Importance of Reliable Continuous Records of the Earth Systems / Earth System Research Laboratory y y Global Monitoring Annual Conference May 18 2010 T. J. Blasing “Ensuring Continuity and Reliability of Long Term Measurements.”
1. Is Carbon Dioxide Increasing? 2 A 2. Are CO 2 changes anthropogenic? CO h th i ? 3. Is the temperature increasing? 4. Are 1 and 3 related? Beer’s Law M.N. Berberan-Santos, 1990. J Chem Educ 67 p 757 J. Chem. Educ. 67, p 757
I sotopic signatures of fossil carbon Docum entation of Tropospheric CO 2 I ncreases are show ing up in the atm osphere CO 2 concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA n (ppmv) Atmospheric 13 CO 2 at Mauna Loa 390 380 il) -7 r m 370 370 CO 2 concentration 2 (per -7.2 7 2 360 -7.4 13 C in CO 350 -7.6 -7.8 340 -8 330 σ -8.2 320 -8.4 -8.6 Charles David Keeling (1928-2005) 310 -8.8 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Dr. Keeling was the first to document, through continuous g , g 195 195 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 -9 measurements, the current rise in atmospheric CO 2 , its 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 annual cycle and interannual variations Carbon dioxide increases are associated with Docum entation of Fossil-Carbon Em issions matching drawdowns of atmospheric oxygen. Global Em issions of Oxidized Carbon 1 7 5 0 -2 0 0 7 Global Fossil Carbon Emissions CDIAC personnel involved CDIAC personnel involved Global Fossil Carbon Emissions Tg - C) 9000 10000 g - C) 9000 10000 8000 8000 8000 Em issio n s ( T Em issio n s ( Tg C) 8000 8000 7000 7000 Emissions (Tg-C 7000 6000 Cement 6000 6000 6000 Gas Flaring Gregg Marland Tom Boden Bob Andres 4000 Gregg Marland Tom Boden Bob Andres 5000 5000 Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’ of global, Gregg Marland Tom Boden Bob Andres 4000 4000 2000 4000 regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’ of global, Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom 3000 Oil Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is 3000 regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’ of global, 0 consistently about twice that needed to explain the Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom 2000 regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg 2000 Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken 2000 Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom 1000 consistently about twice that needed to explain the Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is 1000 Coal 0 0 consistently about twice that needed to explain the Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken g , g 0 0 Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken 0 up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. 1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1750 1782 1814 1846 1878 1910 1942 1974 2006 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Docum entation of Global Tem perature Changes Hubert H. Lamb (1913-1997) Hubert Lamb, Founding Director of the Hubert Lam b, Founding Director of the Clim ate Research Unit at the University of li h i h i i f Clim ate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia recognized the im portance of a East Anglia recognized the im portance of a consistent tim e series of Earths near- consistent tim e series of Earths near- surface tem perature. His w ork led to the surface temperature. His w ork led to a tem perature record used by the tem perature record used by the I ntergovernm ental Panel on Clim ate I ntergovernmental Panel on Clim ate Change ( I PCC) . Change ( I PCC) .
Data Gathering (providing good quality information) Data Gathering (providing good quality information) Quality Assurance (techniques, calibration, adjustments) Record keeping Consistent time series Independent redundant measurements/estimates Data Management (preserving/displaying the information) Discovery of recorded mistakes Archiving of time series Archiving of time series Presentation Analysis (using the information) Analysis (using the information) Causes Effects
Importance of redundant/corroborating data 1. Is Carbon Dioxide Increasing? 1. (revised) Are Greenhouse Gases Increasing? AGAGE NOAA SULFUR HEXAFLOURI DE 8 ation ( pptv) 7.5 7 6.5 6.5 Concentra 6 MACE HEAD 5.5 CAPE GRIM 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 METHANE METHANE METHANE 1900 1850 ation ( ppbv) ation (ppbv) 1850 1800 1800 1750 1750 Concentra Concentr 1700 1700 1650 MACE HEAD 1650 Mauna Loa CAPE GRIM 1600 1600 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 CFC - 1 2 550 ration ( pptv) 545 540 535 530 525 520 20 Concentr 515 510 MACE HEAD 505 CAPE GRIM 500 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2. Are CO 2 changes anthropogenic? Analysis Calculations of Global Emissions on an Annual Basis reveal that we’re not only making enough CO 2 to explain the atmospheric increase, but we’re making about twice that much. This bounds the amount of CO 2 taken up by the atmosphere and oceans . Because the calculations are made for each fuel type (solid, liquid, gas) isotopic composition can be estimated for comparison with changes in atmospheric concentrations. p g p 9000 8000 C) ions (Tg-C 7000 6000 5000 Emiss 4000 2001 2010 3000 2000 1000 1000 0 1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
2. Are CO 2 changes anthropogenic? Redundant data Discovery of recorded mistakes USA carbon emissions from natural gas consumption USA carbon emissions from natural gas consumption Mg m 3 Mg, m 3 Fuel amount Fuel amount • heat coefficient [MJ/amount] • carbon coefficient [g/MJ] heat coefficient [MJ/amount] carbon coefficient [g/MJ] = carbon emissions. [g-C]
2. Are CO 2 changes anthropogenic? Redundant data Discovery of recorded mistakes Another reason for the higher estimates presented here, particularly for Another reason for the higher estimates presented here, particularly for 1976 to 1991, is an apparent problem in the United Nations (UN) energy data base for natural gas, on which the emissions estimates of Marland et al. (2003) are based. Post ‐ 1976 UN accounting apparently involved some ( ) g pp y confusion of US conventions on “wet” gas (before natural gas liquids are separated out) and “dry” gas (after the liquid portion has been separated out) and the change in heating value that occurs during this “shrinkage”. After 1991 the problem was largely compensated by an accounting change in the calculation of “shrinkage” (see Fig. 4).
Analysis 2. CO 2 changes are anthropogenic. Transport of Embodied Emissions Carbon emissions (PgC y -1 ) attributed to producers attributed to consumers 55% 55% 5 5 5 5 Annex B Annex B Annex B Annex B Developed Nations Developed Nations 4 4 4 4 Developed Nations Developed Nations 45% 45% 3 3 3 3 25% of growth 25% of growth Developing Nations Developing Nations 2 2 2 2 Developing Nations Developing Nations Non-Annex B Non-Annex B Non-Annex B Non-Annex B 2000 2000 2010 2010 2000 2000 2010 2010 1990 1990 1990 1990 25% of the emissions growth in developing countries (2000 ‐ 2008) is due to the manufacturing of products consumed in developed countries. Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009
2. CO 2 Changes are anthropogenic Analysis 2008 2009 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
2. CO 2 changes are anthropogenic. Analysis 4000 4000000 MoGas Distillate Jet Fuel 3500 3500000 of Barrels 3000 3000000 2500 2500000 Millions o 2000 2000000 1500 1500000 1000 1000000 500 500 500000 500000 0 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1.2 e MoGas MoGas Distillate Distillate Jet Fuel Jet Fuel n of 2005 Valu 1 0.8 cimal Fraction 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2 Dec 0 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005 2010 2006
Importance of redundant/ 3. Is the temperature increasing? Oceanic data only 0.6 corroborating data 0.4 0.2 Documentation of Global Warming 0 -0.2 -0.4 Hubert Horace Lamb (1913-1997) -0.6 Buoys Gulls -0.8 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 RSS = Remote Sensing Systems UAH = University of Alabama, Huntsville
3. Is the temperature increasing? Importance of redundant/corroborating data http://www.usanpn.org/
3. Is the temperature increasing? Importance of redundant/corroborating data
3. Is the temperature increasing? Importance of redundant/corroborating data ng) Freezing and Thawing of Lake Mendota (WI) g g ( ) 200 200 ing and closi y = -0.0901x + 161.76 180 160 11/1 for open 140 y = -0.1701x + 117.2 120 100 Days (after 1 80 60 40 Number of 20 Opening Date No. of Days Open Closing Date y = 0.08x + 44.557 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
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