IMPACT OF THE ROHINGYA CRISIS ON HOST COMMUNITIES IN COXS BAZAR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IMPACT OF THE ROHINGYA CRISIS ON HOST COMMUNITIES IN COX’S BAZAR AND BANDARBAN DISTRICTS

POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (PRI) OF BANGLADESH COX’S BAZAR, 7 MAY 2018

BACKGROUND

An estimated 1.1 million Rohingya people fled to Bangladesh from August 2017 T

• ok shelter mostly in Cox’s Bazaar

district and some in Bandarban Rohingya refugees are at least one- third of the host population in CXB Rohingya refugees in Ukhiya upazila is estimated about three times the local population.

ASSESSMENT AREAS FOR THE STUDY

Identifying socio-economic impacts on host communities Impact on the public goods and services delivery capacity Identifying challenges and potential scopes for expanding Social Safety Net programmes.

ASSESSMENT AREA 1: SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ROHINGA CRISIS ON HOST COMMUNITIES

OBJECTIVES

T

• analyze current and potential

medium and long term economic impacts on host communities. T

• help design evidence-based policies

encompassing different time and circumstantial parameters. T

• find potential areas and

right/optimal programmatic instruments for UNDP

METHODOLOGY

Instruments: primary survey and FGDs Data generation strategies A household-level survey in Cox’s Bazar and a qualitative assessment in Bandarban.

A PRIMARY SURVEY IN COX’S BAZAR

• T

wo-stage stratified random sampling

• With 416,000 Cox’s Bazar households, a 5% margin of error and 95%

confidence level – the minimum number of households to be surveyed is estimated to be 385.

• Targeted sample size: 450 households
• Defined weights by population sizes for the upazilas to select sample
• First stage: Using weights, the number of households per upazila
• Second stage: From upazila to mouza levels for randomly selected

households

IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

• 5- or a 10-kilometres radius be the most affected areas
• Households close to affected areas (treatment group)
• Households at further distances (control group).
• Data collection following a recall method could be subject to limitations
• Measures will be employed to redress potential recall bias (e.g. adopting appropriate ‘wash
• ut period, and training of enumerators on cross-checking)

Aid

ROW Rohingya Economy Nearest Hosts Remote Hosts

Remittances

Goods Labour Wages Profits LEE ROW Real Estate T

• urism

Host Economy Transport Host Economy Goods and Services

• Deforestation

Groundwater Depletion Drinking water

• Production – Agriculture, livelihoods, suppressed

fishing opportunities

Rohingya

QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT IN BANDARBAN

• Qualitative tools: 5-10 FGDs in the Bandarban district (in

and around Naikhonchhari area)

• Target groups: local traders, school teachers, local

administrators, health care service providers and others

• Each FGD will contain 6-10 respondents (including women)
• A semi-structured questionnaire will be the key basis for

these FGDs

IDENTIFYING GAPS FOR OPTIMAL INTERVENTIONS

Affected sectors and socio-economic groups Potential areas of actions for UNDP (in collaboration with others) to be identified Design evidence-based policy suggestions from alternative choices using different time and circumstantial parameters Consider the potential risk factors, socio- economic dynamics and other local contexts Given the policy interventions, monitoring and evaluation frameworks will be prepared

Host communities Producers Consumers Traders Labourers Society Goods leakages from camps Goods demanded by camp residents Labour supplies from camps Water resources used in camps Forest resource used by camp

IMPACT ASSESSMENT: WINNERS AND LOSERS

ASSESSMENT AREA 2: COX’S BAZAR PUBLIC SERVICE AND PUBLIC GOODS DELIVERY CAPACITY

• Identify key public service delivery departments
• Assess the capacity of service delivery institutions
• Identify service delivery chains and their bottlenecks
• Develop a system of ensuring quality service delivery
• Project potential future demands of services
• Identify coordination system and areas of

improvement

• Identify best practices and areas of its replication
• Prepare proposal for a Multi-Year Action Plan

OBJECTIVES

METHODOLOGY FOR GATHERING INFORMATION

• Interviews with the government officials, including Divisional Commissioner, Deputy

Commissioner, Upazila Nirbahi Officer, Civil Surgeon etc., as required.

• Consultation with development partners and NGOs
• Drawing comparisons between the districts and Upazilas engaged in addressing the

Rohingya crisis with other Districts/Upazilas devoid of Rohingya influx.

• Performance review (in addressing the Rohingya crisis) of different departments, with a

view to Identify required capacity enhancements and service delivery improvements

ASSESSMENT AREA 3:

SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES DELIVERY IN COX’S BAZAR: BOTTLENECKS AND OPTIONS FOR EXPANSION TO ADDRESS CRISIS IMPACTS

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES

Summarize the impact of the SSN programmes in Cox’s Bazar over the last five-ten years preceding the Rohingya crisis

Develop and use a Micro- Simulation Model for CXB

HIES 2010 and 2016 will be used to specify the model Poverty measures will be estimated to quantify the impacts of SSN schemes over poverty and vulnerability in CXB.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES

Identify Socio-economic groups in CXB

• Use the data gathered from

the primary survey Select the SSN programmes most suitable to address the impact, estimate the number of beneficiaries and the cost Selection of SSN schemes: a) Identification of vulnerable socio-economic groups will help select core SSN schemes b) Single SSN scheme alone may not be enough to address the

• vulnerability. Hence a groups of

SSN schemes will be proposed

• Estimation of the number of

beneficiaries and cost of implementation

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES

5. Identify similar to SSN programme - employment generation support could possibly be extended to Rohingya (in a temporary camp environment); and estimate the possible number of beneficiaries and the cost of such programme

• Demand side: Interviews and discussions with local administration, NGOs and development

partners will likely to identify types of work need to be accomplished for functioning of the camps

• Supply side: Age and sex specific data of all Rohingya by camp
• T
• assess gaps between dd and ss
• A costing module will be used to calculate the cost of the interventions

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES

6. Estimate the overall cost and outline of the programmes under (4) and (5)

• The estimated costs of the SSN schemes for the affected host communities and temporary

employments for Rohingya community will be used to estimate the overall cost of

• interventions. The overall cost will consist (i) programme cost; and (ii) administration cost.

7. Assessment of operational capacities among line ministries and NGOs to implement the programme under (6)

• Staff capacity assessment
• Space capacity assessment
• Office equipment assessment

THANK YOU.