Importance of Reliable Continuous Records of the Earth Systems / - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
importance of reliable continuous records of the earth
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Importance of Reliable Continuous Records of the Earth Systems / - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 02, 2023 283 likes •543 views

Importance of Reliable Continuous Records of the Earth Systems / Earth System Research Laboratory y y Global Monitoring Annual Conference May 18 2010 T. J. Blasing Ensuring Continuity and Reliability of Long Term Measurements. 1. Is

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Importance of Reliable Continuous Records of the Earth Systems

Earth System Research Laboratory / y y Global Monitoring Annual Conference May 18 2010

  • T. J. Blasing

“Ensuring Continuity and Reliability of Long Term Measurements.”

slide-2
SLIDE 2
slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • 1. Is Carbon Dioxide Increasing?

2 A CO h th i ?

  • 2. Are CO2 changes anthropogenic?
  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?
  • 4. Are 1 and 3 related?

Beer’s Law M.N. Berberan-Santos, 1990. J Chem Educ 67 p 757

  • J. Chem. Educ. 67, p 757
slide-4
SLIDE 4

CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA 370 380 390 n (ppmv) Docum entation of Tropospheric CO2 I ncreases

7 2

  • 7

Atmospheric 13CO2 at Mauna Loa

r m il) I sotopic signatures of fossil carbon are show ing up in the atm osphere

310 320 330 340 350 360 370 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 CO 2 concentration

Charles David Keeling (1928-2005)

  • Dr. Keeling was the first to document, through continuous
  • 8.8
  • 8.6
  • 8.4
  • 8.2
  • 8
  • 7.8
  • 7.6
  • 7.4
  • 7.2

σ

13C in CO 2 (per

195 195 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200

g , g measurements, the current rise in atmospheric CO2, its annual cycle and interannual variations

  • 9

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Docum entation of Fossil-Carbon Em issions Global Fossil Carbon Emissions 8000 10000

g - C)

CDIAC personnel involved

8000 10000

Tg - C)

CDIAC personnel involved 8000 9000

Global Fossil Carbon Emissions

Global Em issions of Oxidized Carbon 1 7 5 0 -2 0 0 7

7000 8000 9000

C)

Carbon dioxide increases are associated with matching drawdowns of atmospheric oxygen.

Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’

  • f global,

regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is consistently about twice that needed to explain the

2000 4000 6000 8000

Em issio n s ( Tg

Gregg Marland Bob Andres Tom Boden

Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’

  • f global,

regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is consistently about twice that needed to explain the Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.

2000 4000 6000

Em issio n s ( T

Gregg Marland Bob Andres Tom Boden

Each year, CDIAC compiles time series’

  • f global,

regional and national fossil carbon emissions. Gregg Marland leads the effort, with contributions from Tom Boden and Bob Andres. The amount emitted is consistently about twice that needed to explain the Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken

Gregg Marland Bob Andres Tom Boden 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Emissions (Tg-C

Coal Oil Gas Cement Flaring

Docum entation of Global Tem perature Changes

Keeling Curve, above. The remaining carbon is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.

1750 1782 1814 1846 1878 1910 1942 1974 2006

g , g up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.

1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Hubert H. Lamb (1913-1997)

Hubert Lam b, Founding Director of the Hubert Lamb, Founding Director of the li h i h i i f Clim ate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia recognized the im portance of a consistent tim e series of Earths near- surface tem perature. His w ork led to the tem perature record used by the I ntergovernm ental Panel

  • n

Clim ate Change ( I PCC) . Clim ate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia recognized the im portance of a consistent tim e series of Earths near- surface temperature. His w ork led to a tem perature record used by the I ntergovernmental Panel

  • n

Clim ate Change ( I PCC) .

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Data Gathering (providing good quality information) Data Gathering (providing good quality information) Quality Assurance (techniques, calibration, adjustments) Record keeping Consistent time series Independent redundant measurements/estimates Data Management (preserving/displaying the information) Discovery of recorded mistakes Archiving of time series Archiving of time series Presentation Analysis (using the information) Analysis (using the information) Causes Effects

slide-6
SLIDE 6

AGAGE NOAA

Importance of redundant/corroborating data

  • 1. Is Carbon Dioxide Increasing?
  • 1. (revised) Are Greenhouse Gases Increasing?

6.5 7 7.5 8

SULFUR HEXAFLOURI DE

ation ( pptv)

5 5.5 6 6.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MACE HEAD CAPE GRIM

Concentra

1750 1800 1850

METHANE

ation (ppbv)

1750 1800 1850 1900

METHANE

ation ( ppbv)

METHANE

1600 1650 1700

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Concentr

1600 1650 1700

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

MACE HEAD CAPE GRIM

Concentra

Mauna Loa

20 525 530 535 540 545 550

CFC - 1 2

ration ( pptv)

500 505 510 515 520 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

MACE HEAD CAPE GRIM

Concentr

slide-7
SLIDE 7
slide-8
SLIDE 8

Calculations of Global Emissions on an Annual Basis

Analysis

  • 2. Are CO2 changes anthropogenic?

reveal that we’re not only making enough CO2 to explain the atmospheric increase, but we’re making about twice that much. This bounds the amount of CO2 taken up by the atmosphere and oceans. Because the calculations are made for each fuel type (solid, liquid, gas) isotopic composition can be estimated for comparison with changes in atmospheric concentrations.

8000 9000

p g p

C)

5000 6000 7000

ions (Tg-C

1000 2000 3000 4000

2001 2010

Emiss

1000

1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

slide-9
SLIDE 9

USA carbon emissions from natural gas consumption

Redundant data Discovery of recorded mistakes

  • 2. Are CO2 changes anthropogenic?

USA carbon emissions from natural gas consumption Fuel amount heat coefficient [MJ/amount] carbon coefficient [g/MJ] Mg m3 Fuel amount • heat coefficient [MJ/amount] • carbon coefficient [g/MJ] = carbon emissions. Mg, m3

[g-C]

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Redundant data Discovery of recorded mistakes

  • 2. Are CO2 changes anthropogenic?

Another reason for the higher estimates presented here, particularly for Another reason for the higher estimates presented here, particularly for 1976 to 1991, is an apparent problem in the United Nations (UN) energy data base for natural gas, on which the emissions estimates of Marland et al. (2003) are based. Post‐1976 UN accounting apparently involved some ( ) g pp y confusion of US conventions on “wet” gas (before natural gas liquids are separated out) and “dry” gas (after the liquid portion has been separated

  • ut) and the change in heating value that occurs during this “shrinkage”.

After 1991 the problem was largely compensated by an accounting change in the calculation of “shrinkage” (see Fig. 4).

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Analysis

  • 2. CO2 changes are anthropogenic.

Transport of Embodied Emissions Carbon emissions (PgC y-1)

attributed to producers attributed to consumers

Annex B

Developed Nations

5 4

55%

Annex B

Developed Nations

5 4

55%

5

Annex B

Developed Nations

4 5

Annex B

Developed Nations

4

Developing Nations

Non-Annex B

3 2

45%

Developing Nations

Non-Annex B

3 2

45% 25% of growth

Developing Nations

Non-Annex B

3 2

25% of growth

Developing Nations

Non-Annex B

3 2 25% of the emissions growth in developing countries (2000‐2008) is due to the

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

manufacturing of products consumed in developed countries.

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Analysis

  • 2. CO2 Changes are anthropogenic

2008 2009 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

slide-13
SLIDE 13

4000000

MoGas Distillate Jet Fuel

4000

  • 2. CO2 changes are anthropogenic.

Analysis

2500000 3000000 3500000

3500 3000 2500

  • f Barrels

500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

2000 1500 1000 500

Millions o

1.2

MoGas Distillate Jet Fuel

e

500000 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

500 0.8 1

MoGas Distillate Jet Fuel

n of 2005 Valu

0 2 0.4 0.6

cimal Fraction

0.2

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Documentation of Global Warming

Importance of redundant/ corroborating data

  • 0.4
  • 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.6

Oceanic data only

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

Hubert Horace Lamb (1913-1997)

RSS = Remote Sensing Systems UAH = University of Alabama, Huntsville

  • 0.8
  • 0.6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Buoys Gulls

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Importance of redundant/corroborating data

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

http://www.usanpn.org/

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Importance of redundant/corroborating data

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?
slide-17
SLIDE 17
  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

Freezing and Thawing of Lake Mendota (WI)

200

ng)

Importance of redundant/corroborating data

g g ( )

y = -0.0901x + 161.76

160 180 200

ing and closi

y = -0.1701x + 117.2

100 120 140

11/1 for open

40 60 80

Days (after 1

y = 0.08x + 44.557

20

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Opening Date Closing Date

  • No. of Days Open

Number of

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Importance of Archiving

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

'Climategate': Scientists, Politicians War Over Hacked E-Mails Do They Prove a Global Warming 'Conspiracy' or Honest Debate? The Heat Builds

I il i f i i h t d b t

  • Dec. 4, 2009

In e-mails, science of warming is hot debate

By David A. Fahrenthold and Juliet Eilperin Washington Post Staff Writer g Sunday, December 5, 2009

slide-19
SLIDE 19

>Dale, > Ages ago there were two US DoE Technical Reports numbered 22 and 27 O f h NH d f h SH Th h

Importance of Archiving

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

>27. One was for the NH and one was for the SH. They have years >1985 and 1986. I'm sure you recall them. > Did we send you the station data? I'm sure we did on mag tapes >probably! Do you still have it? I can't see the two TRs or the d li l i if h If h li >datasets online, so apologies if they are. If they are not online can >you see if you still have them somewhere and email them back to us. > We have copies here, but we want to check whether they are the same >as the one we sent you ages ago. > > When replying can you include the cc in the message. > > Ch >Cheers >Phil > > P f Phil J >Prof. Phil Jones >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 >592090 >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >U i it f E t A li >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, >UK Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk<mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Importance of Archiving

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

At 19:53 04/12/2009, Kaiser, Dale Patrick wrote: Dear Phil, I spoke with Tom Boden about these databases and Tom has presented the b l ith d t ti b t th t ti d t summary below with regard to your questions about the station data. Best wishes from all of us at CDIAC, Dale

  • In 1991, when CDIAC updated the original gridded temperature anomalies through 1990 (i.e, NDP020/R1)

CRU provided the underlying monthly mean temperature records from individual stations. The original release of the database (i.e., NDP020 with gridded anomalies through 1984) following the publication of TR027 in 1986 did not contain the individual station records According to the documentation for TR027 in 1986 did not contain the individual station records. According to the documentation for NDP020/R1, the records for NH stations are corrected but the records for the SH are not and lack 5 expected stations (e.g., Lincoln College, New Zealand). These files have been, and remain, freely available since June 1993 from the CDIAC FTP server (see URLs below). Please realize we were still spinning 9-track tapes, 8mm tapes, and the like to satisfy data requests from the time of publication of the updates (October 1991) until June 1993. ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/ndp020/jonesnh.dat

  • • •
  • • •
slide-21
SLIDE 21

Importance of Archiving

  • 3. Is the temperature increasing?

The original data are there, the CRU temperature record can be reconstructed from original data

724640 383 1045 1428 PUEBLO USA 1 1889 1980 10 1890 (data are in 0.1°C) 1889 -40 -4 68 121 154 204 244 243 170 118 6 57 112 1890 -4 14 63 103 153 207 247 222 176 103 50 27 113

  • • •

1973

  • 14

17 59 83 152 218 241 247 182 134 56 0 114 1973 14 17 59 83 152 218 241 247 182 134 56 0 114 1974 -32 27 83 107 187 224 259 227 174 138 53 -18 119 1975 -2 8 47 96 154 211 249 241 178 126 35 25 114 1976

  • 6

46 36 107 153 208 248 225 177 91 22 6 109 1976 -6 46 36 107 153 208 248 225 177 91 22 6 109 1977 -24 34 56 123 185 234 253 234 197 121 48 22 124 1978 -38 -16 65 118 144 212 255 227 193 120 38 -44 106 1979 88 13 62 110 142 205 247 221 197 129 21 11 106 1979 -88 13 62 110 142 205 247 221 197 129 21 11 106 1980 -21 29 48 91 146 227 268 244 194 113 49 51 120

slide-22
SLIDE 22

CO2 EMISSIONS AFFECT CO2 EMISSIONS

Analysis CO2 Emissions Atmospheric CO2 Energy Sources Concentrations Energy Needs Needs Radiation Balance V ti l T t P fil General Atmospheric Circulation Global Temperature Pattern Vertical Temperature Profile Global Precipitation Pattern

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Analysis

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Analysis

You heard it first on WGMD

4 3 2 1 Million metric tons of 0 oxidized carbon

slide-25
SLIDE 25