Identifying an accurate metric for football efficiency Tim Chou - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Identifying an accurate metric for football efficiency Tim Chou Football Coach

Introduction: What’s the problem? • Defense industry – Stuck doing business the same way we did in the 80’s • Coaching football – Running the same drills we’ve done for 50 years • Moneyball – Thinking they can out-scout/out-coach everyone else “That’s just the way we’ve always done things…”

Current (old) Football Metrics • Defense – Total yards & points on defense – Yards per play – 3 rd down conversion % – Turnovers • Offense – Total yards & points on offense – Yards per play – 3 rd down conversion % – Quarterback Rating – Time of possession • Special Teams – Touchdowns scored – Yards gained Are these the right metrics? NO!

Correlations using old metrics YPG O vs Win% YPG D vs Win% 120% 120% 100% 100% R² = 0.2647 80% 80% YPG R² = 0.2466 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 PPG O vs Win% PPG D vs Win% 120% 120% R² = 0.5046 100% 100% PPG 80% 80% R² = 0.4873 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offense Defense

What is the correct metric? • Can one determine objectively, using numbers, how “good” a team is? – Identify a new way of accurately measuring how good a football team is. • How do we measure how good a special teams unit is? The answer is measuring EFFICIENCY

Efficiency and Metrics • Efficiency – Describes the extent to which time, effort or cost is well used for the intended task or purpose. – Typically it measures the capability of a specific application of effort to produce a specific outcome effectively. • Metrics – Performance metrics, a measure of an organization's activities and performance . Operational metrics are used in manufacturing and distribution to measure efficiency and effectiveness. – an analytical measurement intended to quantify the state of a system.

The NEW measure of efficiency • Measure an offense by how many yards they need to gain to earn one point • Measure a defense by how many yards they force an offense to gain to earn one point Total Yards (offense) / Total Points (offense) = Yards per point (offense) Total Yards (defense) / Total Points (defense) = Yards per point (defense) Yards per point (defense) – Yards per point (offense) = Yards per point differential How many yards do you need to earn to gain one point?

Examining Yards per point Yppoint differential distribution 18 Yards per point differential vs Win% 16 100% 14 12 75% 10 R² = 0.771 8 50% 6 4 25% 2 0% 0 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -9 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 12 Yards per point Based on 2012 NCAA Division 1 college football stats (120 teams)

2012 CFB Yards per point differential YPP O YPP D Diff BCS AP TEAM Rank Rank Rank DIFF w/ SOS Win% Rank rank Alabama 7 2 2 15.52 92% 2 2 Notre Dame 91 1 1 14.47 100% 1 1 Florida 27 4 3 13.07 92% 3 4 Kansas State 1 18 5 10.40 92% 5 7 Stanford 45 8 12 10.21 85% 6 8 Georgia 18 11 11 10.17 85% 7 6 Oregon 2 21 10 10.16 92% 4 5 South Carolina 10 15 13 9.47 83% 10 11 Texas A&M 20 22 17 8.86 83% 9 10 Oregon State 51 16 21 8.53 75% 13 15 Note: win% is NOT part of the calculation Based on 2012 NCAA Division 1 college football stats (120 teams) as of the end of the regular season

2011 CFB Yards per point differential YPP O YPP D Diff BCS AP TEAM Rank Rank Rank DIFF w/ SOS Win% Rank rank LSU 1 1 1 22.42 93% 1 1 Alabama 18 3 3 16.90 92% 2 2 Oklahoma State 6 13 8 9.39 92% 3 3 Wisconsin 3 15 4 9.35 79% 10 9 Arkansas 11 28 15 8.43 85% 6 7 Stanford 7 27 12 8.38 85% 4 4 Temple 24 2 2 7.97 69% Oregon 8 31 13 7.29 86% 5 6 Cincinnati 10 7 5 7.19 77% Kansas State 2 65 19 7.03 77% 8 11 Note: win% is NOT part of the calculation Based on 2012 NCAA Division 1 college football stats (120 teams) as of the end of the regular season

Future applications • Impacts coaching schemes, game preparation, play calling, and even game time decisions – Identify the target YPP differential (>5) – Set targets YPP on offense (<13) and defense (>18) • Allows for a different perspective on player management: one step closer to “ Moneyball ” – Manage risk and performance similar to an investment portfolio • Changes to calculations for betting lines

Takeaways • We can use the data to draw some conclusions… – Efficiency appears to be a much better measure of how good a football team is – Coaches can use this metric to change their philosophy on offense, defense, and special teams – GM’s can use this metric as a foundation for making player decisions

Questions?

Backup

Top Offenses (unweighted) O YPPoint TEAM YPG O PPG O RANK O YPPoint Kansas State 410.4 40.7 1 10.09 Oregon 550.1 50.8 2 10.82 Louisiana Tech 577.9 51.5 3 11.22 Kent State 391.2 34.6 4 11.30 UCF 400.7 35.2 5 11.37 Ohio State 423.8 37.2 6 11.40 Alabama 439.1 38.5 7 11.42 San Diego State 407.8 35.1 8 11.62 Florida State 465.9 39.9 9 11.67 South Carolina 372.4 31.4 10 11.85 Does not account for strength of schedule Based on 2012 NCAA Division 1 college football stats (120 teams) as of the end of the regular season

Top Defenses (unweighted) D YPPoint TEAM YPG D PPG D RANK D YPPoint Notre Dame 286.83 10.33 1 27.76 Alabama 246 10.69 2 23.01 Rutgers 321.25 14.25 3 22.54 Florida 283.42 12.92 4 21.94 Cincinnati 373.75 17.17 5 21.77 Utah State 322.67 15.42 6 20.93 Boise State 304.67 14.92 7 20.42 Stanford 338.92 17.46 8 19.41 Iowa State 444.83 23.33 9 19.06 Northern Illinois 356.69 19 10 18.77 Does not account for strength of schedule Based on 2012 NCAA Division 1 college football stats (120 teams) as of the end of the regular season

Yards per point differential vs Win% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% R² = 0.771 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00

Case Studies • Arkansas high school – Never punt – Always onside kick • Oregon/Auburn’s hurry up no huddle offense – Time of possession is NOT a significant factor to winning or losing • Other unorthodox methods?

NFL playoffs (cont.) • Conference Championship – New England (5.75) beats Denver (2.86) – Seattle (6.38) beats Green Bay (2.75) • Superbowl – Seattle (6.38) beats New England (5.75)

Let’s put it to the test… NFL playoffs • Wildcard Weekend – Baltimore (2.15) beat Indianapolis (-0.77) – Packers (2.75) beat Minnesota (1.88) – Seattle (6.38) beat Washington(1.51) – Houston (1.32) beat Cincinnati (2.37) • Divisional Playoffs – Denver (2.86) beat Baltimore (2.15) – New England (5.75) beat Houston (1.32) – Green Bay (2.75) beat San Francisco (2.67) – Seattle (6.38) beat Atlanta (5.47)