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Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement
- Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs
Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Copenhagen University June 17, 2016 THE WORLD HAS ENTERED THE AGE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ADOPTION OF
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT MEANS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THAT IS SOCIALLY INCLUSIVE AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE
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THE SDGS WILL OPERATE DURING 2016-2030
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Defining a Sustainable Development Trajectory to 2050 and 2100 Demography Economic Development Agriculture, Energy and the Planetary Boundaries Megacities Migration and World Regions in Crisis
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1950 1961 1972 1983 1994 2005 2016 2027 2038 2049 2060 2071 2082 2093 Medium Variant High Variant Low Variant
World Population to 2100: UN Fertility Variants
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Source: Rockström et al 2009a)
HUMANITY IS VIOLATING THE “PLANETARY BOUNDARIES”
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2-degree C BAU: 4-6 degree C
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Source: Rockström et al 2009a)
HUMANITY IS VIOLATING THE “PLANETARY BOUNDARIES”
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Sea Level in the Eamian
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Land Lost to 6M Sea Level Rise, NASA
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THE PARIS AGREEMENT Hold the increase in the global Average temperature “to well below 2° C” and “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C.
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LONG-TERM LOW GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, ARTICLE 4, PARA 19 All parties should “formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse emission development strategies” by 2020
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Main Decarbonization Strategies
0% 25% 50% 75% 2050 2014
Share of Electricity and Electric Fuels in Total Final Energy (%)
Strategy Key Metric of Transformation
200 400 600 2050 2014
Electricity Emissions Intensity (gCO2/kWh)
0,0 5,0 10,0 2050 2014
Energy Intensity of GDP (GJ/$2005)
Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Decarbonization of Electricity End Use Fuel Switching to Electric Sources
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DENMARK ENERGY STRATEGY 2050
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THE DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS PROJECT
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Electricity Supply: By Fuel Type and Demand Sector
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Final Energy in 2050 (EJ)
Fossil Fossil (CCS) Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Residential Commercial Transportation Industrial Intermediate Energy Carriers
Fossil Generation Fossil w/CCS
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind
Solar Intermediate Energy Carriers ELECTRIC SUPPLY SOURCES: ELECTRIC DEMAND SECTORS: Industrial Transportation Commercial Residential
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WHO’S RESERVES WILL BE STRANDED?
FROM McGLADE AND EKINS, NATURE MAGAZINE, JANUARY 8, 2015
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Some Principles for the Transition:
Minimize Global Mitigation Costs, Across Countries And Over Time (Efficiency) Distribute Costs Equitably, According to Historical Responsibility, Damages, Ability To Pay, Ability to Adjust, Across Generations Adapt as well as Mitigate Manage Risks (insurance, resilience, and learning) Invest in R&D and Social Learning, Public and Private
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Diverse Policy Instruments:
Corrective Pricing (tax, permit) Choice of Technology (complexities of Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Hydro) Choice of Siting and Transmission Grids RDD&D and IP Policies Income Redistribution within, across generations
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Key Principles for Long-Term Success
Low-Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) to 2050 Specialized Public Institutions for the Energy Transition Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps and RDD&D: Renewables, Hydro, Nuclear, CCS Electric Vehicles, Electric Heating Use Regulation as Well as Pricing Phase out all Coal Without CCS End Arctic, deep-sea, oil sand exploration and development Plan to Strand High-Cost Hydrocarbons, with equity Use Cross-Border Grids and Systems “Smart” cities Climate Financing (especially GCF, GEF, MDBs)
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LOW-EMISSIONS SOLUTIONS CONFERENCE AT COP 22 on November 12-16, 2016 Co-Hosted By the Government of Morocco with:
UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)
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The World in 2050 Initiative
Hosted at the International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
With: Earth Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Stockholm Resiliency Institute PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency And many others!
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