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IGES International Workshop on IGES International Workshop on the Clean Development Mechanism the Clean Development Mechanism March 24-25, 2000 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Basic Structure of IGES GHG Emission Model Basic Structure of IGES GHG

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IGES International Workshop on IGES International Workshop on the Clean Development Mechanism the Clean Development Mechanism

March 24-25, 2000 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Basic Structure of IGES GHG Emission Model Basic Structure of IGES GHG Emission Model

  • Initial GHG Projection of Japan

Initial GHG Projection of Japan -

  • Tae Yong Jung

Tae Yong Jung Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan Choon Choon-

  • Geol

Geol Moon Moon Hanyang Hanyang University, Korea University, Korea

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Contents Contents

  • IGEM Structure (Brief)

IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Initial Results of Japan (

Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

  • Future Research Plan

Future Research Plan

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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3

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Theory Review

Theory Review

  • Economic Theories : Macro Economics,

Economic Theories : Macro Economics, International Economics, Energy Economics, International Economics, Energy Economics, Environment Economics, Economic Development, Environment Economics, Economic Development, Computable General Equilibrium Computable General Equilibrium

  • Econometric (Statistic) Theories: Statistic

Econometric (Statistic) Theories: Statistic Inference, Estimation Methodologies & Inference, Estimation Methodologies & Techniques, Data Handling Techniques, Data Handling

  • Engineering/Technology: Assessment of

Engineering/Technology: Assessment of Technology Specifications, Cost Evaluation Technology Specifications, Cost Evaluation

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Characteristics

Characteristics

  • Country

Country-

  • specific Hybrid Model

specific Hybrid Model

  • Three Countries : China, Japan, Korea

Three Countries : China, Japan, Korea

  • Open Macro Economic Model

Open Macro Economic Model

  • Econometric/CGE Model

Econometric/CGE Model

  • Energy/GHG Emission Model

Energy/GHG Emission Model

  • Link with Bottom

Link with Bottom-

  • up Model (Hard Linkage)

up Model (Hard Linkage)

  • CDM Analysis Model

CDM Analysis Model

  • Project

Project-

  • base Analysis

base Analysis

  • Bilateral Financial Flows

Bilateral Financial Flows

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Characteristics

Characteristics

  • Estimation Methods

Estimation Methods

  • Unit Root Test: Statistical Test for Non

Unit Root Test: Statistical Test for Non-

  • Stationary

Stationary Variables Variables

  • Co

Co-

  • integration Method : Most Advanced Statistic

integration Method : Most Advanced Statistic (Econometric) Inference to Estimate Long (Econometric) Inference to Estimate Long-

  • run

run Relationships Relationships

  • Error

Error-

  • Correction Method: To Estimate Short

Correction Method: To Estimate Short-

  • run

run Variations (Equilibrium Condition) Variations (Equilibrium Condition)

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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6

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Characteristics

Characteristics

  • Estimation Methods

Estimation Methods

  • Kalman

Kalman Filter Technique: The Application of Electric Filter Technique: The Application of Electric Engineering Signal, Allowing Time Engineering Signal, Allowing Time-

  • varying

varying Coefficient Estimation Coefficient Estimation

  • Autoregressive

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Specification(ARDL): Distributed Lag Specification(ARDL): ARDL(1,1) is specified. ARDL(1,1) is specified.

  • System Estimation Method: To Capture the Inter

System Estimation Method: To Capture the Inter-

  • fuel

fuel Substitution in Energy Demand Equations Substitution in Energy Demand Equations

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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7

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Characteristics

Characteristics

  • CGE Methods

CGE Methods

  • Open/Dynamic/ Multi

Open/Dynamic/ Multi-

  • Sector Model

Sector Model

  • Capital Accumulation with AEEI and International

Capital Accumulation with AEEI and International Financial Flows for CDM Analysis Financial Flows for CDM Analysis

  • Multi

Multi-

  • tier KLEM Production Function with

tier KLEM Production Function with Armington Armington Assumption Assumption

  • Fuel

Fuel-

  • substitution Elasticity from

substitution Elasticity from Econometic Econometic Estimation (Localization of Parameters) Estimation (Localization of Parameters)

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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8

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • Characteristics

Characteristics

  • CGE Methods

CGE Methods

  • Five Blocks: Production, Private Consumption,

Five Blocks: Production, Private Consumption, Gov Gov’ ’t t & Public, Investment, Foreign Sectors & Public, Investment, Foreign Sectors

  • Production Sector: 9 Energy

Production Sector: 9 Energy-

  • producing Sectors,

producing Sectors, Energy intensive Industries, Transport, Service Energy intensive Industries, Transport, Service

  • Consumption Sector: Stone &

Consumption Sector: Stone & Geary Geary Utility Utility Function (Max.) Function (Max.) Linear Expenditure System Linear Expenditure System

  • Gov

Gov’ ’t t Sector: Income (Tax) Sector: Income (Tax) vs

  • vs. Expenditure

. Expenditure

  • Net

Net Gov Gov’ ’t t Savings Savings

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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9

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • 8 Modules

8 Modules

  • Macro Economic Module

Macro Economic Module

  • Demand Side of an Economy

Demand Side of an Economy

  • Simple

Simple Keynesian Keynesian Open Macro Economic Model Open Macro Economic Model Example: Consumption Function Example: Consumption Function

  • Error Correction Model (Short

Error Correction Model (Short-

  • run)

run)

  • Co

Co-

  • Integration Model (Long

Integration Model (Long-

  • run)

run)

  • Time

Time-

  • varying Coefficient (If necessary)

varying Coefficient (If necessary) β β, , δ δ1

1,

, δ δ2

2

( )

( )

∆ ∆ ∆

∆

C C y C a a y a r a W u

t t t m t t m t t C t

= + + − + + + +

− − − − − −

δ δ β

1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 ,

C a a y a r a W

t t m t t

= + + +

1 2 3

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • 8 Modules

8 Modules

  • Bilateral Financial Module

Bilateral Financial Module

  • Linkage between Two Countries

Linkage between Two Countries

  • CDM Project: Financial Flow Analysis

CDM Project: Financial Flow Analysis

  • Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Module

Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Module

  • Input

Input-

  • Output Tables of Each Country

Output Tables of Each Country

  • Energy Balance Table

Energy Balance Table

  • Social Account Matrix (SAM) Construction

Social Account Matrix (SAM) Construction

  • Sector Classification: Flexible

Sector Classification: Flexible

  • Localization of Parameters for Calibration: Based on

Localization of Parameters for Calibration: Based on Estimation, if possible. Estimation, if possible.

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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11

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • 8 Modules

8 Modules

  • Energy Demand Module

Energy Demand Module

  • Each End

Each End-

  • use Final Energy Demand

use Final Energy Demand

  • Sector Classification: Flexible (Data Availability)

Sector Classification: Flexible (Data Availability)

  • Econometric Estimation

Econometric Estimation

  • GHG emissions are deriving.

GHG emissions are deriving.

  • Energy Supply Module

Energy Supply Module

  • Energy supply is assumed to meet demand.

Energy supply is assumed to meet demand. (Equilibrium Assumption) (Equilibrium Assumption)

  • Transformation Sector: Engineering Approach to

Transformation Sector: Engineering Approach to Figure out Primary Energy Demand Figure out Primary Energy Demand

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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12

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • 8 Modules

8 Modules

  • Linkage Module

Linkage Module

  • Technical Assessment of CDM Project: Bottom

Technical Assessment of CDM Project: Bottom-

  • up

up approach is preferable. approach is preferable.

  • Hard Linkage with Bottom

Hard Linkage with Bottom-

  • up Model: AIM (maybe)

up Model: AIM (maybe)

  • Advantage of Hard Linkage: IGEM can be tangible

Advantage of Hard Linkage: IGEM can be tangible

  • model. (Soft linkage makes the model large.)
  • model. (Soft linkage makes the model large.)
  • Still, the soft linkage of top

Still, the soft linkage of top-

  • down and bottom

down and bottom-

  • up

up models is the most challenging work. models is the most challenging work.

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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13

IGEM Structure (Brief) IGEM Structure (Brief)

  • 8 Modules

8 Modules

  • Scenario Module

Scenario Module

  • Scenario Generator: Systematic Way

Scenario Generator: Systematic Way

  • Marginal Change Analysis: Due to CDM project, what

Marginal Change Analysis: Due to CDM project, what is the deviation from is the deviation from BaU BaU projection, in terms of projection, in terms of energy, GHG emission energy, GHG emission

  • Output Module

Output Module

  • Output Generation: Economic Activities, Energy,

Output Generation: Economic Activities, Energy, GHG Emissions GHG Emissions

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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14

Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Energy Demand (Residential Sector) Energy Demand (Residential Sector)

20 40 60 80 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MTOE Coal Oil Gas Electricity

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Energy Demand (Commercial Sector) Energy Demand (Commercial Sector)

20 40 60 80 100 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MTOE Coal Oil Gas Electricity

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Energy Demand (Transportation Sector) Energy Demand (Transportation Sector)

50 100 150 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MTOE Oil Electricity

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Energy Demand (Industrial Sector) Energy Demand (Industrial Sector)

50 100 150 200 250 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MTOE Coal Oil Gas Electricity

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Comparison with Other Models Comparison with Other Models

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 IGES 2000 APERC 2000 IGES 2005 APERC 2005 IGES 2010 APERC 2010 IEEJ 2010 IGES 2020 IEEJ 2020 MTOE ResCom Transport Industrial

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

CO CO2

2 Emissions (Residential Sector)

Emissions (Residential Sector)

5 10 15 20 25 30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MT-C Coal Oil Gas

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

CO CO2

2 Emissions (Commercial Sector)

Emissions (Commercial Sector)

5 10 15 20 25 30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MT-C Coal Oil Gas

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

CO CO2

2 Emissions (Transportation Sector)

Emissions (Transportation Sector)

20 40 60 80 100 120 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MT-C Diesel Gasoline Heavy Oil LPG Zet Oil

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

CO CO2

2 Emissions (Industrial Sector)

Emissions (Industrial Sector)

30 60 90 120 150 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MT-C Coal Oil Gas

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

CO CO2

2 Emissions (Power Generation Sector)

Emissions (Power Generation Sector)

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

50 100 150 200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MT-C

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Initial Results of Japan ( Initial Results of Japan (BaU BaU) )

Comparison with Other Models Comparison with Other Models

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0

IGES 2000 APERC 2000 AIM(T) 2000 IGES 2005 APERC 2005 AIM(T) 2005 IGES 2010 APERC 2010 AIM(T) 2010 IEEJ 2010 IGES 2020 AIM(T) 2020 IEEJ 2020

MT-C Final End-Use Power Gen. Total

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Future Research Plan Future Research Plan

  • CDM Analysis (by April, 2000)

CDM Analysis (by April, 2000)

  • First Stage: CDM between Japan and China

First Stage: CDM between Japan and China

  • Feasible CDM Projects: To Collect Information

Feasible CDM Projects: To Collect Information

  • Analysis based on IGEM

Analysis based on IGEM

  • Final Results (after April, 2000)

Final Results (after April, 2000)

  • To Complete Three Countries Analysis

To Complete Three Countries Analysis

  • To Report the

To Report the ResultsBased ResultsBased on IGEM

  • n IGEM
  • To Disseminate Outputs in Various Occasions

To Disseminate Outputs in Various Occasions

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea

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Future Research Plan Future Research Plan

  • Expansion to Other Countries (May, 2000

Expansion to Other Countries (May, 2000 -

  • )

)

  • India

India

  • Russia

Russia

  • Joint Implementation Analysis

Joint Implementation Analysis

IGES, Japan/Hanyang University, Korea