G A S B M S S /W H ea t H 2 E L E

Energy consumption in Residential sector (Mtoe)

CO2 emission in Residential sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B Growth Rate Cooling 1.5%, Cook(S) 1%, Hot Wtr 0.5%, Cook(E) 1.5%, Lighting (2%), Appliance (2.5%) Energy Mix Oil Reduction; Changed of Non Commersial F A + Advanced Tech. Hot Water, Cooking, etc Efficiency Increase 20% 25%

  • 5

10 15 20 2000 2050 A (C M ) 2050 B (C M ) C O L O IL G AS B M S S /W H eat H 2 E LE

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SLIDE 17

Energy Snap-Shot Transport Sector

  • 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE

Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe)

CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

  • 20

40 60 80 100 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE

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SLIDE 18

Energy Snap-Shot Power Generation

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W

Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe)

CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM)

COL GAS OIL NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W

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SLIDE 19

Energy Demand Projection

  • 100

200 300 400 500 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD S/W

Primary Energy (Mtoe) Final Energy (Mtoe)

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 2000 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM)

Industrial Residential Commercial

  • Trans. Prv.
  • Trans. Frg.
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SLIDE 20

Factor Analysis Total

402%

  • 103%
  • 139%
  • 22%

138% 365%

  • 86%
  • 166%
  • 34%

79%

  • 200%
  • 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% D E /D C /E C '/C Total vs 2000's 2050 A 2050 B

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SLIDE 21

AIM/End-use

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SLIDE 22

Oil Subsidy Reduction for Residential Oil Used

Residential Energy Service Requirement Cooking -> devices

Kerosene Stove Gas Stove Biomass Stove Electric Stove

Lighting -> devices Incandescent Bulb

Compact Fluorescent Lamp Kerosene Lamp

Electric Appliances

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SLIDE 23